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Possible mechanism of abrupt jump in winter surface air temperature in the late 1980s over the Northern Hemisphere

October 31, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

 

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023864/pdf

 

I have often alluded to an apparent shift change in UK temperatures in the late 1980s, something which also seems to have happened in other parts of NW Europe.

It was with interest then that my attention was drawn to the above paper, which found the same phenomena in winter temperatures, not only in the UK, but also all over the Northern Hemisphere and attempted to explain it.

Here is the Abstract: 

 

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The authors point out that many other studies have found the same abrupt winter climate change, and have all offered various theories.

The study uses examples at Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing to highlight the size of this shift:

 

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And comments:

 

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We can do the same analysis for the UK, where the shift seems to have occurred around 1988. The mean for 1988 to 2016 is almost a full degree higher than the 1955 to 1987 mean.

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt 

 

In the UK, at least, this step change is not confined to winter. Annual temperatures also exhibit a significant shift after 1988, this time of 0.8C.

 

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt

 

The Kim paper argues that this shift was caused by changes in atmospheric pressure and circulation. I have no comment either way on this. But what does seem clear is that there is no obvious role for CO2 in any of this, as there is no explanation of how it could cause such abrupt changes.

While the paper’s conclusions make the obligatory reference to global warming, it finishes:

 

In this work, we did not address the issue regarding whether or not the change in regional dynamics can be associated with global warming. For that purpose, we need to carry out global warming experiments with climate models and/or analyze outputs CMIP5 models under different warming scenarios.

14 Comments leave one →
  1. October 31, 2016 5:25 pm

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
    Then there was the ‘climate shift’ of 76/77 which seems to be about one solar cycle’s worth of years earlier than the one featured in the post.

    LAMONT-DOHERTY EARTH OBSERVATORY – The 76/77 climate shift
    http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/arch/climate_shift.shtml

  2. Broadlands permalink
    October 31, 2016 5:57 pm

    It might be worth noting that 1987 saw the warmest ANNUAL year El-Nino index since 1950. Calendar year or Seasonal year ONI = 1.23. Since 1987 the calendar year ONI has steadily declined reaching zero in 2014. CO2 has risen 50 ppm since 1987.

  3. Francis Bowkett permalink
    October 31, 2016 6:51 pm

    I was not previously aware of this abrupt change in temperatures. Curious.

    Francis

    >

  4. tom0mason permalink
    October 31, 2016 11:07 pm

    I had, many years ago, made the point that with solar radiance changes it is perfectly reasonable for the atmosphere to change in unexpected ways — such as changes in the size and shape of atmospheric cells. These cells are not rigid and wobble about globe with prevailing weather pattern change. Overall the atmospheric temperature/pressures (and humidity?) globally would vary only slightly, but within the cells the changes could be quite drastic as the solar effect takes hold. I could not image these changes could happen quickly as I would have thought they only happen after major changes in solar output had happened for an extended period of time (more than one solar cycle).

    Needless to say I was ridiculed for such ideas by warmist anywhere I mentioned such ideas.

    Nice to see others with more resources had similar ideas and acted on them.

  5. RAH permalink
    October 31, 2016 11:09 pm

    “In this work, we did not address the issue regarding whether or not the change in regional dynamics can be associated with global warming. For that purpose, we need to carry out global warming experiments with climate models and/or analyze outputs CMIP5 models under different warming scenarios.”

    A dry lab?

  6. AndyG55 permalink
    October 31, 2016 11:27 pm

    In the Japan surface data too.

  7. November 1, 2016 8:57 am

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

  8. November 1, 2016 10:35 am

    Well, I’ve been telling everyone pretty much that since 2007.

    Latest iteration here:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/

  9. dennisambler permalink
    November 1, 2016 10:35 am

    From 1986-90, CET went up by 1.89 degrees C, translating to 3.78 deg C per decade! Now that was global warming…..

    Check out the phase change in Alaska in 1977/8

    http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/bowling/FANB.html

    The same thing happens with the CET in 1987, remove the data point for 1987, do a line graph from say 1964 and you will see the same effect.

  10. Kelvin Vaughan permalink
    November 1, 2016 1:47 pm

    The same thing happened to the CET about 1900. The trendline from 1900 to 1988 is fairly flat.

    It is going up in steps of about 1°C each time.

  11. Ben Vorlich permalink
    November 1, 2016 4:43 pm

    Surely if winter shows a sudden jump, and none of the other three season change or change very little then the annual temperature is bound to increase as well. Which as you say is difficult to attribute to something which is supposed to be present throughout the year.

  12. John Medlock permalink
    November 1, 2016 6:01 pm

    Is there a link here to the sudden release of up to 1.6 million tonnes of CO2 from Lake Nyos in Cameroon in 1986 following on from a similar event at lake Monoun in 1984 or is that not a significant event?

    • Adam Gallon permalink
      November 1, 2016 9:12 pm

      No. Like a fart in a cathedral.

  13. November 1, 2016 7:46 pm

    Reblogged this on I Didn't Ask To Be a Blog.

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