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Oil demand won’t peak before 2040, despite Paris deal: IEA

November 16, 2016
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 




I won’t say I told you, but I did!


From Reuters:


LONDON (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to peak no sooner than 2040, leaving its long-term forecasts for supply and demand unchanged despite the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement entering into force.

The Paris accord to cut harmful emissions seeks to wean the world economy off fossil fuels in the second half of the century in an effort to limit the rise in average world temperatures to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times.

But while demand for oil to power passenger cars, for example, may drop, other sectors may offset this fall.

"The difficulty of finding alternatives to oil in road freight, aviation and petrochemicals means that, up to 2040, the growth in these three sectors alone is greater than the growth in global oil demand," the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook.

From 2020, the European Union will impose much tougher legislation to control vehicle emissions, which many expect to quickly erode use of traditional fuels such as gasoline and diesel, a major source of oil demand.

In the report, the IEA looks at three scenarios for oil supply and demand. Its central, or "New Policies", scenario assumes signatory countries will attempt to meet the requirements set by Paris, as well as existing environmental legislation, while its "450 scenario" assumes signatories will adhere to the agreement and oil demand will fall off sharply and the "current policies" scenario does not factor in the Paris deal.

The IEA’s central scenario assumes demand will reach 103.5 million barrels per day by 2040 from 92.5 million bpd in 2015, for which India will be the leading source of demand growth and China will overtake the United States to become the single largest oil-consuming nation.



Are you listening Mark Carney?

  1. tom0mason permalink
    November 16, 2016 11:59 am

    A peak in 2040. Now where have I heard that before? Oh yes, that’s when coal will peak also, as reported back in February. And those figures never factored in the possible changes that Trump could have on coal consumption.

    So by 2040 both oil and coal should be running the show, and the human CO2 emissions are apparently now starting to fall, how strange. ( )

    My prediction is that despite people burning more fuel worldwide, the global CO2 figures will continue to drop causing the climate scientists to rejig their adjustments across the board. Or come up with a fancy theory that the CO2 is trapped in the snow deposited over large areas of Eurasia and North America.

  2. November 16, 2016 12:22 pm

    Donald Trump won all 55 counties in West Virginia. In the 2014 elections, the West Virginia Legislature came under Republican control for the first time in 83 years. Obama and Sen. Manchin mounted an unsuccessful bid to oust Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Obama was peeved that Morrisey has successfully led a group of AG’s against EPA regulations. Manchin was out of joint because Morrisey was suing Mylan Pharmaceuticals over his daughter, Heather Bresch’s, Epipen disaster. We also ousted one of George Soros’ Secretary of State picks in favor of retired Army Colonel Mac Warner, a West Point graduate and JAG officer with an international law license. Our new Agriculture Commissioner, a retired Marine Colonel, is also hot on the trail of the EPA over the waters grab.

    Maybe we owe Barry a thank you for hastening the flipping of WV from a century of blue to bright red.

  3. November 16, 2016 1:56 pm

    In answer to the question. No he isn’t and neither are the Government, its bureaucrats and its advisers.

  4. SteveB permalink
    November 16, 2016 3:24 pm

    More good news …..

    • Dung permalink
      November 16, 2016 9:44 pm

      Amen to that brother 🙂 (peak-oil-idefinitely-postponed).
      GWPF today: “The U.S. Geological Survey has made its largest discovery of recoverable crude ever under parts of West Texas”
      A recent assessment found the “Wolfcamp shale” geologic formation in the Midland area holds an estimated 20 billion barrels of accessible oil along with 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1.6 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. That’s three times higher than the amount of recoverable crude the agency found in the Bakken-Three Forks region in the upper midwest in 2013, making it “the largest estimated continuous oil accumulation that USGS has assessed in the United States to date

  5. November 16, 2016 11:17 pm

    The IEA’s central scenario assumes demand will reach 103.5 million barrels per day by 2040 from 92.5 million bpd in 2015

    I like to check figures. From the EIA can be obtained some historical data, with slightly different figures for 2015 are the following in mbpd – 1995 70, 2005 85, 2015 96. The 11 mbpd increase over the next 25 years is the same as over the last 10 years. The estimate seems a bit low. Shale oil still has not peaked; the Brazilians have made a total hash of developing their offshore; the Gulf of Mexico could yield a lot more; and the current under-producing countries of Venezuela, Iraq and Iran could be producing significantly more. There is every sign of production rising, and with lower prices demand as well.

  6. Swisspeasant permalink
    November 17, 2016 11:28 am

    The Stone age did not end when they ran out of stone. It ended when they developed better technology.
    There will be plenty oil left for other purposes when we develop better technology for heating lighting and mobility.

    • tom0mason permalink
      November 18, 2016 6:07 am

      So far there is no better technology for mobility than oil based engine technology. Burning coal or running nuclear are the only cost effective methods for heating and lighting.

      Everything else that is being (or has been) tried turns into a very expensive mistake. We need fewer scientists and ‘technologist’, especially the government type, and more engineering talent.

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