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NOAA Erase “Anomalously Cold Winters”

January 4, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/climate/cold-climate-change.html

 

We looked at this NYT article earlier today. It focussed on this paper by Marlene Kretschmer:

 

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ABSTRACT

Over the last decades, the stratospheric polar vortex has shifted towards more frequent weak states which can explain Eurasian cooling trends in boreal winter in the era of Arctic amplification.

The extra-tropical stratosphere in boreal winter is characterized by a strong circumpolar westerly jet, confining the coldest temperatures at high latitudes. The jet, referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex, is predominantly zonal and centered around the pole; however, it does exhibit large variability in wind speed and location. Previous studies showed that a weak stratospheric polar vortex can lead to cold-air outbreaks in the mid-latitudes but the exact relationships and mechanisms are unclear. Particularly, it is unclear whether stratospheric variability has contributed to the observed anomalous cooling trends in mid-latitude Eurasia. Using hierarchical clustering, we show that over the last 37 years, the frequency of weak vortex states in mid to late winter (January and February) has increased which were accompanied by subsequent cold extremes in mid-latitude Eurasia. For this region 60% of the observed cooling in the era of Arctic amplification, i.e. since 1990, can be explained by the increased frequency of weak stratospheric polar vortex states, a number which increases to almost 80% when El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is included as well.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1

 

The paper makes this specific comment:

 

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But what do NOAA say about recent winters in the Northeastern United States?

 

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 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/101/0/tavg/3/2/1895-2017?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

The winters of 2013/14 a,d 2014/15 were a bit colder than average, but there have been many more winters in the last century, which were much colder.

The claim about “anomalously” cold winters simply does not hold water.

All of which brings us back to the massive temperature adjustments made by NOAA. Has Kretschmer been making up data to suit her case?

Or are NOAA’s adjustments wrong, and recent winters really have been anomalously cold?

 

Of course, looking at the winter season average as a whole might cover up unusual warmth and cold.

When she introduced her work on the subject in 2014, Jennifer Francis specifically referred to the severe cold snap that affected the Northeast in January and February 2014, using it as an example.

The cold weather began on Jan 2nd, and lasted into April.

Yet again NOAA show absolutely nothing unusual going on in either of those months..

 

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multigraph

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/101/0/tavg/1/1/1895-2017?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

 

Put very simply, NOAA’s temperature record bears no relevance to reality.

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39 Comments
  1. January 4, 2018 5:59 pm

    Interesting.

    I wonder how many independent temperature records there are in New England that could be used to confirm temperatures over the last five to ten years. Here in sunny Arizona I started logging temperature and humidity every three minutes and storing the data on my personal computer.

    But what you bring up Paul, is intriguing; how can there be “record-breaking” cold, and NOAA shows no such thing. Hmmm… You can bet however that the sunny, wonderfully warm weather we are blessed with this year so far here in Phoenix will show up on some government climate page as “extreme weather”!

  2. Tim permalink
    January 4, 2018 6:09 pm

    Paul, I have been trying to find the St Petersburg climatologist who is predicting a little ice age. Could you please remind me of his name, and the link to his paper? If you can find a link to the Russian paper that would be even better, since I am sure I can produce a better translation

  3. January 4, 2018 6:17 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  4. tom0mason permalink
    January 4, 2018 6:39 pm

    NOAA has found all this temperature regionality a great problem for progressing the ‘climate science™’, therefore the temperature data and now the temperature extreme records, especially the “anomalously” cold records, require more intense homogenisation.
    As NOAA knows the more you homogenize the data the clear the details get.

    /sarc-off

  5. Broadlands permalink
    January 4, 2018 6:57 pm

    NOAA data reveal that since 1998 (record El-Nino) the winter (DJF) average temperatures for the Northeast region, as well as for the entire contiguous US have been trending downward at the decadal level… through 2016.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/tavg/3/2/1998-2016?trend=true&trend_base=10&firsttrendyear=1998&lasttrendyear=2016

  6. John F. Hultquist permalink
    January 4, 2018 7:04 pm

    Averaging makes everything better.
    Place one foot in ice water, the other in hot water.
    “On average” you will feel just fine.

    The current North American cold is going to be split between the last week of December 2017 and the first week of January 2018. Each month’s average will be “just right.”

    There are nice little books:
    “How to Lie With Statistics.”
    Darrell Huff (1954); mine is a 1960 version.
    Another:
    “How to Lie with Maps”
    by Mark Monmonier (1991, 1996)

  7. Richard Woollaston permalink
    January 4, 2018 7:17 pm

    On a related topic, but anecdotal rather than scientific, I recently observed the effect of UHIs on extremely cold weather. I set off on a trip early one morning and the car thermometer read -9 degrees C. When I approached the motorway just 3 miles away and still about 3 miles from the nearest town, the temp started to rise. On the motorway it steadied at -3 degrees C. Cold temperatures would seem to be particularly prone to the UHI effect.

    • RAH permalink
      January 5, 2018 1:08 am

      I see it frequently. Not only on my truck thermometer but here where I live. I live in a semi rural area. My temps here about always 1 to 3 degrees F under what Accuweather and such services show for Anderson, IN which is the closest city (population about 75,000) of any size which in my county. Tuesday morning this week was the coldest we’ve seen here during this winter and in fact the coldest I have recorded since 2001 when we moved into this house. My thermometer here read -13 F at 03:00 EST. Accuweather had it at -11 in Anderson. Two hours later I was at work starting my truck and it’s thermometer read -15 F. I have always said that the location of the terminal where I truck my truck is the coldest spot in the county.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        January 5, 2018 11:36 am

        I live in a hamlet of half a dozen houses along a (very) minor road. I see a difference of +1’C on cold mornings (8am) when I go to the shop in the local large village/small town which is just over 1km away as the crow flies and about 10m higher in altitude.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      January 5, 2018 9:44 am

      I live in central London and used to work out West of the city. In the winter, on many cold mornings, as soon as I hit the Green Belt, ponds and standing water would be frozen, whilst around my home not at all.

      And of course in the winter London will have rain whilst all around the city it will be snowing.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        January 5, 2018 1:53 pm

        Agree completely. I have seen a difference from country to London suburbs of 5C on a summer night. More surprising was a difference of 4C between my house and the surrounds of Gatwick Airport a few weeks back and that is only 8 miles.

  8. January 4, 2018 7:20 pm

    Their 37 year trend – compared to what?

    How about comparing it to another cycle of global warming, say early 1900’s to about 1945.

    Might not a similar pattern (not that they found one here) be found?

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      January 5, 2018 9:46 am

      Compared to…yes, i see so many papers like this, that claim a trend and claim it is anomalous but don’t have any comparison data. Which means the paper is literally nonsense.

      There was one the other day that showed birth weight against distance from fracking sites, but didn’t provide the data for birth weights before the fracking. So who knows if fracking is to blame for whatever they claimed? They just assumed that before fracking the birth weights didn’t vary.

  9. markl permalink
    January 4, 2018 8:04 pm

    NOAA is in the doghouse with the Trump administration for altering data to suit the AGW agenda. Hopefully something will come of it. Trump won’t back down.

  10. Chris Lynch permalink
    January 4, 2018 9:25 pm

    It’s indicative of just how unaccountable and untouchable organisations like NOAA think they are that they are quite openly fiddling with the data in the belief that no one in authority will ever call them to account.

  11. January 4, 2018 10:41 pm

    Paul see this : They mean
    150 Global NON-Warming Graphs From 2017 Pummel Claims Of Unusual Modern Warmth
    http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/01/150-non-global-warming-graphs-from-2017-pummel-claims-of-unusual-modern-warmth

    • January 5, 2018 1:58 am

      JD seems to have hit a nerve with his Breitbart piece – 4500 comments and ticking upwards rapidly – almost like the old days when he blogged at the Daily Telegraph….

      • R2Dtoo permalink
        January 5, 2018 3:51 pm

        The church of global warming has a sizeable congregation! They get brownie points for jumping on realists.

  12. Frank permalink
    January 5, 2018 3:27 am

    I could show you that if I had a good camera to make a video with. It is THE truth at my local NWS office. I can’t say it is all cold er than normal winters, but it is many of the coldest one here by me.

  13. January 5, 2018 3:34 am

    Reblogged this on cosmoscon.

    • dave permalink
      January 5, 2018 1:38 pm

      Now THIS is what happens when Mother Nature decides to tweak our noses with REAL cold.
      600,000 people died in France.

      It was during the ‘Maunder Minimum’ of sunspot activity. We may soon be there again (a quiet sun.)

  14. Athelstan permalink
    January 5, 2018 12:05 pm

    “NOAA’s temperature record bears no relevance to reality.”

    UN, WMO nothing to do with it, wheels within wheels and all.

    Mind you, with the Wet Office – they aren’t much better with sleight,, bogus statistical slice and dice and making arrrant prognostication which bears no relation whatsoever to the reality.

    NOAA, Wet Office, CRU – PIK, Mannism @ Penn State, they’re all fekkin government paid/funded shills and therefore inveterate liars.

    Imperil the future, what future if: no heat and power?,,,,,

    The aforementioned outrageously pretend to be seekers of knowledge – but what they actually search for are, places to massacre then bury the truth [ref blogpost]. These malignant ‘men’ are very dangerous people because as we ALL know – cold kills and ruinables can’t cope.
    Though, it always leads me to consider, was it all done through and by purposeful design? Because if, you require to wreck the western economic model then by making electricity ridiculously expensive and damaging a reliable power generating and grid system – then what better way than via the transport of the ‘great green myth’ and enforcing the taxpayer to pay for birdmincers and even more useless PV arrays?

    Thus we observe and in a sordid alliance, in cahoots with the political/corporate elite – it’s all in large part – when the lights go out – it will be laid at their doors £$€ Trillions of taxpayers dosh just vamoosed………………..and for what?…………

    though by then, you won’t be able to see them for dust.

    We’ll go looking though, till the ends of the earth.

  15. Tom O permalink
    January 5, 2018 1:00 pm

    One of the interesting, to me, at least, things about the studies of these anomalous cold regions is how intriguingly they lie where the last ice age persisted. That is, they are the same regions that were buried in ice, or so it appears to me. I know, just a coincidence.

  16. Gerry, England permalink
    January 5, 2018 2:00 pm

    ‘….but the exact relationships and mechanisms are unclear.’

    Hey, what ever happened to the settled science? Surely this can’t be so as the models have this covered, right? Right? Or does this actually mean that the science is far from settled and the models are as we have seen, utter rubbish?

  17. George Let permalink
    January 5, 2018 2:18 pm

    So Indoctrinated! Their starting point is always that man-made climate change is a given.

  18. RogerJC permalink
    January 5, 2018 2:44 pm

    Having just watched the BBC lunchtime news reporting from a snowy New York where the temperature was -12 degs C and predicted to go down to -29 deg C overnight, I had to laugh at the reporter saying the Mayor of Boston was blaming it on Climate Change.

    • Athelstan permalink
      January 5, 2018 3:14 pm

      A Dumbocrat, of Irish extraction and New England Pats fan.

      Say no more ……..

      and here I might just add, I can also claim Irish (grand parent) extraction but not all of us are as thick.

    • dave permalink
      January 5, 2018 6:16 pm

      I had a friend who was brought up in rural Alberta in the 1940’s. He used to walk to and from school – a couple of miles. One January day he started to walk home with the thermometer at plus 35 F. Before he reached the half-way point it was MINUS 40 F and he collapsed. His father came out with a tractor, and saved his life.

      Again, in “Little House on the Prairie” Laura Ingalls relates how, in a cold 1870’s winter, her fiance once picked her up in his sleigh to journey from one hamlet to another. A blunder of the first order! She has to jump in with the vehicle moving and they fly away across the icy waste, covered completely in furs. It is soon clear to both, though, that “If the horse stops or falters for a second it will never recover and we will certainly die immediately!”

      That is – and always has been – the reality of ‘cold waves’ from the Arctic.

      • Athelstan permalink
        January 5, 2018 10:05 pm

        “One January day he started to walk home with the thermometer at plus 35 F. Before he reached the half-way point it was MINUS 40 F and he collapsed. His father came out with a tractor, and saved his life.”

        I used to walk a similar distance there and back from school, it could be a pain (usually wet) but nothing anywhere near to – 40F – crikey and thank the Lord his father came out to find him. Mind you, Alberta, hot summers, cold winters are the norm, in the UK we have a bit of chill, then sometimes relatively cold and then – there’s very cold, fortunately we don’t get Alberta type brrr freezing cold.

  19. January 6, 2018 10:12 pm

    They claim that Climate Change causes the Jet Stream to push supper cold weather south.
    So look at the other end of the see-saw …over the north of Norway to Centre north Siberia it should be super warm ..is this the case ?

    • January 6, 2018 10:15 pm

      I wouldn’t say that Australian weather was mega heat, but odd super warm day in different places throughout the week.

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