Weather Disasters as Proportion of Global GDP: 1990-2017
By Paul Homewood
A reminder from Roger Pielke Jr that weather disasters as a proportion of GDP continues to trend downwards, despite the spike in 2017, largely as a consequence of Hurricane Harvey.
The figure above shows the annual costs of weather disasters (data from Munich Re) as a proportion of global GDP (data from the UN), from 1990 to 2017.
Takeaways:
- 2017 ranks 2nd to 2005;
- The dataset is dominated by US hurricanes (accounting for about 70% of losses);
- The trend from 1990 to 2017 is downward;
- Mean and median are both 0.24%;
- 6 of past 10 years have been below average;
The most important caveat: don’t use disasters to argue about trends in climate. Use climate data. Duh. (Pielke 2015 below has an accessible summary of IPCC conclusions on trends in weather extremes. See also IPCC SREX and AR5 .) Trends in the incidence of extreme weather help to explain this graph as the world has experienced a long stretch of good fortune (see Pielke 2017, linked below).
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When the US action groups have homogenised and smoothed the data it will show that disaster costs are rocketing and make all the papers!
Note the subtle differences in wording insurance resellers Munich Re uses as sales-promotion material:
https://www.munichre.com/en/media-relations/publications/press-releases/2017/2017-01-04-press-release/index.html
Now fast forward:
Are these costs adjusted for inflation, especially for comparison with 20th century natural disasters?
A quick glance at the percentages actually involved puts this in perspective. Also notice that they don’t tie this to their profit/loss over the year. Insurance (and re-insurance) companies are doing very well – a real shame that they had to “cover” a whopping 30% of total damages (sarc). Buffet put this in perspective a couple of years ago when he openly admitted that Katrina had allowed an increase in rates and then the USA had more than a decade without major hurricanes (cha-ching!). He owns Geico – a huge cash-cow. Nice to see Dr. Pielke back in action – an honest broker (pun intended).
Meanwhile, ‘La Nina’ looks like she wants to hang around!
La Nina is gone according BOM in Australia
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI
BOM, like the BBC vomits fake news.