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New Solar Installations To Contract By 24% This Year

July 22, 2018

By Paul Homewood


Goldman Sachs are predicting a 24% drop in new global solar installations this year.

From Bloomberg:



Anyone following clean energy knew this could be a tough year for solar. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. just put a grim number on how bad.

The pace of global installations will contract by 24 percent in 2018, Goldman analysts led by Brian Lee said in a research note late Wednesday. That’s far more dire than the 3 percent decline forecast by Bloomberg NEF in the bleakest of three scenarios outlined in a report earlier this month. Credit Suisse Group AG is forecasting a 17 percent contraction.

The anticipated slowdown would mark the first time the solar market has shrunk. It comes after China announced in late May it was curbing utility-scale development in the world’s biggest market, pulling the plug on about 20 gigawatts of projects. That will reduce global installations to 75 gigawatts, down from 99 gigawatts in 2017, Lee said in an email.

“Lowering our coverage view to cautious, we believe oversupply is set to continue in the near-to-medium term as demand from the largest solar markets remains tepid,” Lee wrote in the research note.

JinkoSolar Holding Co., the world’s largest panel maker, fell as much as 3.2 percent, the most intraday in a week. The Bloomberg Intelligence Global Large Solar index declined as much as 2.1 percent.

  1. saparonia permalink
    July 22, 2018 10:18 am

    Perchance people have noticed the Sun is in Solar Minimum

    • Ian Magness permalink
      July 22, 2018 10:48 am

      I think, Saparonia, that’s it’s more likely that the peoples of the world, especially in the northern hemisphere, have passed the cognitive minimum required to support growth in this industry.

    • July 22, 2018 1:45 pm

      In the UK we’ve not had this much sun since 1976. Solar PV readings booming.

      • Joe Public permalink
        July 22, 2018 8:26 pm

        “Solar PV readings booming.”

        Meanwhile, wind output is bombing. This past week, our >19GW touched 2GW for approx 30 minutes. At 05:30 on 17th July.

        Analysis by Mk1 Eyeball indicates Capacity Factor over the week has been approx 5%.

  2. It doesn't add up... permalink
    July 22, 2018 11:01 am

    Meanwhile China has just announced they plan to increase the capacity of their Rudong LNG terminal from 6.5mtpa to 26mtpa, as they take in the first Yamal LNG cargoes on the Vladimir Rusanov and Eduard Toll delivered via the Arctic route. 20mtpa of LNG is about 27bcm of gas, which has an energy content of about 264TWh. In 2017, they produced 108TWh of solar and 268TWh of wind from their installed capacity to date. The Rudong expansion doesn’t look to be the only one expected.

  3. July 22, 2018 11:11 am

    A house near me has recently had its extensive solar panels removed, and very ugly it now looks due to differences in tile weathering/colouring, the market value of the house must have taken a significant hit.

  4. Broadlands permalink
    July 22, 2018 12:21 pm

    Where do solar panel “farms” go when they die?

    • July 22, 2018 7:42 pm

      To that great polluting rubbish dump – probably dumped into the ocean.

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