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Amazon Fires Update

September 25, 2019
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

 

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Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has seen a huge jump in the number of fires this year, new space agency data suggests.

The National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) said its satellite data showed an 84% increase on the same period in 2018.

It comes weeks after President Jair Bolsonaro sacked the head of the agency amid rows over its deforestation data.

The largest rainforest in the world, the Amazon is a vital carbon store that slows down the pace of global warming.

It is also home to about three million species of plants and animals, and one million indigenous people.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49415973

 

You cannot have forgotten about the hysteria surrounding the wildfires in Brazil last month, alternately blamed on President Bolsonaro or global warming, depending on your preference.

As saner observers pointed out at the time, nothing unusual was happening, and most of the fires were actually clearing existing farmland of scrub, a process that happens every year, and not in the forest itself.

So, what has been happening in the last month?

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http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html#totals

 

As of today, the cumulative fire count is pretty much average, as per the green line:

ScreenHunter_4927 Sep. 25 14.02

 

The GFED also estimates emissions, as a proxy for fire volume. Again, we see that this year has so far been unremarkable:

 image

 

This was not the only way you were misled at the time. The Guardian, for instance, included this map in their coverage:

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/23/amazon-fires-what-is-happening-anything-we-can-do

 

One of my contacts took a close look at this map, and identified several issues:

 

side by side - guardian map  critique - 25-08-2019 01-02-17[488]

side by side guardian not showing  political boundaries - 24-08-2019 23-36-58[490]

20 Comments
  1. Martin Howard Keith Brumby permalink
    September 25, 2019 2:36 pm

    Not to fret.

    If the Grauniad tips the Supreme Court a nice brown envelope, they’ll decide 11-0 that the Graudian is absolutely correct and Bolsonaro and Trump are to blame.

    That’s Democracy for you!

    • DaveR permalink
      September 26, 2019 8:44 pm

      Grauniad translated = ‘Gonad-ire’.

  2. Michael Adams permalink
    September 25, 2019 3:06 pm

    Wrong interpretation of the last map. The black line indicates the Amazon Basin not the boundary of Brazil. Apart from that we are shown once again how MSM and others are trying to deceive us. I don’t know why as there is as much of story debunking the Climate extremists as there is supporting everything they say. In South America it seems things are normal.

    • Concerned Citizen permalink
      September 25, 2019 9:54 pm

      The black line is from The Guardian itself. The previous image had a further analysis of why that was originally labelled wrongly too.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      September 26, 2019 2:09 am

      This is a little more detailed map. Not from the MSM
      http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/basins/amazon/amazon-map_detailed.pdf

      Not also the number of fires in Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana etc. outside the thick black line.

  3. Joe Public permalink
    September 25, 2019 3:07 pm

    That’s a great analysis of How-to-mislead with annotations on a map.

  4. September 25, 2019 3:17 pm

    Better get Greta on the case…….

  5. It doesn't add up... permalink
    September 25, 2019 4:02 pm

    Another thing I found when looking at EOSDIS source data is that when you zoom it the extent of fires magically reduces. At continental scale each grid square is large – perhaps 25 or 50km across, and any fire in the area gets the square filled in. Zoom in so that smaller grid squares are called into play, and you find that the area burning is only a tiny fraction of that implied by the continental maps.

  6. Sheri permalink
    September 25, 2019 4:10 pm

    I thought ONE year was irrelevant when it came to climate……

    • September 25, 2019 6:55 pm

      LOL. Yes, that just jumps right out at you, doesn’t it. Of course, if they considered the last 15 years, there wouldn’t be any fodder for the warming narrative.

      https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145464/fires-in-brazil
      “As of August 16, 2019, an analysis of NASA satellite data indicated that total fire activity across the Amazon basin this year has been close to the average in comparison to the past 15 years.“

      Sad how the once premier world news service has so willfully debased itself. BBC and I parted company many years ago.

  7. john cooknell permalink
    September 25, 2019 10:08 pm

    The BBC have at the bottom annotated their erroneous article with.

    “This article initially stated there was a record number of fires in Brazil this year. After more satellite data was made accessible, it has been updated to reflect the fact the fires are instead the worst since 2010.”

    You can trust the BBC?

    • martinbrumby permalink
      September 25, 2019 11:05 pm

      I’d love to annotate the BBC’s bottoms.
      Preferably in braile using a rusty pitchfork.

  8. YouKnowWho permalink
    September 26, 2019 12:03 am

    Meanwhile Singapore and Southern Malaysia are smothered in smoke from fires in Indonesia but the world’s media doesn’t say a thing. Why?

  9. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    September 26, 2019 4:35 am

    This post had me looking for fire info in my region of the world.
    To date, both number of fires and area burned are below the 10 year average.

    Further, there is a lowering probability of large fires developing.
    Large areas have seen rain and more (and some snow) is forecast for this week.
    Montana will get a real winter storm over the weekend. Snow measured in feet.

    The US is being bombarded with dire climate news. Latest is that we will get 33 inches of sea level rise over the next 80 years. The effort behind all this climate crisis news is astounding.
    Our news agencies love the pig tailed kid.

    • dave permalink
      September 26, 2019 9:33 am

      “Our [i.e. USA] news agencies love…”

      An outsider can see, of course, that what they love is anything that can form part of the despairing, attempt to derail Trump’s re-election; by shouting, “Devils are everywhere! and (sotto voce} the chief devil is in the White House.”

  10. john cooknell permalink
    September 26, 2019 9:41 am

    This is what Greta said:- And she got it badly wrong, she did not understand, as all 16 year olds do from time to time.

    This was supported and carried on by the virtual signalling world leaders, like Macron,Trudeau etc etc. and Media idiots like the BBC, CH4 etc who want it to true and then do no research.

    So its virtual signalling world leaders and Greta who got it wrong, the skeptics got it right. Everything else Greta says is just the same.

    No wonder the Brazilians were really hacked off!

    The only bit that bothers me is I have ended up agreeing with Trump!

    • Gerry, England permalink
      September 26, 2019 1:51 pm

      Donald is the only man standing between us and the complete take over by the insane.

  11. john cooknell permalink
    September 26, 2019 9:47 am

    Perhaps a word from another “saint” will aid our understanding.

  12. dennisambler permalink
    September 26, 2019 12:04 pm

    Fire is presented as a harbinger of climate destruction by modern civilization, yet it has been a critical part of life on Earth for millions of years.

    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2015.00756/full
    “Analyses of bulk petrographic data indicate that during the Late Paleozoic wildfires were more prevalent than at present.We propose that the development of fire systems through this interval was controlled predominantly by the elevated atmospheric oxygen concentration (p(O2)) that mass balance models predict prevailed.

    In investigating ancient fire systems,it is necessary to understand the primary factors controlling combustion. One of these factors, p(O2) is generally little considered by those studying modern wildfires as it is effectively a constant (present atmospheric oxygen level (PAL) = ∼21%). However,over geological time mass balance modeling suggests there were periods throughout the Phanerozoic when p(O2) differed significantly from the PAL.”

    https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2014.00785/full
    “Human use of fire likely dates back over 1,000,000 years and anthropogenic impact on natural fire regimes is likely to have changed as economies shifted from hunting-gathering to pastoralism, farming, and industrialization. Charcoal composites from around the world have been used to examine human-fire relationships at continental scales over millennia

    …striking evidence of human-induced fires and deforestation comes from charcoal and pollen records from South Island New Zealand, where initial Mâori arrival is strongly associated with widespread burning and loss of native forest. Population growth during the Holocene was also associated with increased fire activity in watersheds in the Alps the Mediterranean basin and south-eastern Australia.”

    Sue the Maori for reparation?

  13. September 26, 2019 10:51 pm

    I live in Central Canada. The forests were logged and the timber sent to Great Britain. Then the farmers burnt what was left and started farming.We all should be careful about putting down the Brazil farmers trying to clear land

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