Sorry Boris, But You Still Need Gas!
October 19, 2020
By Paul Homewood
During the last few days of quiet weather, wind power has been virtually non existent. Yesterday, for instance, it averaged only 1.277 GW, and dipped as low as 0.524 GW:
Fortunately, CCGT stepped up to fill the gap (bottom graph), with help from nuclear, biomass and interconnector to France, which together averaged about 10 GW. However, these latter sources are pretty much maxed out.
No matter how much wind capacity we build, the equation still remains the same.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
The question is “How do we get the message through to a government that refuses to listen to independent engineers”?
Wait for a hard winter? 🙂
If there is a hard winter, I suspect that the number of Covid deaths amongst our elderly will pale into insignificance when the power cuts kick in.
That’ll be some legacy for BJ.
Sadly, I think you are right Robert. A real icy brute, interspersed with a succession of gloomy, windless days, will probably crash our fragile grid and cause untold misery to the poorest and most vulnerable members of our society. Unfortunately, it seems that only by experiencing the inevitable tragic consequences of the ‘green dream’ will our leaders start to wake up to the folly of their policies. But even then, if form us anything to go by, they’ll probably just blame all the chaos on climate change and double down on their insanity.
As a very sincere Communist told me many years ago, “The problem with revolutions is that it is always the poor who suffer”.
You cannot. Over the last few decades government has become increasingly deaf to any advice that doesn’t fit with its preconceived notions. Now it simply doesn’t even bother to pretend its listening. Boris has convinced himself it’s a matter of Churchillian will and Cummings believes himself a genius on every topic. They are worse than Blair and Brown, something I never thought I’d say.
Agree to a point, but these politicos don’t have a huddle and come up with spiffing ideas. They are basically clueless on most topics, their energies having been channeled into being elected. Caroline Lucas is an exception as she has the Save the Planet as her raison detré. Unfortunately she too is clueless on the subject she claims prominence in, perhaps she too is a money grabbing opportunist who spotted a market niche championing ‘the cause’, found gullible backers, and hey ho, watches the dosh roll in. No, the administration that the government ‘instruct’ are where the policy initiatives come from. While blaming the government for outcomes, as they issue the directives, the people behind government are the people we ought to castigate, villify, (Hang?) but the ‘government is the shield that protects the emanaters of the destruction that has crippled us. How we fix that without violent revolution, I don’t know. Under the 2 party system, candidates won’t pass the induction tests if they espouse the policies we want, only an independent would, and they aren’t allowed the necessary public airings required vis-a- vis Nick Griffin, late of the B En Pea.
At least, when there’s no electricity, we can use our gas fire for heat … but they have plans to take that away.
Do the children know this? 🙂 🙂 🙂
But not the gas central heating, the water pump needs electricity
And a spark for ignition, and to run the programmer.
if we get similar conditions in mid-winter its darkness.
And if you have a genny, try not to advertise the fact to the more unsavoury elements in our society.
Write a long letter to Dominic Cummings mentioning that the ‘Green’ views are all wrong, and why (in brief.)
The very very disappointing Boris, with no excuses, has become a snake oil salesman, and not a “good” one at that.
He has swallowed so much of today’s fashionable nonsense that he resembles the leader of the execrable SNP, though without her and her Party’s anglophilia .
The only Tory in the House of Commons now speaking on the right lines seems to be Sir John Redwood, though there may be more.
Which is why the UK should be self-sufficient in energy like we were during the industrial revolution (coal miners paid well and excellent modern technology included now) as well as natural gas and oil. And that we aren’t self-sufficient is due the anti-CO2 nazis, globalists, the EU, immoral scientists and academics and very many idiots.
Ariane, the HS2 protesters round my way will be as nothing to the CC protesters and XR nuts if BJ was to go for coal, oil, gas and fracking: all good things in my book but hated by those who also hate our country.
So nothing to do with UK politicians who negotiated the directives, who did not get opt outs as other countries did, who then decided to beat those directives by some margin where other countries have been slow to react, and UK politicians who want to continue to beat those targets now the UK is out.
The UK gov is so little to blame I sometimes wonder if they governed at all and what the people were doing during this period.
Become?
He always was.
Boris may have lost his marbles after the virus attacked his brain and then having a green innumerate girlfriend with a baby to look after at night and a set of ex-children and wife with divorce lawyers. It sounds like a nightmare and looking carefully at pictures of him before and now, his eyes look different. It’s a bit like a science fiction horror film where the nation is taken over by a bug from outer space.
Reality smacked him between the eyes.
Incapable of doing detail, good at waffling & shagging (One assumes from the number of women who’ve spread their legs for him)
He has lost two stone but that’s probably because she’s stopping him eating rather than shagging. Unless he’s already found someone else.
Given this report from a vengeful Macron,should we be worried about the French connection
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1349210/Brexit-news-Emmanuel-Macron-France-fisheries-energy-blockade-threat-EU-punishment-vn
Macron sabre rattling for his voters, nothing new there.
Seems to me the French have a new/old problem that won’t be as easily fixed as Brexit could be.
The Express article you link to talks of us supplying the EU with electricity, and that that arrangement to so do could be jeopardised. Apparently it’s worth a billion or so to us. I thought the problem was we had to import from them. does anyone know the situation well enough to expound on it?
From time to time when the wind does blow we end up with surplus electricity and export to France. The price achieved is very low – perhaps even negative in these circumstances, so we gain little form the export. There are occasions when France gets short of electricity because they have had to shut down more nuclear capacity than they expected, and then the price for firing up our own generators to supply them is much higher – but so is their need: shutting out our supply increases their own blackout risk and makes for more expensive supply for them. At the moment we tend to be significant net importers from the continent. But they have been struggling to keep us supplied.
I don’t think an EU thing would be sensible: Ireland depends on the UK for balancing its grid – we keep their lights on when it isn’t windy, and take their surplus wind when it is. Belgium also threatens to run short of nuclear power – it has already had several prolonged outages in recent years at Doel and Tihange. The Dutch keep threatening to stop generating at Maasvlakte, which runs on coal, and is next door to the BritNed HVDC station. France has a major programme of maintenance outages, and there’s a good chance they could get others. Discussed here:
https://timera-energy.com/french-nukes-winter-stress-flex-asset-value/
So in reality it’s a poor bluff by Macron, but on the other hand, it’s far from clear that we could bail out the French in the event of a windless bitterly cold winter high and a bunch of nuclear shutdowns. The French connections are in any case 50/50 ventures, so they would lose the transit income as well as the power flow. There is a new one due on stream imminently, and another that is supposed to go via the Tunnel for a couple of year’s time.
I’d simply threaten to keep our coal capacity running. Carrie won’t let Boris do that.
I can’t see France wanting to lose out on the income for that leccy they sell us.
The whole thing is a nonsense anyway – Germany imports gas from Russia, which last time I checked was not in the single market
JoNova posted this on that.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/10/hands-up-your-fish-or-your-electricity-macron-threatens-to-cut-interconnector-to-uk/
Crazy nasty world out there, with Leftists in positions of power.
Yonason, so you think Macron and Johnson are Leftists??!!
Just move to Asia maybe.
That insanity appears to be a peculiarity of the advanced economies.
Many Asian nations picked up the trend and started constructing wind/solar power plants too. Do they not build them in your country?
No sir. Not in Thailand or anywhere around here either. The Chinese are making a kiling in the business selling wind turbines and solar panels to the West and they do have some in China as a way of showing good faith but they don’t rely on them.
Interesting, but Wikipedia says that there’s 2800 MW of solar and 240 MW of wind plants in Thailand. And their data is usually really old, like from five years ago. For instance they claim that it’s only 15 MW of wind capacity for my country, while the Russian Wind Industry Association provide a much greater figure of 640 MW, and there’s hundreds MW more in planning. Which seems legit, since they’ve only started building those fairly recently (after the subsidies started somewhere around 2013-14). So I imagine the current numbers for Thailand could also be much higher, although, not knowing Thai and thus not having access to up to date sources, I can’t confirm it.
“Just move to Asia maybe.”
Closer to China? NO THANK YOU!
Lots of nice people out that way, but governments not so much.
Can’t argue with that.
So Macron will watch with arms folded as Britain suffers from reduced gas and electricity supplies due to our stance on fishing. People will die but it won’t be the fault of the French but rather the idiots who refused to allow fracking.
A few years ago Highland Council, in its wisdom, decided some council tenants needed to do more to save the planet so they removed their solid fuel fires and gave them air source heating. They omitted to tell them the effect this would have on their electricity bills so I was told by the local village postmistress that she had elderly tenants weeping over the counter unable to pay their bills. Meanwhile the constraints payments in Scotland have reached nearly £773m. Since central heating doesn’t work without electricity and electric cookers won’t be much use what are we all supposed to do? Wonder how many politicians have solid fuel stoves.
On 26th (when they go back) I’ll send my MSP an update on these constraints payments. Were over £658 in January. Now £773 million. Seems that they think money = Scottish water.
Same story in Flakirk. Electric heating systems installed. £150 a week bills and fuel poverty.
https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/falkirk-villagers-turn-heat-scottishpower-says-it-will-investigate-high-bills-1326929
The Falkirk Herald article is reporting on multiple moving parts, so fully understanding the situation (for an outsider, at least) is hard.
I hope there is a solution before there is a long cold winter.
Paraffin heaters? Can we still buy Esso blue and Pink? They still have it in France, where it’s used with radiant heaters which give a warming glow. I have one in my abandoned holiday house. I may go there if we have power cuts in the UK.
Reply to Steve re paraffin heaters. Yes, they abound in France and are very effective aren’t they? Paraffin is available in the ‘B & Q’s’ ie Bricomarché, in 20 litre drums, and is known as ‘petrol’, a little confusing first time round. The cheaper ‘petrol’ is for flame guns and agricultural purposes and the slightly more expensive ‘petrol’ is for the radiant heaters and have little to no odour when burning. Boy do they shove out the heat and the running cost is very acceptable. Going back 7 years from memory, the 20L basic stuff was €21 and the better grade C. €23/24.
I started to laugh at this article but stopped, it really ain’t funny.
I took a look at the websites of the equipment supplier and installers mentioned in that article. Lots of vague ‘efficiency’ chat. The systems supplied probably have tanks that are too small to act as heat stores (retro-fit constraints in old council properties), forcing the housholders to use peak rate electricity.
There’s this gem: “Depending on the individuals lifestyle, you may have to time the off peak control box to run into the higher rate periods as the heat remaining in the boiler will only last about an hour for heating and will have enough heat in the hot water section to provide one or two showers.”
That’s two firms I’ll never go near.
No doubt the council had to demonstrate how their properties were being upgraded to take account of ‘green’ policies, not caring that it would push their mostly poorer tenants into the red.
If you’re skint a nice fire makes you feel OK on a cold night. As well as bening worse off, the tenants now no longer have that simple pleasure.
Another triumph of policy.
And Extinction Rebellion gals were demonstrating outside the Scottish Government building in Leith at the weekend – that not enough is being done to avert THE CLIMATE EMERGENCY.
I have said all along and still do that we have to re-open the pits. We are heading into a very deep Grand Solar Minimum. We Must open the pits before it’s too late. It will take time to make them safe and train up new miners, it was a terrible mistake to shut them. The cold is coming and people will chop down trees rather than die of cold, and we need trees.
The climate emergency facing us is a long-term regular drop into Ice Age temperatures caused by the Sun’s cycle. I studied IceAges as part of my degree and the current spate of volcanoes one place after another is a sure sign that the cold is at the door.
saparonia, agree absolutely about the coal mines (and the getting colder.) Recently, another mine was refused permission to open:
https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2020-09-09/government-rejects-planning-application-for-open-cast-coal-mine-near-druridge-bay
and here also:
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/this-crazy-campaign-against-coal-and-jobs/
and not sure how they are doing here:
https://www.westcumbriamining.com/register-your-interest/register-for-updates/
Sorry to say, Saporonia, I would rather see hydraulic fracturing for gas rather than manual fracturing for coal. That said, where the coal is easily recoverable, then fine.
Harry Passfield:
Men hacking lumps of coal by hand loading into trucks pulled by pit ponies is old technology. Why not try automated machines and conveyer belts? A large former colony to the south may be willing to help with the technology.
And what share of total energy consumption is electricity – and yet Government policy is to force us to abandon gas as a domestic fuel and petrol/diesel for cars. Where will all the electricity for vehicle transport, domestic heating and cooking come from. Not to mention how will the local electric network down each street sustain the massively load from heating, cooking and charging battery vehicles!
Well, the pavements could be ice-free as the subterranean power cables warm up!
I see “green” jobs in your future as the streets get dug up to add to those buried power cables.
My road is already being dug up for a big cable to serve the student housing blocks, which have electric heating. So far it’s taken three months to get half way and they haven’t got to the main road yet.
All the talk about green jobs really means green jobs in China producing windmills and solar panels.
The green jobs for the UK seems to be digging trenches for the new cables needed.
We’ve got your wind.
The Oregon & Washington states’ wind output was zero** late Thursday. Hydro filled that gap. Wind bounced off the bottom and by Noon on Friday the turbine blades were in “high cotton”. Still blowing.
Excess power from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) sources goes to California via a direct current system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie
_ _ _ _ _
** https://transmission.bpa.gov/business/operations/wind/baltwg.aspx
In low wind conditions A) heat pumps wont work because in most urban conditions the air outside will be too cold- caused by all your neighbours pumping out cold air. B) Nobody will be able to stand the constant roaring noise of a whole district using the pumps. And low wind conditions in winter are usually cold.
David, I did once take this up with others (Phillip Bratby, I think was one), but if there are so very, very many wind-farms they must have an effect on the wind circulations around Europe. Let’s face it, if enough energy is taken out of the wind it must cause the climate to change, no? (/s – perhaps)
No.
The reverse cycle process only takes a small amount of heat and once the inside temperature is stabilised the fan speeds reduce remarkably. The secret is to have a medium large capacity system but only use a fraction.
Mine is 5.5kW ( I think the largest is around 9kW that will run on single phase) but from a check of the meter ( yes a smart one but not one that turns off appliances) Im only drawing at most 2kW on a high setting which soon drops down to 300-400W.
The downside is on a very cold morning with possible frosts around , the systems ices up after about hour. It stops and reverses its cycle to melt the ice on the heat exchanger unit.
The upside is because of the high peak capacity and fan assist the rooms will heat up quicker than a small boiler and convection wall radiators
Here you go, Harry – just the article! James Delingpole cites an excellent review in the scientific journal “Energies” giving details of exactly what you mentioned:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/14/damning-report-green-energy-is-the-worst/
“In particular, recent years’ research has produced considerable theoretical and empirical evidence that wind turbines can have significant local or regional effects on climate. For example, Abbasi et al. (2016) explain that “large-scale wind farms with tall wind turbines can have an influence on the weather, possibly on climate, due to the combined effects of the wind velocity deficit they create, changes in the atmospheric turbulence pattern they cause, and landscape roughness they enhance”.
My reverse aircon unit doesn’t work after October in the south of France and neither does my friend’s in his doctor’s surgery there.
The divesters have got Cambridge
@Cambridge_Uni Oct 1
The University of Cambridge aims to divest
from all direct and indirect investments in fossil fuels by 2030,
as part of our plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2038
https://bit.ly/3igdCDz
@cisl_cambridge #CambridgeDivests #NetZero2038 #CambridgeZero
https://www.cam.ac.uk/news/cambridge-to-divest-from-fossil-fuels-with-net-zero-plan
To me it is clearly PR not science
and giving in to Green Fascism.
XR came with their violence cutting up the Cambridge lawns and Cambridge caved in
20 replies and 55 quote tweets are supportive
only 1 is against
Typically those reply
“10 years Cambridge, do it tomorrow you idiots”
“Ellen Quigley and Tilly Franklin whose report and open mindedness, respectively, made this watershed decision possible”
It’s looks to me Quigley says Marxist and strong anti-Brexit things.
Yet Cambridge (and others) call themselves academics(!) – as in: take nobody’s word for it (in English just in case some of the newer academics can’t understand the original Latin).
Does no-one in academia have a sceptical mind anymore? Do they even have a mind????
Indeed Harry, the ability to think critically seems to be a skill that is no longer taught at our universities. When I was a student I used to love the cut and thrust of debate, particularly with those who disagreed with me. Often, I would learn something from those with whom I disagreed. That’s called ‘education’! Alas, that is now ‘verboten’. A young member of my extended family, who is completely signed up to the global warming doomster narrative, recently achieved a 1st in geography from one of our leading universities. Aside from the fact that the course contained very little ‘geography’, as we would understand it, they were allowed to use their own ‘feelings and experiences’ as ‘expert’ testimony in their final dissertation! Needless to say, they refuse to discuss ‘climate change’ with me in case I weaken their resolve in their desire to save the planet. God streuth!
Two more delusional,bats**y crazy wimmin who should be at home making babies, not immersing themselves in serious grown-up matters.
Paul, are you against women getting involved in serious grown-up matters?
Yes. They’ve done incalculable damage to Western nations, particularly since the rise of the feminist movement and ‘equality’, and equal opportunities, and the craze to promote women because they are women to positions, and in industries they barely understand. A case in point that I find beyond parody is the case of the woman who is the CEO of the Football League and her decision to close down Bury FC. Why is a woman in charge of a man’s sport? The women leagues may come under her remit, but the vast chunk of the FL is male, made up of men over the many decades, providing the wealth that finances the women’s game. I know Bury FC missed deadlines with would be backers but there was a last minute backer arranging proof of funds and she wouldn’t allow Bury an extra 48 hours. The damage to the town is immense, the famous Bury Market took a big hit with no away fans visiting etc etc. Bury, a struggling Northern town on the breadline, having a league team to give the people some solace, shafted. Outrageous. Only a woman could be that dispassionate because it involved men – and she was.
That there are some worthwhile women around I accept, but their numbers in the bigger picture don’t merit their involvement. Now if you want to go back to merit, yes. Let women compete with men without the cry baby legislation that has been introduced to protect and financially reward them for kicking up a stink as and when they fall down on the job.
Paul, the trouble is that it was in the West – and still is in very many particularly rural parts of the world – a ‘man’s world’ (men in charge of the family as well as Church, politics, economics, land and society at local and national level) so, while I understand the frustration when the opposite thing happens (occasionally) now, it’s important to remember how things used to be before (some) women gained education, assertiveness and financial power. Every movement has its extremes as ‘feminism’ most certainly does, but we should try to not throw the baby out with the bath water. And talking of babies, where would you, Boris Johnson, the Pope or even Marx be without women being able to make babies? As for your ‘staying at home’ bit, if men shared the housework, childcare and care of the elderly thus enabling girls and women, to be educated and become wealthy if they chose, thenmen would learn the true value of women’s work in the home and – I think – the world would be a much more fair, peaceful, healthy and creative place.
How does selling your shares in BP to someone else reduce your – or anybody’s – emissions? If they actually want to influence what fossil fuel companies do they should buy shares, not sell.
Self-righteous virtue signalling.
When I was at Cambridge in the 1960s we had gas fires that warmed rooms up in minutes, and incidentally were great for making toast.
I presume now that they have all been removed and replaced with some sort of electric heating.
May I suggest air source heat pumps, although as I understand it they may have problems in cold weather, as well as keeping the neighbours awake at night.
These might inject a bit of reality into their deliberations, both students and humanities dons.
According to the government’s Energy Emergency Executive Committee (E3C), there are increasing future risks to the security of electricity supply. The E3C essentially warned consumers of all kinds (from businesses to domestic consumers) that they should take measures to ensure that they are prepared for a range of credible power disruption scenarios. In other words, you have been warned – be prepared for blackouts. I have an oil-fired central heating system with a full oil tank, a small gas-fired genny (with spare gas bottles) to run the pump, lights, microwave, fridge, freezer etc and a wood-burner with several years’ supply of wood. Bring on the blackouts.
C’mon, Philip, there’s a Climate Emergency, not a power-supply emergency. Like Winston, you have to learn to love Big Brother. (/s – and props)
I had similar when living in France, anticipating the coming energy collapse scenarios, but the missus developed Grandma-itis, like so many, and we dragged back to England. Funny how we see so little of her children’s families now. We bought a 15 tog duvet only today, better nip back and buy a couple more whilst stocks last.
The only point of having politicians in power and scientists is that they will seek the best deals for us voters.
Any ideas as to why they are not doing that in so many fields, most obvviously in climate change, perfectly natural events, where most of them are utterly and obviously wrong, at least in UK?
As I see it the problem is that the last time we had severe power cuts was around 1948 and only people now 80 plus realise what a major problem it was. Our industry was still on its knees desperately trying to recover from the war. If closing a coal fired power station has no immediate obvious effect we are all all-right then! When politicians realise what fools they’ve been it will take years to put new generating plant in, not mention the up-grading that will be needed to the grid. Meanwhile we will go hungry, the health service will really collapse and law and order will be a thing of the past……Breeding horses might be good to get into. Cars will be history.
Don’t forget Ted Heath’s 1972 three day week inspired by striking miners lead by a chap called something like Gormley. I was doing a dissertation for a diploma at the time in candle light and the company I worked for was on the shut-down schedule. Happy times.
Ditto John. I remember the 3 day week as a kid doing my homework by candlelight and freezing my nuts off coming back to a flat with no heating. Also remember seeing snow on Christmas Day! But that was when ‘global warming’ wasn’t!
Interestingly, I have a grudging respect for Joe Gormley, albeit I disagreed with his tactics, but he had been brought up in a time when miners were treated very poorly, so his ambitions were understandable. An old school, labour union baron who wanted to protect his members and enhance their wages but also realised that cheap, reliable energy was the lifeblood of a modern industrial economy. Ultimately, he was over protective of unproductive practices but he was one of the very first union leaders to accept that pay rises should be linked to improvements in productivity. More importantly, he did have a patriotic streak. When he realised that the NUM was being infiltrated by a Marxist new breed (Scargill et al) he is believed to have opened up a hot line to Special Branch to give them a heads up on their activities. Ultimately, his actions helped Thatcher break the union that he once championed.
“No matter how much wind capacity we build, the equation still remains the same.”
Not really. At a certain point (30%?), the financial case for maintaining a CCGT disappears.
‘Fortunately, CCGT stepped up to fill the gap’
No one is going to keep a CCGT around it they can’t make money on it. At some level of penetration, wind will have to fund its backup. WHICH IT CAN’T DO. THE WHOLE DAMN THING IS A JOKE!
Here is an upbeat report on Molten Salt Reactors (MSR) that is the answer to all things Zero Net Emissions, yet it is strangely ignored:
There’s quite a lot of Science included, from many different disciplines, so quite an interesting piece.
MSR has been the answer for 60 years. Yawn.
Indeed, a fascinating concept, but dogged by issues around sufficiently corrosion resistant alloys. A bit like fusion power, it’s been ten years away for 50 years.
Meanwhile we have viable evolutionary uranium fission designs from Kepco,
Candu and GE-Hitachi, if only we (in the UK) had a regulatory environment that enabled their construction.
Robert Christopher,
” Interesting and Science ” – – – I agree.
To a Col Mosbey who comments on several sites, I have returned his praise with:
Get 10 of these things up at grid scale,
And another 100 under construction,
And another 1,000 permitted and financed,
And then a projection can be made about reaching some vague notion of “Net-zero” CO2 emissions.
Adam Gallon! You must not troll. This is supposed to be scientific information to refute the Green XR stupidity.
Not vulgar gibes… Try Sky news australia where the trolls abound.
Sobaken on October 20, 2020 at 12:35 am
Interesting, but Wikipedia says that there’s 2800 MW of solar and 240 MW of wind plants in Thailand
Did not know that. I will check and write again. Apologies if I had erred.
Drove across France over the weekend (Bergerac to Calais) and every wind-turbine was utterly still all the way. I bet they were thanking de Gaulle (was it him?) for all the nuclear plants.
“…was it De Gaulle…?”
No, it was Premier Pierre Mesmer in 1974, reacting to OPEC. This was five years after the resignation of De Gaulle.