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President Xi’s Con Trick

December 16, 2020
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By Paul Homewood

 

President Xi was busy pulling the wool over the eyes of the West at last weekend’s Climate Summit:

 image

Chinese dictator Xi Jinping announced at this weekend’s Climate Ambition Summit that his nation, the world’s leading carbon dioxide emitter, would continue to increase carbon emissions through at least 2030, but “aim” to stop doing so before then.

The Paris Agreement, a global climate change document to which China is a party, allows China to increase emissions while imposing onerous requirements to cut emissions on “developed” nations. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement, signed by the Obama administration, in 2018, but likely successor Joe Biden has vowed to re-sign the agreement immediately upon becoming president.

China regularly applauds itself as an environmentalist champion through its state media. Yet, in addition to being the world’s worst carbon emitter, China is responsible for widespread environmental destruction around the planet, including the destruction of coral reefs in the South China Sea and the increasingly concerning overfishing of the Galápagos Islands, where Chinese ships are not legally allowed to fish.

The Climate Ambition Summit, a U.N. event, occurred online; Xi addressed the summit from Beijing on Saturday night local time. The dictator again made clear that China promised nothing on climate action before 2030, a decade from his address.

“We aim to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,” Xi said, according to the state news agency Xinhua.

“Today, I wish to announce some further commitments for 2030: China will lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65 percent from the 2005 level,” he explained, “increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25 percent, increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level, and bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts.”

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/12/14/china-debuts-ambitious-environmental-plan-increases-co2-emissions-decade/

 

He was of course careful not to promise any cut in emissions before 2030, nor give any sort of timetable of specific cuts thereafter. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that Sleepy Joe and the EU will have fallen hook, line and sinker for his trickery.

But let’s look more closely at what he did promise:

1) Lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65 percent from the 2005 level”

In fact, as we can see below, China’s Paris commitment already promised to lower emissions by 60% to 65% of GDP, so this new announcement offers little new:

 

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CHINA’ S INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS FOR THE PARIS AGREEMENT

https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx

 

As I have commented many times in the past, energy usage per unit of GDP always falls sharply as economies mature, growing particularly into low energy intensive sectors, such as services and technology.

There never was anything radical about China;’s pledge, and it was clear in 2015 that this was one commitment that would easily be reached with little effort.

 

 2) Increase total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1200GW

China did not include any target for wind and solar at Paris, except for a 2020 objective.

Currently there is 439GW of wind and solar capacity in China, split roughly 50/50 between wind and solar. Last year capacity increased by 55GW, which is slightly below the level needed to hit 1200GW by 2030.

It is notable however that solar installations peaked in 2017, while wind installations have hardly been rocketing. This would suggest neither technology will thrive without heavy subsidies or policy mandate.

 https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/2020-q2-pv-installations-utility-and-distributed-by-province/

https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/2020-q2-wind-power-installations-and-production-by-province/

 

Currently, wind/solar accounts for a tiny 8.5% of total generation. My projection would see generation from the pair rising from 629 TWh to 1698 TWh in 2030. (This assumes a split of 500GW Wind/700GW Solar).

However, total power demand is also expected to rise by 300 TWh each year, about 4% a year. Consequently the proportion of wind/solar is only going to rise to 16%, well below current UK levels.

 

image

To put it another way, while wind/solar generation is 1069TWh higher in 2030 than now, total demand rises by 3000 TWh, meaning two thirds of the increased demand will need to come from elsewhere.

 

 3) increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25 percent

The Paris commitment, you will have noted, was 20%, so this is an improvement. However, as we have seen, the stated plans for wind and solar will only meet a small part of this switch.

Assuming primary energy consumption continues to rise at about 2% a year, the contribution from wind/solar will only have gone up from 4% to 8%.

The target of 25% non fossil fuels implies an increase in fossil fuel consumption from 120 to 135 Exajoules (EJ) – in turn suggesting a rise in emissions of 12%.

New hydro development seems to have dried up, which only leaves nuclear power to do the heavy lifting – my projections going from 3 to 17 EJ:

image

To hit 17 EJ of nuclear, equivalent to 2000 TWh, would require capacity of about 250GW, compared to the current capacity of 48GW.

China’s 13th Five-Year Plan, published in 2016, targeted 58GW by the end of this year, plus another 30GW under construction. The first certainly won’t be hit.

Although they have yet to announce their next plan, it must be exceedingly unlikely that China will get anywhere near 250GW in 2030.

Put simply Xi’s “pledge” does not stack up.

4) Increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level

This is a small increase on the Paris commitment of 4.5 bcm. But even carbon alarmists accept that planting more trees is not an acceptable substitute for reducing fossil fuel usage.

Measuring such things is notoriously open to abuse. But above all, growing new forests is essentially a one off exercise in reducing emissions. Yes, they can absorb carbon dioxide as they grow, but then they die or get cut down, and the whole cycle starts again.

In other words, they provide a one off cut in emissions, but are not a long term solution.

 

 

China’s long term strategy appears to revolve around a massive expansion in nuclear capacity. This has long been the case, and has nothing to do with climate change, however much Xi may dress it up.

Instead, it has much to do with energy independence and long term security, particularly if coal reserves start to run out in a few decades time.

However, even in China, there are obstacles in the path of rolling out large mounts of nuclear power – it is not cheap and there are environmental issues. In the medium term then, China will remain almost totally reliant on fossil fuels.

The idea that renewable energy can ever fill the gap is pie in the sky.

 

 

SOURCE

All data on China electricity is from the China Energy Portal

https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/

40 Comments
  1. December 16, 2020 2:54 pm

    Under the UNFCCC China is a non Annex country and has no emission reduction obligation. As for the Paris Agreement it is simply a collection of national intentions but even that was a violation of the UN’s own unfccc.
    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/04/11245/

  2. December 16, 2020 2:58 pm

    The country that weaponized and exported the Wuhan virus to the rest of the world cannot be trusted about anything. The West is committing Hari Kari with its economies and by extension the welfare of its citizens by submitting to the Global Warming hoax.

    I came across this yesterday

    The Great Global Warming Swindle – Full Documentary HD – YouTube

  3. Broadlands permalink
    December 16, 2020 3:14 pm

    China understands that rapid lowering of CO2 fuel emissions will bring any economy to its knees. It accomplished that feat by sending us a virus, the economic and social results of which are still with us. China has also purchased many of the important strategic mineral deposits around the world that will be needed to transition to a non-carbon energy world. They already have large deposits of lithium needed for batteries. In other words, China doesn’t need to “play ball” with the policy makers and politicians in Paris or at any other climate summit. Trump understands that. But BH and BS plus AOC will be left in the dust that will also cover John Kerry.

  4. Derek W Wood permalink
    December 16, 2020 3:40 pm

    China gave assurances about the future of Hong Kong. That’s going well…

  5. chriskshaw permalink
    December 16, 2020 4:00 pm

    We all know that intermittents are cheaper than coal fired power stations so why doesn’t China simply install these in place of the new coal plants?

    • Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
      December 16, 2020 5:15 pm

      See Poe’s Law.

      • chriskshaw permalink
        December 16, 2020 10:12 pm

        Never heard of This particular Poe.. but looked it up and realized I should have been clearer that the first part of the comment is (obviously) not true (despite the claims of the alarmists)

  6. Robin Guenier permalink
    December 16, 2020 4:52 pm

    In his summing up, Alok Sharma (who chaired the Summit) said that the world ‘must halve emissions this decade on a path to net zero’. As global emissions in 2019 were 38 Gt, that means a reduction to 19 Gt by 2030.

    But China makes that impossible. Xi said that China would ‘peak’ its emissions before 2030. In other words, they will continue to increase. Yet China’s emissions in 2019 were 11.5 Gt: already 60% of Sharma’s target. Even if they don’t increase, that would mean that every other country in the world would have to cut its annual emissions by 72% over the next decade. And that’s obviously not going to happen.

  7. Harry Passfield permalink
    December 16, 2020 4:59 pm

    I’m having fun imagining Johnson standing up in the House saying that he intends to do nothing about carbon emissions for 10 years. Heads would explode.

    As for China, a very good (but overly long) documentary on Jo’s blog explains how the election was fiddled by Biden with the help of the Chinese-owned Dominion election machines. It also explains how the State is all and it is happy to make the chosen very rich – as long as they believe in and support unflinchingly the State.
    Thoroughly recommend it.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      December 16, 2020 5:08 pm

      Meant to link to documentary: https://youtu.be/hzbduYDEvwU
      Seeing as it’s on YouTube I wonder how long before it disappears.

    • December 16, 2020 6:38 pm

      Hilarious. You’re in full on conspiracy nutjob territory there, Harry

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        December 16, 2020 7:16 pm

        Thanks for that, David. I found that as I got older I liked to leave personal insults behind. However, just to be curious, would you say as much about a climate sceptic?
        BTW: Did you even bother to watch the report or read any of the posts over at Jo Nova’s?

      • Gerry, England permalink
        December 17, 2020 12:14 pm

        Harry, you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.

        My feeling is that unless an honest result is declared then the US will break up with Texas having already started to put legislation in place for a referendum on succession. The other option is for a civil war between left and right to break out next year given that if you can’t have an honest election, war is your next option.

  8. December 16, 2020 5:05 pm

    China is one of the major partners in the ITER fusion project based in France. It may well hope that fusion will come on line by 2050 and fill the renewables gap.

    • sarastro92 permalink
      December 17, 2020 12:48 am

      ITER is a massive waste of resources as are tokamaks in general according to former US DoE Director Robert Hirsch.

      https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.3708

      Enter LPPFusion in Middlesex, NJ, which has been operating an experimental fusion reactor for several years based on a different method of plasma confinement than tokamaks called Dense Plasma Focus. The LPP reactor consumes Hydrogen-Boron fuel and operates at super hot temperatures (3 B degree C) creating aneutronic fusion, which unlike SPARC and other tokamaks , don’t generate any radioactivity.

      The LPPFusion device is small and compact and are super cheap to build and maintain. The reactor has already achieved two of three criteria for reaching net fusion energy. In QI- 2021 the reactor will be restarted after some retooling and will be in the critical, final phase of development expected to yield significant levels of fusion energy.

      see LPPFusion.com for details and explanatory videos.

  9. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    December 16, 2020 5:19 pm

    Will add that in addition to trees being cut and dying of natural causes, they also burn.
    Damn trees!

    Only when turned into lumber and used for buildings is there a long term intervention in the Carbon cycle.

  10. xmbea permalink
    December 16, 2020 5:22 pm

    Many thanks to Johnbillscott for the link to the youtube video re the Great Global Warming swindle. This should be mandatory viewing for all the XR idiots who end up in court.

  11. December 16, 2020 6:37 pm

    Off topic, an interview with the amazing Naomi Seibt, who has been disappeared (shadow banned) by Youtube:

    https://www.lotuseaters.com/interview-with-naomi-seibt

    • December 16, 2020 6:42 pm

      I’m losing patience with her. She’s a full on “The US Election was rigged”, nut. She can’t see that Trump alienated too many people to win the election. Saying the voting machines were rigged is clearly nonsense. That would mean all the independent polls were wrong throughout. That’s just for starters.

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        December 16, 2020 7:23 pm

        David, with an open mind, yes, the election was rigged. Consider this:

        ‘No incumbent President has ever increased his vote and lost the election. Indeed Obama didn’t win more votes in 2012 he lost three and a half million votes, but still won re-election in 2012. Yet somehow Trump improved his vote by 20% or 11 million votes, more than any candidate in history, but still lost. More than 74 million Americans voted for President Trump, 12 million more votes than he received in 2016, and more, by far, than any presidential candidate of either party has ever gotten. And we are supposed to believe that Joe Biden, a mentally impaired senior citizen who didn’t campaign, who rarely left his basement, about whose candidacy virtually no one was enthusiastic outside his immediate family, smashed all records by getting 81 million Americans to vote for him, 12 million more than voted for Barack Obama in 2008?’

        Open your eyes and you mind, David. Be a sceptic.

      • chriskshaw permalink
        December 16, 2020 9:45 pm

        David and Harry, I confess to be a die hard Trumpista. Disaffection with Trump should have resulted in fewer votes than 2016; and JBs inability to energize the populace would also suggest a lower turn out. The number of legal voters did increase from 2016 to 2020 commensurate with legal immigration. No way that we imported 20+ million new voters all of whom decided to vote. I smell a rat.

      • DMA permalink
        December 16, 2020 10:33 pm

        See “https://beta.documentcloud.org/documents/20423772-antrim-county-forensics-report” for a forensic report on the Antrim County machine that switched votes. Note also that 18 of 19 bellweather counties voted for Trump and and the only places Biden out performed Hillery was in these contested states.

  12. saparonia permalink
    December 16, 2020 7:27 pm

    Humans are losing their inborn connections to what is around us, the earthlife that we share with many other beings. We don’t look around us, we allow others to feed and clothe us, even imprison us and change our way of thinking. Instead we are only observing the words that others have typed, keyed in. We use as a building block for communication this Ancient System that was originally found by the Yellow River so long ago that it’s origin is lost. The IChing’s Ho T’u diagram exactly mirrors that of Binary Code, I wonder who chucked it into the river?

  13. December 16, 2020 7:29 pm

    China has at least ‘a few dozen’ airports under construction.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_China
    – – –
    Obviously air traffic, plus ’emissions’, will increase accordingly.

  14. M E permalink
    December 16, 2020 8:09 pm

    How old is President Xi? Is he likely to be alive in 2030?

  15. Old Grumpy permalink
    December 16, 2020 11:14 pm

    Biden and the EU have to pretend to believe China’s promises because without them their own efforts to keep the increase in global temperatures below 2 degrees C are an exercise in futility.

  16. December 16, 2020 11:50 pm

    Tip : 10am Thu Radio4 *climate comedy*
    “Environmental filmmaker and Woman’s Hour power lister Franny Armstrong thinks it’s time for a bit of climate comedy.
    Having spent the best part of two decades making serious documentaries such as The Age of Stupid, Rivercide and McLibel, Franny talks about reaching new audiences with her film Pie Net Zero, featuring fake news reporter Jonathan Pie.”
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q9bb

    That Pie Net Zero vid was in January got 320K views

    • December 17, 2020 12:21 am

      8pm R4 “The Climate Crisis: Are We Moving Fast Enough?
      The Briefing Room
      China has set a target for net zero CO2 emissions, and the US will shortly.
      The two countries represent over 40 per cent of global emissions.
      But are we moving fast enough?

      With
      – Mark Maslin
      – Byford Tsang of the climate change think tank E3G
      – Pete Ogden, who worked on climate change in the Obama White House, now at the UN Foundation
      – Dr Gabrielle Walker, a writer and consultant to private industry on climate change adaptation”

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q9cv

  17. December 17, 2020 12:39 am

    8pm R4 “The Climate Crisis: Are We Moving Fast Enough?
    The Briefing Room
    China has set a target for net zero CO2 emissions,
    and the US will shortly.
    The two countries represent over 40 % of global emissions.
    But are we moving fast enough?

    With
    – Mark Maslin
    – Byford Tsang of the climate change think tank E3G
    – Pete Ogden, who worked on climate change in the Obama White House, now at the UN Foundation
    – Dr Gabrielle Walker, a writer and consultant to private industry on climate change adaptation”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q9cv

  18. sarastro92 permalink
    December 17, 2020 12:53 am

    Why shouldn’t China encourage her rivals to commit economic suicide? Don’t they deserve it? If I have to choose between Greta and Xi, I know which one I’d prefer.

    Suckers and arrogant lame-brains don’t deserve a break. Stop fretting about China. The real enemy is within. This is why China is on track to be the dominant global economic power for the rest of the 21st Century…

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      December 17, 2020 8:40 am

      ‘The real enemy is within’: and I wonder who is financing them…

      • Gerry, England permalink
        December 17, 2020 12:17 pm

        Following the recent exposure of CCP members working throughout western industry and governments, it looks like they are slowly moving the new staff in too.

  19. December 17, 2020 12:34 pm

    What about the Bill Gates Terrapower reactor?

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/06/a-climate-action-business-model/

  20. It doesn't add up... permalink
    December 17, 2020 1:03 pm

    Ross Clark exposes some truths about the government’s hydrogen mania

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9061803/The-death-knell-gas-boilers-thats-tolling-time.html

    • December 17, 2020 2:55 pm

      Thanks for the link IDAU. Very good article. One trouble with Mail articles is the distracting skimpily clad females in the side bar!

  21. dennisambler permalink
    December 17, 2020 3:14 pm

    Boris was in fine form at the summit:

    https://realclimatescience.com/2020/12/boris-believes-h2o-and-co2-are-toxic/
    “Mr Johnson reaffirmed his commitments to bring about a “10-point plan for a green industrial revolution” and to slash the UK’s emissions by 68 per cent by 2030. The prime minister also called for the world to harness “scientific advances to protect our entire planet against a challenge far more destructive even than coronavirus”.

    He said: “Together, we can reduce our emissions. We can radically cut our dependence on fossil fuels. We can change our agricultural practices. “In short, we can reverse the process by which, for centuries, humanity has been quilting our planet in a toxic tea cosy of greenhouse gases.”

    • December 18, 2020 4:37 pm

      Here, let me fix that for him….

      “Together, we can reduce our emissions. We can radically cut our dependence on fossil fuels. We can change our agricultural practices. “In short, we can reverse the process by which, for centuries, humanity has been [surviving and growing more prosperous on] our planet [and finally put an end to this awful scourge] in a toxic [brew of repression and starvation].”

      I’m sure they’ll dedicate a plaque in memory our sacrifice.

  22. Vrager permalink
    December 17, 2020 5:47 pm

    Never trust a single word dictator Xi says… he’s another Stalin intent on world domination

  23. December 17, 2020 8:13 pm

    I find it interesting that, as I learned from something Will Happer said in a video on the innocence of CO2, that even without the coal burning, dust storms from the Gobi Desert are a much bigger problem at times.
    https://time.com/4766476/china-beijing-pollution-airpocalypse-sandstorm/

    Another problem is that the desert is on the move. Will it swallow up Beijing? Only time will tell.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielrechtschaffen/2017/09/18/how-chinas-growing-deserts-are-choking-the-country/?sh=471214865d1b

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