The UK’s rapidly emerging power flex deficit
By Paul Homewood
Timera with their usual, heavily understated analysis of the truly shocking energy disaster looming over the horizon:
The energy transition is accelerating across Europe, driven by Covid recovery plans and net-zero 2050 targets. This is being reinforced by a rapidly evolving energy policy response to the Russian crisis.
Energy transition is a cornerstone of the UK government’s policy platform, with a broad focus on the environment, economy, jobs, affordability & inequality (e.g. via the Northern Powerhouse strategy). Policy direction here is to a large extent bipartisan.
The UK is the first country in Europe to set a net zero 2035 power sector emissions target. However it faces a major challenge to achieve this goal. Extreme UK power price volatility & system stress events across 2021-22 have highlighted the requirement for major investment in flexible capacity.
In today’s article we set out the UK’s flex deficit challenge and put numbers around the scale of flexible capacity investment required to decarbonise the UK power sector.
Thermal closures outpacing renewables
The UK is retiring coal, nuclear & gas capacity faster than anticipated. The final 4GW of coal is set to close by 2025. Nuclear retirements of 5GW are scheduled by 2030.
At least another 15GW of ageing gas-fired capacity is set to retire in the early 2030s unless owners repower or invest in major life extension capex. Life extension of gas plants requires an economic decarbonization solution which remains elusive.
Wind & solar will form the backbone of power generation in a decarbonised power system. The UK’s FiT/CfD scheme has been an effective mechanism to support roll out of renewable capacity. The challenge is now scaling deployment as fast as possible, particularly of offshore wind e.g. to achieve the 40GW by 2030 target.
However security of supply standards across Europe are set based on derated capacity margins, with wind & solar making limited contributions. This drives the rapidly growing flexible capacity deficit illustrated in Chart 1.
Chart 1: UK derated capacity deficit evolution
Source: Timera Energy
The chart shows:
- projected UK wind & solar capacity build, derated at the government’s official capacity market derating factors (the green bars above the x-axis)
- projected closures of coal, nuclear & gas plants, also derated using CM factors (the blue bars below the x axis)
- projected incremental power demand from decarbonisation of other sectors e.g. transport, heat & industry (the dark green bars below the x-axis).
In summary, the UK needs at least another 15 GW of investment in flexible capacity by 2030, at least 30GW by 2035. That new capacity also needs to be emissions free by 2035 if the government’s decarbonisation target is to be met.
Wind & solar output requires balancing
Wind & solar penetration in the UK is still relatively low compared to a net zero system (25-30% of annual generation output depending on weather conditions). However there has been a sharp increase in the frequency & severity of network stress events since 2020.
These have partly been driven by a shortage of capacity & energy in periods of low wind & solar output. There have also been major frequency and inertia issues in periods of high renewable penetration and inadequate spinning thermal reserve.
As wind & solar penetration increases fast, there is a big challenge in balancing large swings in variable output as well as maintaining a stable network.
Chart 2 illustrates the scale of projected growth in within-day wind & solar output swings.
Chart 2: UK wind + solar intraday swing distributions (GW)
Source: Timera Energy stochastic power market model
The blue diamonds represent average intraday swings in wind & solar output in 2021 vs 2030. The green bars represent the 5th to 95th percentile range of intraday swing distributions.
By 2030, wind & solar output is set to swing by up to 40GW intraday, against a projected peak demand of around 75GW. These swings in output are frequent and can happen in a matter of minutes.
Maintaining security of supply and a stable network under these conditions entirely depends on adequate volumes of flexible capacity. As renewable output grows so do system balancing requirements, underpinning an ongoing need for investment in new flexibility.
Structural requirement for investment in flexible capacity
Our numbers in Chart 1 show a flexible capacity requirement of at least 15GW by 2030, and 30GW by 2035. We estimate at least £30-40 bn of new flex investment is required by the early 2030s to enable this.
In addition to the numbers above, another 14-17GW of residual gas capacity will require decarbonising to achieve the net-zero power sector emissions target by 2035. This can either be achieved by further capacity build, repowering (e.g. with CCUS) or via offsets.
The current menu of flexible capacity options includes:
- Batteries
- Emerging longer duration storage technologies e.g. compressed air, flow batteries
- Interconnectors (noting the challenges of correlated stress events across NW Europe)
- Demand side response (recognising limited flexible demand resource)
- Peakers (focus on engines, recognising requirement to decarbonise e.g. via hydrogen retrofitting)
- CCGT + CCUS (high CAPEX & likely limited to industrial clusters)
- Residual gas i.e. unabated gas dealt with temporarily via offsets.
https://timera-energy.com/the-uks-rapidly-emerging-power-flex-deficit/
So, to recap:
- As reliable generation capacity disappears and electricity demand grows, we will be faced with a shortfall in dispatchable power of 15 GW by 2030, and a horrifying 30 GW by 2035.
- The actual outlook is probably much worse, as the de-rated government assumptions for wind and solar are not realistic. Wind, for example, is assumed to be able to supply at least 20% of capacity at all times, clearly a nonsense.
- The more we add renewable capacity, the greater the volatility for the grid:
Whereas wind power current fluctuates between about 2 GW and 10 GW, by 2030 the range will be 4 GW to 32 GW.
Regardless of battery storage and demand side response, I don’t believe any grid can handle such huge fluctuations. It certainly has not been proven.
- The calculations also include 14 to 17 GW of existing gas capacity which will need carbon storage systems added. Such systems still don’t exists at economic scale, despite years of effort. And it is debatable whether gas plant owners will want to spend billions on plants which may only have a short life left.
And the “solutions” naively offered by Timera? Batteries, DSR, Interconnectors (which they acknowledge may not be reliable at times of stress in Europe, and burning gas.
But as they themselves regularly admit, batteries, DSR and other forms of storage are strictly short term measures – that is for an hour or two, designed to manage fluctuations in grid frequency and peak demands.
They are utterly useless when power is needed for days and weeks on end, when the wind stops blowing.
Which brings us back to gas.
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“The energy transition is accelerating across Europe, driven by Covid recovery plans.”
You never let a serious crisis go to waste. It’s an opportunity to do things you could not do before. [Rahm Emmanuel]
It was Churchill who used it far earlier than Emmanuel
There is a simple solution – accept that CO2 is not a threat to the planet – and let burning gas continue. I suggest that those who are young enough now might look back in 2050 and see that CO2 has not reduced at all, and its all been a waste of time and money. Sadly, I will not be around!
I am threatening to come back for a visit James. Will it be laughing or crying?
“Wind & solar will form the backbone of power generation in a decarbonised power system”!! Are Timera serious?? That’s a physical impossibility, unless you accept wide ranging, random power outages across the nation that could last for days on end. What numbskull thought of this nonsense? Oh yes, Ed bl**dy Milliband. Who continues this nonsense? Oh yes, Boris bl**dy Johnson. When can we be rid of these total idiots?
Don’t hold back friend, say what you think!!,!
Totally agree by the way
That was holding back 😁
I wonder if they will both be visiting Canterbury Cathedral in the near future?
Canterbury? Were you perhaps thinking of “troublesome priests”?
All very interesting. But nobody has shown me empirical evidence that CO2 is causing global warming or climate change. As senator Malcolm Roberts in Australia repeatedly asks “show me hard evidence”. A counter argument by reputable scientists is not heard. Suppressed by government and implemented by main stream media. We need to get back to challenging “ the science is settled” and have free and open debate. In the end it is Mr. average who picks up the tab?
DSR by pricing will be the likely outcome, the poor freeze, the rich charge their EVs and continue with their heat pumps. Then the poor riot and torch the rich mans EV on the drive. The dystopian future of Net Zero awaits our children.
Unless the EV has torched itself first.
Priceless. Welldone!
DSR – or rationing as it should truthfully be called.
To summarise, in the absence of a complete shift in HMG’s energy strategy, we’re all doomed. As a, once popular, Russian meerkat once said, ‘Simples!’
Thinking of energy security, has our government carried out any assessment of the vulnerability of off shore wind farms to the likes of Putin or his successor? They look like easy targets to me…
Why would they bother when wind lulls can take out the whole lot for several days?
“Wind, for example, is assumed to be able to supply at least 20% of capacity at all times, clearly a nonsense.”
No doubt that nonsense figure has come from National-Grid-Ofgem.
The actual figure can be expressed in a very simple way: whatever the peak demand is for a particular year, conventional sources (including interconnectors and hydro) will be required to supply around 98% of that, at least once, unless those high demand days fall on a weekend or public holiday.
Doubling wind power, at enormous cost, only reduces the figure to 96%.
Government and Octopus seem to share the view that wind reduces the need for gas imports. The hard data show something quite else.
https://image.vuukle.com/9ffc6604-feed-474e-a82d-c2de2f561502-b0284ba4-60a0-4ad0-97ab-9afe9b82779b
We’re using more gas than in 1997! We had the flexibility to cope with high gas prices in 2011-2015 in the aftermath of Fukushima, by substituting with coal for electricity generation. But with coal capacity gone and nuclear eroding, we now rely on gas and imports when the wind doesn’t blow. Wind has simply replaced baseload generation while doing nothing to reduce the need for flexible volumes.
Incidentally, I am complaining to the ASA about Octopus advertising claiming that wind supplants gas, with this chart as some of the evidence. The more detailed claim that comes up if you click their ad is here:
https://octopus.energy/build/
Others are welcome to add their voices… It’s also a way of attacking the government’s insane policy.
‘Wind & solar will form the backbone of power generation in a decarbonised power system.’
And your businesses will pack up and move elsewhere.
I recommend studying neolithic architecture.
>Which brings us back to gas.
No, this just creates another single point of failure, which is then a risk to continuity of supply.
We need to come to terms with the need to build a new fleet of reliable and proven nth-of-a-kind coal fired generating stations. These should be located near ports for access world markets. They should have the storage capacity for the vast reserves to secure supply through seasonal variation and the uncertainties of other elements of the mix.
The first could on-line within about 5 years, if the planning system looks upon it favourably. That’s about as quick as we’re going to get for firm technology operating at economic scale.
For clarity, “world market” includes domestic supply, so this enables self-sufficiency, if that’s a policy goal. Access to international supply would help to keep at bay some of the past excesses of UK coal mining.
We can do the above, or we can continue to gaze into a widening abys.
I’ve often thought the CO2 rich, warm waste gases from burning coal, suitably cleaned, could be used in vast greenhouses attached to the power stations. Excess power at night could be used to power LED artificial lighting to boost growth. We could then start growing more of our own food rather than importing. This could then be seen as a “green” solution, with the CO2 produced being “captured” to some degree by the vegetation, and with the reduction in food transport emissions.
A bit like this fairly near me
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanet_Earth#Power
@ Jordan. The planning process for coal-fired power stations should be streamlined, this an energy emergency after all.
Fortunately there’s a plentiful supply of hopium. But it will run out sooner than they realise – then what?
I am corresponding with the National Grid ESO asking broadly the same question.
Their website is full of very well written articles of how in the future they will deal with the problems. Unfortunately it looks like the authors are professional writers not professional engineers.
Intermittency is the main problem and average figures are useless as the grid is instantaneous, and there are many times when renewable output is in single figure Gwatts, a significant shortfall from demand. (The only good ‘renewable’ from a generation point of view only is Drax’s biomass plant).
Load balance is an essential also and requires controllable generation for this to happen, mostly gas but when that is shut down as the government is planning I see nothing else unless small modular reactors, which are supposed to be able to do this are built and commissioned in a very short time, lots of them. At just under 500 Mwatts and for a shortfall of even 15 Gwatts as outlined in the article needs thirty of them, not taking into account availability and other factors.
Hello Paul, I am somebody who reads their meters weekly to keep a spreadsheet of usage. Once it is all set up, it takes minutes to snap the meters with my phone and then update on a Saturday morning while having morning coffee and checking on sites for the latest news such as on here. I always know what my last 12 months use is so can get accurate quotes – back in the day when that was worth doing of course. And have provided graphs to contest attempts by suppliers to hike my monthly DDs.
But…no, I just get on with my life and don’t hunt around trying to cut use at every turn. I have had electricity monitors before but can assure readers that the novelty wears of quite quickly and they are put in a draw, left to run the batteries down etc, and were finally chucked away.
I have asked Shell to explain why the standing charge has gone up 73% from next month and am still waiting to see how they cover it.
Energy security? I gather syngas is about to make a come back.
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/01/wood-gas-cars.html
And as I have said before we should all start investing in methanol stills.
https://sciencing.com/make-methanol-5396607.html
Wood is environmentally friendly…so I am told.