More Sea Level Porn
By Paul Homewood
Yes, it’s Whack-A-Mole time again!
Nearly 200,000 homes and businesses in England are at risk of being lost to rising sea levels by the 2050s, a new study has warned.
Researchers said the country could face around 14 inches (35cm) of sea level rise compared to historic levels within 30 years and is nearly certain to see close to 3ft (1m) of advancement by the end of the century.
It comes a week after the official in charge of Britain’s flood protection said some of Britain’s seaside towns and villages may have to be abandoned because of rising seas and coastal erosion.
There is zero chance that sea levels will rise by 14 inches by 2050, equivalent to 13mm a year.
In the last fifty years, the rate of rise on the vulnerable East Coast has been just 1.54mm a year, much slower than the first half of the 20thC:
https://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=170-053
They also invoke the “coastal erosion” bogeyman, even though they must know that the coast has been eroding for thousands of years:
https://withernsea1.co.uk/CCO-LostVillages.html
But to pretend that 200,000 homes are at risk in just thirty years time is nothing but scandalous.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
These sea level scare mongers are utterly ridiculous. If we wanted to engineer sea defences its is pretty straight forward. All they need to do is look across the north sea to Holland. Amsterdam is 4.0 metres below sea level. I went a week a month ago and i didn’t need to take my wellingtons. Utter alarmist rubbish .
And that, William, is the nature of the beast. The chicken-littles of the climate scare are themselves running scared – so they are piling on the scare stories as much as possible. Like, announcing – endlessly – that today would be hottest Evan! And they had to go to Heathrow to get it. Pathetic.
Yes saw this with regards to the coast as Happisburgh, pronounced Haisboro for the uninitiated.! The original sea defences have been abandoned /allowed to fall apart by the County Council over the last 50 years or so hence the rate of the existing coastal erosion has increased here .Nothing to do with the Global warming tripe..
The whole of East Anglias coast is composed of soft rocks/sands and clays so any decent storm will always remove a chunk Over time as its soft it will erode back. Storms just speed it up in parts .
“Researchers said the country could face around 14 inches (35cm) of sea level rise compared to historic levels within 30 years and is nearly certain to see close to 3ft (1m) of advancement by the end of the century.”
Researchers? If we take bold action to urgently lower our CO2 emissions from the fuels we need to make transitions to renewables…. is it “certain” that everything will be OK??? Sea levels will stop rising? Are you sure?
The effect of CO2 (if any) on sea level will take 1,000s of years: the effect of replacing coal with ruinables will take longer – if at all.
It seems Researchers! are the enemy of the people.
The Researchers ARE the enemy of the people . . . They forgot that Planet Earth is a ‘Centrifuge’ spinning at 1,700 km per hour. That collects water in the CENTRE of the Oceans at what are known as Gyers and along the Equator . . . ANY water going into the Oceans from melting Glaciers accumulates there . . . These researchers have to realize that ‘The Earth is NOT Flat’ . . . I think Columbus proved that . . .??
Quite so, Jim.
A decade or so ago I had an argument with a “climate scientist” on one of the climate blogs because I stated that any significant loss of polar land ice such as on Greenland or Antarctica should be reflected in a measurable variation in the length of day data as the water would tend to redistribute itself around the Equator, hence increasing the Earth’s polar moment of inertia and as a result of conservation of momentum, change the Earth’s angular velocity.
After considerable argument he admitted I might have a point.
This One FACT that Planet Earth is a centrifuge is ALWAYS missed as though the Earth is flat . . . One other thing Always missed is that the Continents are ‘Floating in the Earth’s mantle with 2/3 more ‘Rock’ below the surface than what we see I give a graphic of this and an explanation of ‘Continental Float’ and ‘Self leveling Oceans’ on pages 28 – 31 in the following Paper . . .
https://www.academia.edu/45570971/The_Environmentalist_and_The_Neanderthal
I include pictures and paintings of various well known sea level Cities covering 1,000 years NO change in water levels . . . Warming Periods to Cooling Periods and Back . . .
The report referred to was authored by a civil engineer https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul- sayers-21713217/?originalSubdomain=uk
His company….http://www.sayersandpartners.co.uk is simply seeking to generate business for itself. So bung a few dopey journos to get them to print your climate porn and watch the money roll in.
The Guardian printed their version of this piece headed with a photo of homes in Faversham (an area I know very well – I was married there!) that are in fact 6 metres amsl.
A useful internet tool to check elevations is here
https://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm
Sorry my original link was broken – here is the right one
https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-sayers-21713217/?originalSubdomain=uk
Of course you could use Ordnance Survey mapping to estimate mAOD.
Ordnance datum is measured as mean sea level at Newlyn
I was born and raised along the shores of Maritime Canada. My Home property along the beach is facing the very same issue of erosion. What I have discovered is that erosion and siltation from agriculture and deforestation has accumulated along the shore and the ‘Sand Levels’ out beyond 20 – 30 feet from shore have accumulated. There used to be a ‘Sharp’ drop off out 20 feet. That is gone and filled with sand . . . we can now walk out on a sandy bottom 60 – 80 feet. Here, at this location, 50 years ago there was a commercial fishing dock at the mouth of the river . . . At that time ‘Dredging’ was common to keep the port clear. Maybe all we need is dredging to clear away the accumulated sand near shore . . . and the erosion will be ended . . . one ‘Test Site’ would be all it takes to prove . . .
jim, coastal areas, rivers, stream and even ponds require maintenance, as you suggest in your comment. Many decades ago a golf course greenkeeper explained to me the power of nature and the work required to keep things ‘as they are’. Nature will take over, it is powerful.
Like inland flooding, anything to do with coastal flooding is a direct result of incompetent maintenance, cheap sort-term “remedial” measures and sheer ignorance on the part of semi-literate semi-educated people paid far too much to push paper around.
Due to isostatic rebound, England is sinking and Scotland is rising. The easy answer to loss of all these properties is to relocate them to Caithness. This will help to rebalance Great Britain and hopefully prevent it from capsizing.
my understanding is that the pivot point is roughly from The Wash to St Davids, Pembrokeshire. if anyone has more precise info, I’d be interested to know
It’s a lot worse than I had thought then David. If that’s the axis of rotation, a full capsizing of GB will result in Scotland flipping landing in northern France. Scotland would then be part of the EU, as promised by the SNP.
The government really needs to take action to stop the progress of isostatic rebound in its tracks. This could be called the “levelling up policy”, although I think that one’s already been taken.
I’ve said this before but it’s worth repeating; when we got married (1963) my in-laws had a holiday home at Barmston probably about 50 or 60 yards from the beach. Four years later I took a photograph of my daughter on the beach with the bungalow certainly no more than half that distance away. I still have it somewhere.
Sea level rise has nothing to do with the situation on the east coast. The Holderness is pure sand, all the way back (I’m told) to Beverley. Spurn Point at the mouth of the Humber is where the scour ends up. That is what Spurn Point is!
https://www.thesuffolkcoast.co.uk/suffolk-coast-towns-and-villages/dunwich has information on the long-lost “city” of Dunwich which disappeared centuries ago also due to erosion of the East Anglia coastline. Some authorities (I understand) associate erosion here with the silting up of both New Romney and Sandwich, two of the original Cinque Ports now no longer on the coast!
Nome of which has anything to do with CO2 emissions, sea-level rise or global warming!
The real joke of this report Mike is that it lists both New Romney and Sandwich as high risk areas!
As they say, “you couldn’t make this stuff up!”🤪
Drivel, damned drivel and UEA Sea Level Studies.
All the usual suspects turn up in this wonderful piece of “science” that we have all helped pay for:
– “assuming a 4 °C rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) from pre-industrial times”
– “England will have to adapt to close to 1 m of sea level rise by the end of the 21st Century”
– “unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5)”
Sure, there are places like Happisburgh where there is a serious coastal erosion problem. Sea level rise is the least of their worries – their soft cliffs are being ground away fast by the current sea level.
Where I grew up we’d get several floods a year from particularly high tides. As a lad I noticed that these floods never reached houses, and didn’t flood the warehouses at the harbour – though they did flood their loading bays. I deduced that the Victorians had built the houses and warehouses with a good sense of how high the tides would be.
It also implied that there can’t have been much sea-level rise in that area since Victorian times.
There was a village not far away that had been a Roman naval base but is now land-locked. Maybe the Barack Obamas of this world buy property in such places in hopes that it will become valuable sea-front property again. But no: they buy land that’s already on the sea-front. It’s a mystery. Or they are liars. Take your pick.
Coastal Erosion was happening long before the CO2 Emissions was invented as the bogeyman that will bring “doom and gloom to the planet” and threaten “our children’s future”
There is zero evidence that there has been an increase in coastal storms, so how do the ‘experts’ explain historical coastal erosion going back 100s of years; long before the Industrial Revolution?
The correct term is “fear porn”.
The term used — “porn” — creates expectations
of nude women, and there are none,
so readers get disappointed.
At least I was !
You certainly get about Richard. I was taking a break from M.C. comments, they strain my brain after a while.
I estimate that a 156m increase in sea level will make cause my home to be a seaside cottage and put thousands on its value!
Bring it on!
‘The study also cautioned that it may not be possible to protect some communities from the threat of flooding’
The government has no duty to ‘protect communities.’ But it is convenient for communists to act like they have responsibility. For with responsibility comes authority.
If coastal residents feel threatened, they’ll move. No government involvement needed.
In 1953 there were devastating floods in Eastern England that were the worst natural disaster in modern British History. Over 300 people died with a very large number of deaths on Canvey Island, Essex. Winston Churchill (then PM) wanted Canvey Island to be abandoned as it was felt it could not be adequately protected but the government simply did not have the authority to do that. Instead of the evacuated residents giving up on the place they returned, it subsequently thrived and now has an expanding population of almost 40,000.
Seems things work better when governments keep out of peoples private affairs. If this did not put them off not much will https://theconversation.com/1953-storm-surge-how-britains-worst-natural-disaster-kicked-off-the-debate-on-climate-change-71310#:~:text=The%20worst%20natural%20disaster%20in,Britain%2C%20particularly%20south%20of%20Yorkshire.
“I’m from the Government and I’m here to help!”
The UK could and did provide further defences. The Thames and Humber storm surge barriers resulted
The Dutch suffered even worse effects (1800 deaths) with the dykes and barriers breached in over 60 places. Their answer was to build newer and higher barriers further out along the North Sea itself
>”In the last fifty years, the rate of rise on the vulnerable East Coast has been just 1.54mm a year, much slower than the first half of the 20thC”
The Tides and Currents 50 yr trend analyses of high quality long running tide guages destroys the notion of an anthro signal in sea levels. If an anthropogenic signal were to emerge it would have to be a greater trend than those high trends of the first half of the 20thC as is common among the HQ long running guages at Tides and Currents – not the most recent, and lower, 50 yr trends.
An anthro signal is also so far elusive in the satellite observations of the planet’s largest ocean too:
‘Is anthropogenic sea level fingerprint already detectable in the Pacific Ocean?’
H Palanisamy, B Meyssignac, A Cazenave and T Delcroix (2015)”
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084024
3.3. Discussion and conclusion
“Furthermore, regressed CMIP5 MME-based sea level spatial trend pattern in the tropical Pacific over the altimetry period do not display any positive sea level trend values that are comparable to the altimetry based sea level signal after having removed the contribution of the decadal natural climate mode. This suggests that the residual positive trend pattern observed in the western tropical Pacific is not externally forced and thereby not anthropogenic in origin.”
“…satellite altimetry measurement is still not accurate enough to detect the anthropogenic signal in the 20 year tropical Pacific sea level trends.”
In short, the answer to their paper title question is – no.
Its even worse in New Zealand. A recent study, commissioned by the government for a mere $7M, was ostensibly to look at sea level rise from the point of view of land uplift/ subsidence as identified by satellite data. But actually, that was a Trojan Horse for adding in behind it absurd models of sea level rise which are several times the actual rate of sea level rise at the coast as per the 100+ year records from all NZ’s major ports. It was released to the media with great fanfare, with the lead scientist predicting doom and gloom for swathes of the NZ coastline, immediately followed by our PM, the one and only Jacinda, beating her perpetual drum about the global warming catastrophe, and how we kiwis have to stop it by screwing up our economy even more than she has already done. And to add insult to injury,not only were the sea rise models absurd, but the land uplift study was scientifically flawed.
You can be sure that the commissioned study produced the results that the government wanted in the first place. By whatever means.
The problem with “whack a mole” is that if you put some more money into the machine the game starts all over again.
This climate change scare story makes it on to the TV news time after time, and the pictures of Norfolk coastal erosion are trotted out as proof.
But as any contrary opinions are not allowed because climate change is mentioned we just go round again.
Journalists and the media in general must be reminded of the 5 principals of Journalism !
Thank goodness for this site where you can comment. But unfortunately it’s preaching to the converted
quite right ! Yet, the more we preach the more we reinforce each other’s knowledge base and the STRONGER we become in disseminating TRUTH. The broader our knowledge base the harder it is to ignore. Persistence and wise council draws attention that in time becomes a Movement . . .
Apparently Sunderland will be at risk by 2050. It’s 80 metres above sea level. Why do people write such obvious nonsense.
It’s a port?
https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/map-shows-which-sunderland-streets-will-be-submerged-if-sea-levels-rise-176153
Having lived on the same part of the coast for 6 decades, it’s extraordinary that I can still use the same beach side shingle strewn paths I always could, yet in about another 3 decades I’m supposed to believe they will be drowned.
Meanwhile the UK is currently running nuclear in the orange to supply French air conditioners via the interconnect with nearly 1.5GW
That’s less than 1% of UK homes. So we should wreck our economy and impoverish ourselves for less than 1% of homes?
Makes no sense.
Gotta keep the ‘scare’ levels up! Even when we are at a time of year and in weather conditions (hope they last) that sees creeks, streams and small rivers dry up. I remember visiting Rye, Sussex, in summer for the first time over fifty years ago. The tide was out and I will never forget the stench from the mud in the almost dry harbour because the river Rother that fed it was reduced to a trickle.
Forget what will happen in 28 years time, these researchers forecast what ‘might’ happen in several centuries time.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10926997/Antarcticas-Doomsday-Glacier-melting-fast-raise-sea-levels-11ft-end-century.html
The grant application must be in the post.
I also have a short follow-up article on this, if you don’t mind, here: