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Autumns To Get Drier–(Or Not, As The Case Might Be)

August 31, 2022

By Paul Homewood

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UK autumns are likely to become drier on average and more ‘summer-like’ with increasing climate change according to new research from the Met Office.

Daniel Cotterill is the lead scientist behind the study, which focusses on the projected likelihood of occurrence of weather patterns, of which there are 30 standard types. He said: “Each weather pattern over the UK brings certain characteristics, whether that’s rainfall or temperature.

“Using climate models and the UK Climate Projections, our research found that the largely ‘summer-like’ weather patterns -bringing drier conditions – will begin to extend into the start of autumn. And weather patterns such as those dominated by large low-pressure systems, will tend to occur slightly less in autumn in future.

“Although we don’t expect to see this shift in pattern imminently, a key finding from this study is that from the mid-2020s warmer and drier autumns following hotter and drier summers could increase drought risk.”

The strength of the shift in weather patterns is dependent upon the rate of greenhouse gas emissions are emitted into the atmosphere. Climate scientists refer to these different rates as emissions’ pathways. Daniel added: “Our research compares a very low-emissions pathway to a very high-emission scenario. What we see is these effects are a lot stronger in the high-emissions scenarios, and this suggests that these changes in weather patterns are due to human influence and the resulting effect of warming on atmospheric circulation.”

The study shows that we’re likely going to see less rain in autumn on average. But, backing up other studies, it signalled the potential for extreme rainfall events to be interspersed between the drier spells.

Daniel added: “This is a signal we’ll start to perhaps see over the next ten years. We’re likely to see a 4 to 12% reduction in rainfall in English regions in the future in autumn. And this depends very much on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios. One of the things we are already seeing in autumn as average seasonal temperatures rise is an increase in the number of extreme rainfall events. But in future, we’re likely to see this drying effect as well.

“UK Climate Projections have shown for some time that we can expect hotter, drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. Our study shows we are likely to see hotter and drier autumns on average too.

Daniel added: “To see how situations might unfold we could consider the autumn of 2020. On 3 October we saw the UK’s wettest day on record and the volume of rainfall which fell on the UK that day could have filled Loch Ness. However, if you look at the overall rainfall for that autumn, it’s actually only 6% above average and that is because of a drier September and November that year.”

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/08/30/future-summers-could-last-longer-hints-met-office-research/

Back in the real world there are no long term trends in autumn rainfall, either up or down.

How much taxpayers’ money is being wasted on junk studies like this one?

52 Comments
  1. August 31, 2022 11:31 am

    Clearly, the Met Office haven’t seen this: https://clintel.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/WCD-version-06272215121.pdf
    “There is no climate emergency”.

  2. Ray Sanders permalink
    August 31, 2022 11:34 am

    “which focusses on the projected likelihood of occurrence of weather patterns, of which there are 30 standard types.” At that point I stopped reading for the benefit of my blood pressure. So now it has been decreed there are “30 standard types” of weather patterns. Jeez the lunatics really have taken over the asylum… as well as the computer programming.

  3. Mack permalink
    August 31, 2022 11:34 am

    Autumns to become more ‘summer like’ i.e. drier. Wasn’t it the very same Met Office who, a few years back, was predicting our summers were going to be getting wetter because of man’s carbon sins? This filthy denier is getting mightily confused by all the settled science the Met Office keeps lobbing at us.

    • dave permalink
      August 31, 2022 2:14 pm

      “…keeps lobbing at us…”

      No need to take cover. They are all ‘duds.’

      The powers that be are always trying to distract the sheeple from any news that is actually relevant to them. The calculation of the BBC seems to be that people in this country are so dim that they can be brought to fret about far-away lumps of ice instead of about the steadily worsening excess-deaths data. Three hundred a day now.! Only 3% of reorded deaths have Covid-19 as the principal cause of death; and so there is something else going on.

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      August 31, 2022 6:46 pm

      The Met. Orifice.

  4. August 31, 2022 11:45 am

    The good Lord spare us from climate models, please. And we don’t just have climate change but increasing climate change – grammatically incorrect but who’s worried.

    • Penda100 permalink
      August 31, 2022 3:06 pm

      Climate Change is so last year. Now we have Climate Catastrophe (attributed by the BBC, aka Minitrue, to the UN regarding the floods in Pakistan. Or if you prefer, Climate Crisis or Climate Chaos. I wonder what the next adjective will be?

      • August 31, 2022 3:29 pm

        We’ve already had “emergency” and “breakdown”, so perhaps “Armageddon”?

      • Penda100 permalink
        August 31, 2022 6:07 pm

        Armageddon is good or Apocalypse maybe. Whatever it is it will have to sound suitably scary to keep the little people frightened.

      • JohnM permalink
        August 31, 2022 4:28 pm

        Global Warming, Climate Change, Climate Catastrophe, Climate chaos, Climate Catastrophe, Climate Apocalypse (what will be the next phrase in this never ending escalation of hyperbola?) – promote by Global Clowns.

  5. Mike Jackson permalink
    August 31, 2022 11:51 am

    It’s to align with the number of different genders, Ray. Climate was starting to feel left out of the multi-trending experience!

  6. Martin Brumby permalink
    August 31, 2022 11:56 am

    “UK autumns are likely to become drier on average and more ‘summer-like’ with increasing climate change according to new research from the Met Office.”

    Surprising. But not as surprising as the notion that this might not be a good, entirely welcome thing

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      August 31, 2022 6:47 pm

      More Indian summers? Goody!

  7. Harry Passfield permalink
    August 31, 2022 12:19 pm

    I suspect Daniel Cotterill, the lead scientist is in his mid to late forties so, in terms of his projections should be retiring around the time they start to have effect. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if his pension depended on him being right because, for sure, there will be a lot of people on the breadline when he’s wrong (caused by stupid government costly actions based on him being right).

    • Ray Sanders permalink
      August 31, 2022 2:12 pm

      Harry your “suspicion” is actually quite a way out. By my calculations Danny boy is still in his twenties as he started university in 2011 aged 18.
      https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-cotterill-4979babb/?originalSubdomain=uk
      I never wish to seem ageist (I have 3 children 0f 30, 28 and 24) but really this guy is just a kid who has been institutionalised by the education system (didn’t leave university until 3 years ago following an MSc) and probably knows sweet FA about the real world. He would probably believe the summer of 1976 was mild and damp as was the winter of 1962/3 was if his computer programme told him so.

      • dave permalink
        August 31, 2022 2:21 pm

        “…knows sweet FA about the real world.”

        He knows enough…enough to get an undeserved pay-check.

      • Dave Andrews permalink
        September 1, 2022 4:56 pm

        “institutionalised by the education system” as per this 22 year old student from Brighton taking part in a ‘Just Stop Oil’ blockade of petrol stations on the M25

        “We have such a short window of time to act to avoid the complete destruction of all we know and love ” She also claimed that the ending of fossil fuel consumption was this generations “mission”

        (Guardian 25 Aug 22)

  8. Chris Phillips permalink
    August 31, 2022 12:49 pm

    As usual with mathematical models, you can get any output you want by suitably adjusting the assumptions that you input. The assumptions are necessary because of the large number of unknown factors in the highly complex weather systems. These models are indeed useful for comparing outcomes with different assumptions, but are near useless in making predictions about actual outcomes. Still, this doesn’t stop the Met Office using models in this way!

  9. that man permalink
    August 31, 2022 12:52 pm

    “UK autumns are likely to become drier on average and more ‘summer-like’.”

    Hope they’re right, this time.

  10. MrGrimNasty permalink
    August 31, 2022 12:57 pm

    More wind. On BBC radio this morning, magnificent engineering/sight, does no harm to wildlife, always windy in the N.Sea, cheap,…….
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62731923.amp

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      August 31, 2022 1:00 pm

      Whilst introducing us to embracing rationed power.
      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-62686916

      • W Flood permalink
        August 31, 2022 2:09 pm

        Well, Scoraig is a bit notorious for being full of runaway nutty alternative types. Mostly from England I’m afraid. People have indeed lived in Scoraig for centuries but the indigenous folk abandoned the place years ago. Don’t be fooled, these people love hardship. It’s why they went there.

    • Crowcatcher permalink
      August 31, 2022 1:07 pm

      Another BBC idiot to add to the long list🥳🤬👿👹

    • August 31, 2022 1:20 pm

      “The Hornsea 2 project can generate enough electricity to power about 1.3 million homes”. Note the little word “can”, which basically means it can’t except for the odd few seconds here and there. If it could, they would have said “will”. Such deception!

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        August 31, 2022 3:02 pm

        And only as long as they use gas for heating and petrol/diesel for cars. The average home only uses a small amount of electricity compared to their total energy use. And I wonder why they don’t use aluminium smelters or steel works for their metric!

      • eastdevonoldie permalink
        September 3, 2022 7:57 am

        I know from working on IT projects the Benefits Case is always exaggerated and never delivers what is claimed!

  11. johnbillscott permalink
    August 31, 2022 12:58 pm

    The Met cannot even accurately predict accurate short term forecasts, so why should anyone seriously believe they can possibly be any better with long term forecasting. I guess the bigger, better and faster computers are the causation maybe we should take these toys away from them as their “modeling” is pitiful and they ignore the old saw – garbage in – garbage out.

    • August 31, 2022 1:00 pm

      And yet Piers Corbyn (WeatherAction, & Jeremy Corbyn’s brother) get better mid-long range results using a laptop.

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        August 31, 2022 6:48 pm

        But he’s a proper scientist, First in Astrophysics.

      • August 31, 2022 9:27 pm

        Thank you. I meant to say he was an astrophysicist.

  12. Broadlands permalink
    August 31, 2022 1:16 pm

    “And weather patterns such as those dominated by large low-pressure systems, will tend to occur slightly less in autumn in future.”

    How are “large low-pressure systems” affected by CO2 emissions?

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      August 31, 2022 6:49 pm

      They’re not. Easy answer.

  13. Gamecock permalink
    August 31, 2022 1:42 pm

    “Weather forecasts are for entertainment purposes.” — Gamecock

    • johnbillscott permalink
      August 31, 2022 1:57 pm

      Hit right on the nail. The weather forecast business on TV is now a show with the “Weather Presenters” vying for star status. Hence everything has to be breathtakingly extreme “worst/highest/coldest/hottest/snowiest/windiest evah”. Long gone are the good old days when we listened to the staid weather forecasts on steam radio I particularly remember the listing of the sea areas.

  14. eastdevonoldie permalink
    August 31, 2022 1:51 pm

    A couple of drier autumns over the next decade is entirely possible but the UN IPCC measure Climate Change is “climate change over a 30 year period in a defined area”. This report is on safe ground because it may well be partially correct but will be forgotten/discarded, like so many alarmist reports to date, as soon as it become evident that it is total bo**ocks, not least because it is based on Met Office “climate models and the UK Climate Projections”, and replaced with yet even more alarmist predictions.
    Has the Met Office gpt anything right to date?
    These papers keep coming on a regular basis to keep the money flowing and the scam going. Only yesterday we had the latest instalment with:

    • W Flood permalink
      August 31, 2022 2:15 pm

      Actually if you look at this year’s data you will see that there has been very little melting of Greenland ice. Slightly over 400 billion tons less than in 2012. This fact needs highlighting Paul. (Source – WUWT sea ice website)

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      September 1, 2022 7:46 am

      That literally every bit of research shows its “worse” than thought simply confirms this as garbage. Its just not credible that all previous research erred on the optimistic side. And it’s always a “new method” not better data.

      Just non-science now.

      • Gamecock permalink
        September 2, 2022 10:03 pm

        Excellent comment!

  15. Gerry, England permalink
    August 31, 2022 1:57 pm

    ‘models…the UK Climate Projections’

    Next!

  16. August 31, 2022 2:02 pm

    I seem to recollect that one upon a time that’s what we called “Indian summers”…

    • W Flood permalink
      August 31, 2022 2:17 pm

      Native American summers surely!

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        August 31, 2022 6:51 pm

        Nah, Indian, as in India. That would be a red indian summer..

    • Gamecock permalink
      September 3, 2022 10:15 pm

      Here in SE USA, “Indian summer” is warm weather (>70 degrees) after we have had a frost.

  17. Hugh Sharman permalink
    August 31, 2022 2:16 pm

    Paul! You are a treasure! Thanks!

  18. MrGrimNasty permalink
    August 31, 2022 8:13 pm

    And yet after the wet autumn as seen in 2000 :-
    “Global warming made the floods that devastated England and Wales in the autumn of 2000, costing £3.5bn, between two and three times more likely to happen, new research has found. ”
    So whilst getting dryer they are also likely to get ‘floodier’, remarkable theory this climate change, where any eventuality supports the theory.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/feb/16/climate-change-risk-uk-floods

    • August 31, 2022 8:18 pm

      Indeed, MGM!

      That’s why it was changed from “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”, it covers all possible outcomes.

  19. 186no permalink
    August 31, 2022 8:18 pm

    Farmers will remember the Autumns of 2012 and 2020 the latter preventing them in large measure from drilling winter crops ……due to prolonged heavy rain until field were saturated. Wonder what the BBC Weather service (?) said would happen in each of those years with their longer term forecasts done I the Summer….

  20. Graeme No.3 permalink
    August 31, 2022 11:30 pm

    The Met Office song

    You put your right fool in You take your right fool out And you shake all about
 You do the hocus pocus And demand your finances be boosted again


    You put your right guess in You take your right guess out And you shake all about
 You do the hocus pocus And demand your finances be boosted again

    Etc. Etc.

  21. Beagle permalink
    September 1, 2022 1:53 am

    I wonder how they define an” extreme rainfall event”?

    • dennisambler permalink
      September 1, 2022 5:58 pm

      The language is the thing. There are various mantras that are constantly repeated so that they are internalised in the public consciousness.

      Familiar ones are:
      “rapidly warming planet”, “rising sea levels” “melting Arctic”, “increasing scientific evidence”, “overwhelming scientific evidence” “scientific consensus”, “attacking the science”, “the world’s top scientists”, (meaning anything from IPCC), “the latest science” [another modelling run], etc. Model outputs are no longer presented as projections but as factual predictions, these claims WILL happen. Model outputs are used as facts for the next model run, creating a circular virtual reality.

  22. Phoenix44 permalink
    September 1, 2022 7:35 am

    So his example is a misuse of averages. Great. As for “4%” higher, is he actually so stupid as to believe his models are that accurate? Or that 4% isn’t within say 2SDs of the mean of natural variability?

    I really don’t think these “researchers” understand the basics.

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