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Hurricane Nicole

November 10, 2022

By Paul Homewood

 

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Hurricane Nicole was downgraded to a tropical storm after making landfall along Florida’s east coast as a Category 1 hurricane early Thursday morning.

The storm made landfall around 3 a.m. near Vero Beach, bringing with it vicious winds and a dangerous storm surge.

Evacuations were ordered across Florida, including former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. The storm surge is expected to peak Thursday morning between 8 and 9 a.m.

The storm marks the third time in recorded history that a November hurricane has made landfall in Florida. The other two November hurricanes were the 1935 Yankee Hurricane and Hurricane Kate in 1985.

https://www.foxnews.com/weather/florida-prepares-for-impact-of-hurricane-nicole-major-coastal-flooding-expected

Nicole was, in reality, an extremely weak hurricane, with estimated winds of 75 mph – Cat 1s are defines as 74 to 95 mph. The storm surge is also expected to be relatively slight:

[Image of cumulative wind history]

No doubt, some climate activist will be wheeled out to claim that hurricanes this late in the year are rare, but as Fox point out, there have been other November hurricanes in Florida, in 1935 and 1985. They were both Cat 2s, with winds of 98 mph.

According to Wikipedia, on average we get a tropical storm somewhere in the Atlantic every other November, though of course it is pot luck whether they hit land or not:

On average, one tropical storm forms during every other November. On rare occasions, a major hurricane occurs. The few intense hurricanes in November include Hurricane "Cuba" in late October and early November 1932 (the strongest November hurricane on record peaking as a Category 5 hurricane), Hurricane Lenny in mid-November 1999, Hurricane Kate in late November 1985 which was the latest major hurricane formation on record until Hurricane Otto (a category 3 storm) of the 2016 hurricane season.

11 Comments
  1. November 10, 2022 11:22 am

    There has to be something to alarm us with given that ‘the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to bring higher-than-average activity, meaning more ferocious storms.’
    https://www.livescience.com/57671-hurricane-season.html

    2022 (to date) 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major

    Mean 1991-2020 14.4 named storms 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major

    Forecast max based on Climate Change Narrative 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major

  2. Mr Robert Christopher permalink
    November 10, 2022 12:56 pm

    O/T Yet another failure by the Green Enthusiasts, in the Galapagos Islands:

  3. November 10, 2022 1:04 pm

    Yes, we are supposed to get the rain from this tomorrow in West Virginia. I am to be doing a wreath laying on the Monongalia Courthouse Square at 11:00 for my DAR Chapter at the Veterans Day commemoration. We will see how that goes….. The Veterans Day Parade is tonight w/ no rain predicted. In bad weather, it is a long 3 blocks down High St. carrying our Chapter’s banner.

    It was a lot longer for those who served, so I won’t be whining.

    • Gamecock permalink
      November 10, 2022 9:49 pm

      We are getting outer bands in South Carolina now. Rain not too heavy, but persistent. Winds not too bad, either.

      • November 11, 2022 11:33 am

        We had a very nice Veterans Day Parade last evening. DAR goes down the street early….we point out that were it not for our ancestors there would be no Veterans Day parades.

        It is supposed to rain today for the 11:00 ceremony on the courthouse square. I have my pins on my suit jacket and a raincoat out. Wreath and umbrella ready to go into the car.

  4. It doesn't add up... permalink
    November 10, 2022 3:25 pm

    There are question marks over whether Nicole ever reached hurricane force. It’s only a NHC claim, not substantiated by ground measurements on Grand Bahama. Reports from there suggest it was overblown, so to speak. Nothing like Dorian.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      November 10, 2022 8:49 pm

      This data suggests exaggeration

      https://www.windfinder.com/report/settlement_point_westend

      Reviewing the NHC advisories and discussions it seems that wind speeds were allegedly near 75 mph. Close, but no cigar. Still, with a climate conference going on the temptation to provide narrative must have been enormous.

    • Gamecock permalink
      November 10, 2022 9:51 pm

      If NHC says it was a hurricane, it was a hurricane.

      It may be inaccurate, but it’s official.

      • It doesn't add up... permalink
        November 11, 2022 10:58 am

        That is exactly the problem.

  5. Jordan permalink
    November 10, 2022 11:30 pm

    As Hurricane Nicole is downgraded in Florida, can we look forward to deflation of Windbag Nicola in Sharm el Sheikh?

  6. Bob Webster permalink
    August 4, 2023 6:08 pm

    Paul,

    I came across your story based on “reports” that are somewhat dubious. I wanted you to know the full scope of the nature of reporting on Nicole.

    This might be easiest if I just reproduced the history and my latest inquiry to the “officials” below:

    WRN Feedback – NOAA, > > It’s been nearly nine months since I replied (see email history at bottom) to the reference you provided (a November 9 aircraft report) and I haven’t yet heard back. > > An explanation reply would be appreciated. > > The link you referenced (Nov 27, 2022, at 5:13 PM, WRN Feedback – NOAA Service Account <wrn.feedback@noaa.gov wrn.feedback@noaa.gov>) states: > The hurricane has large intense bands extending quite far from the > center, but does not have a distinct Central Dense Overcast. > Flight-level wind observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft > indicate that the maximum winds are near 65 kt. > My emphasis (highlight) added. > > That is not evidence Nicole was ever a hurricane when it struck Florida a day later. > > “Flight-level wind observations” do not determine what a landfall hurricane is doing at the surface! > > “indicate … near 65 kt” is not a ringing endorsement of labeling Nicole a hurricane even at altitude a day earlier! > > 65 kt = 74.8 mph, minimal hurricane winds must be sustained surface winds of at least 74 mph for two minutes. > > Again, that aircraft estimate at altitude was made a full day before landfall in Florida. > > From your own “Observations” in the Nicole summary of April 6, 2023 (Melbourne, FL) shows that at landfall on November 10, 2022 Nicole showed: >  > > You might have included Vero Beach Airport (where a monitoring station exists) much closer to the landfall. However, I did examine those records and saw nothing that met the threshold for a hurricane. > > Yet the home page of the summary report claims: >  > > The claim of 74 mph winds near Vero Beach are highly dubious given the evidence both on the ground and provided by land stations used by NOAA. > > As you know, areas north of Nicole along Florida’s east coast would have experienced (a) the worst onshore winds & high tides, and (b) the strongest winds with the storms forward motion added to its wind circulation speeds. This area would include Vero Beach, Winter Beach, and Sebastian (also with an airport), all in Indian River County. > > None of the readings for any of the stations along Florida’s east cost, including Vero Beach, show any hurricane-force sustained winds. > > As I live in Winter Beach, just north of Vero Beach, I can provide eyewitness testimony that sustained winds (nor gusts) never reached near minimal hurricane force winds of 74 mph. > > It is incredulous that Nicole remains classified as a landfall hurricane in Florida when there is no evidence to support that claim. > > Only two stations showed wind gusts as high as 74 (Melbourne Beach) and 75 mph (New Smyrna Beach): >  > > Wind gusts are not what determine a hurricane and gusts are notably higher than sustained winds. > > Not one land or sea reporting station shows sustained hurricane force winds at landfall (as erroneously depicted at left). > > I find peculiar the fact that your original summary report included a link to about 30 reporting stations along Florida’s east coast (and three offshore buoys). Yet the revised report scrubbed that link. Could it be that the linked station reports show no hurricane force winds to justify the claim? > > Is there an intent to support the false narrative about atmospheric CO2 and climate change by falsifying reports when the data are at odds with the narrative? > > Or were mistakes made in claiming official measuring stations confirmed Nicole was a hurricane at any time at or after landfall in Florida? > > A clear answer would be appreciated. > > Sincerely, > > Bob Webster > Author: “Looking Out The Window” / “Are Humans Really Responsible for Climate Change?” / “The Trial of Carbon Dioxide in the Court of Public Opinion” > 2881 St. Barts Square > Vero Beach, FL 32967 > (772) 299-4422 (home) > (201) 572-7681 (mobile) > > >>

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