Melting ice brings Chinese threat closer, warns Armed Forces chief
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness/George Lawson
Melting ice caps will enable China’s military forces to “reach into the Atlantic”, the Chief of the Defence Staff has warned.
At an address on Wednesday, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin urged people to consider what effect climate change would have on the security of the nation.
In his annual Royal United Services Institute address, Sir Tony said: “We also need to consider the melting of the ice caps in the coming decades, which will: unleash a difficult new competition for minerals and resources; halve the time it takes for shipping to travel between Asia and Europe; and surely China’s military forces will start to reach into the Atlantic?”
The High North becoming more open and accessible due to melting ice caps has been worrying military figures for some time.
As the former first sea lord, Sir Tony previously warned that, as the transit time between Europe and Asia inevitably shortens, so too can the West expect to see China sailing its “growing navy” through the shorter route.
Chinese ships may be able to sail through the Northeast Passage for a couple of weeks weeks in summer, but would have a job getting back home again through two meter ice:
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
In fact this year the Passage was still blocked as late as mid August, and was blocked again by October.
And none of this is going to change for one very good reason. By autumn the sun in the Arctic is already going down over the horizon. And without the sun, the sea quickly refreezes.
It is absurd to believe that China or any other country would send its navy out into the Arctic Ocean in these circumstances.
Which leads to the question why Tony Radakin is making a fool of himself. The only conclusion I can come to is that he is under orders to play the climate card, so as to scare the public.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Fear, Terror, lies
We are determined to control you.
No need to worry Sir Tony, as we are rapidly heading into a Grand Solar Minimum.
He says what he has been told to say by his master at the MOD.
Or maybe he is just thick?
This story made me think of Napoleon and von Paulus, defeated by General Winter.
Meanwhile, what specific threat does Radakin think a Chinese navy poses to England? This is monsters-under-his-bed crap.
A Chinese Sub could destroy off shore wind, tunnels and wires in the English Chanel connecting to Europe and no one might find out which enemy did it.
After All, who really destroyed that Russian Gas Pipeline?
China owns a number of the Arc 7 class icebreaker LNG carriers that move Yamal LNG. This year, China had been selling much of its availabilities into the lucrative European markets until Xi ordered them to stop about 6 weeks ago. Instead of following the Arctic route to the Far East, the LNG Merak, LNG Megrez, LNG Phecda and LNG Dubhe have been going via Suez and Malacca, because the Arctic route is now all but impassable even with an atomic powered purpose built icebreaker heading the convoy. It seems likely that a couple of the Russian sister ships are stuck in the ice, having run the gauntlet too late, but that only be inferred from their non appearance on AIS.
In late summer the route is of course passable to any normal vessel, at least if they keep an iceberg watch.
Arctic ice is at the highest it has been for at least the past 5 years.
Chinese cargo ships have no problem reaching the UK now. Why should military ships not be able to do so if they wanted to?
Cargo ships bring stuff people have purchased, military ships do not come bringing welcome gifts, or they may likely come for evil purposes and could face more resistance.
Tchaikovsky’s “1812 Overture” IS one of my favorite pieces of music.
I don’t know why they put ‘China’s “growing navy”‘ in parenthesis, the rate of naval shipbuilding for the PLAN is well documented. As for the likelihood of the Chinese Navy heading for the Atlantic via the polar route, I’d point out that the merchant ships that take that route were all built for the ice conditions there and the chance that they would risk a thin hulled destroyer or the like are as near zero as makes no odds.
The Chinese Navy would need friendly ports for resupply and maintenance, no doubt the Russians would oblige, but what about the North Atlantic? Maybe an opportunity for an independent Scotland, which would have an “oven-ready” base at Faslane.
If only our Military ‘Intelligence’ had the intelligence to read Paul’s posts.
JULY 17, 2019 – “Icebreaker headed for North Pole turned back by thicker ice than expected”
NOVEMBER 30, 2021 – “Deep freeze in Arctic Europe sends power prices soaring”
Kronprinz Hakkon was very interesting. They relied on ‘measurements’ of ice thickness from the DMI. They plotted a route with no more than 1m thickness, but found themselves confronted by a wall 2.5m thick. They searched the perimeter for a route but found nowhere with thinner ice. So they had to turn back. The DMI’s ‘measurements’ are a model, not actual measurements.
Since then the DMI have decided they were over-estimating ice thickness and reduced their ‘measurements’. It seems to be yet another case of ‘my model trumps your actual measurement’, but I have never had an explanation.
Before that I had regarded the DMI as reliably truthful, now I do not.
Thanks for that additional info, Harry.
Like all climate scare-mongering stories no solutions are offered.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed.” H.L. Mencken.
So the Chief of UK Defence staff reveals himself to be an ignorant baffoon. Russia must be quivering in their boots. Next i expect he’ll announce all UK military vehicles will be wind powered next year. Sailing ships for the RN, kites for the RAF and windsurfers for the Tank corps.
Still, Im all in favour of the UK disarming so it can stop causing trouble to the world.
Bob, a wind-powered submarine is an interesting idea!
Jeremy Corbyn is in favor of disarming the United Kingdoms armed forces …..He is a lot more affectionate toward the United Kingdoms enemies though
I am not sure he is under orders but just an ignorant moron underlining how that is no impediment to becoming the chief of our armed forces such as they are.
I read that the ignorant lying oaf Johnson was warmongering again and saying we need to supply ‘armoured cars’ to Ukraine. He must have been reading those WW2 comic books again.
The Royal Navy manages to get Aircraft Carriers into the Sea of Japan, and to South Korea amongst other places in the Western Pacific.
I imagine the People’s Liberation Army Navy can do the same in the opposite direction
The Chinese mapped the Arctic while the Vikings lived in Greenland. It was thawed then as it was in all the other warmer times, this is known because Greenland Ice Core Records indicate the most ice accumulations are always in the warmest times. The ice volumes in Greenland interior grew while the Vikings were moving there, even though the ice at the edges of ice sheets and tails of glaciers were still retreating. Ice accumulated for hundreds of years and then pushed the Vikings out as advancing ice pushed Climate into the little ice age. It snows more in warmest times when the Arctic is thawed and more ice causes a colder time and causes the sea ice to form and stop the evaporation and snowfall. The ice spreads and cools the climate more until the ice is depleted and thinned and then the ice retreats. This is why there have been and will be alternating warmer times with retreated ice and colder times with advanced ice.
History and Data both document this natural behavior of the Climate Systems.
1421 by Gavin Mackenzie describes the voyages
Are you a ” 50 cent troll ” ?
The Arctic was not ” thawed ” while the Norse colonists inhabited the western Arctic nor during the previous climatic optimums. Indeed you contradicted your own argument : ” this is known because Greenland ice core records indicate the most ice accumulations are always in the warmest times ” .. So riddle me this : how did glaciers expand and the ice cap accrete if the ice thawed ? …… As for the Chinese treasure fleets of the Middle Ages , there is documentary evidence they explored and mapped the Indian Ocean and the Pacific but not the northern Atlantic By the 1420’s the LIA sea ice and glaciers had resurged even though the early 15th century was a warmer intermission …There are many holes in Gavin Menzies thesis
The SEA ICE Thaws and promotes evaporation and snowfall and the most ice accumulation on the old ice in the center of the ice sheets and glaciers. The ice volume grows as the ice accumulation piles on more and more ice. In the early part of the Vikings time in Greenland the edges of the ice sheets and tails of the glaciers had thinned and were retreating, even as the ice volume was growing on top of the old ice. During the several hundred years the Vikings were in Greenland, the more volume and weight causes the ice to spread and advance faster than the ice was being lost at the tails of glaciers and edges of ice sheets.
AGAIN, SEA ICE MUST BE REMOVED TO GET EVAPORATION AND SNOWFALL ON GREENLAND TO CAUSE MOST ICE ACCUMULATION.
IT DOES NOT SNOW AS MUCH ON GREENLAND WHEN THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS FROZEN. ICE CORE RECORDS SHOW LEAST ICE ACCUMULATION IN COLDEST TIMES.
So why is there excessive ice accretion in the Antarctic in the modern warming period contrasted with sea ice and glacial depletion in Greenland as temperatures warmed ” popesclimatetheory ” ?…Did you receive your idea from the Holy See ? ……How do you explain western Arctic glacial retreat and sea ice thinning in the early 1920’s chronicled in the 1922 Monthly Weather Review …I have actually examined the historical sea ice records around Iceland and Greenland on the Appinsys website and the data does not vindicate your theory at all ..
We can start with a example closer to home, away from the Arctic Ocean.
Buffalo New York, USA recently got seven feet of snow in parts of the city from “ONE LAKE EFFECT SNOWSTORM”! When Lake Erie is warmer and thawed, the Arctic Wind picks up water vapor from Lake Erie thawed surface and dumps huge snowfalls on Buffalo and surrounding land. When it is colder and Lake Erie is frozen, Buffalo and surrounding land do not get Lake Effect Snowfall and their snows are much, much, less.
The Arctic Ocean and the Antarctic Oceans work the same way, the ice accumulation is most when the oceans are warmer and thawed, and ice accumulation is least when the oceans are colder and covered with sea ice.
This is why warmer climate is not a cause for panic about sea level rise, that is when the sea levels go down. The Alarmists do not even know about this, they have never even read about the ice age theory of Maurice Ewing and William Donn, that was proposed in the 1950’s. It snows more in warmer times and advancing ice ends the warmer times and causes the little ice ages. It then snows less in colder times and after the ice sheets and glaciers thin and retreat, it warms into the next warmer time, like this natural modern warm time.
It is supposed to be warm now, we just came out of a little ice age.
You wrote: …Did you receive your idea from the Holy See ?
No, he is an extreme climate alarmist.
You wrote: How do you explain western Arctic glacial retreat and sea ice thinning in the early 1920’s chronicled in the 1922 Monthly Weather Review
There is nothing to explain, it apparently happened that a few years were warmer and it got colder after, it was after all, as you wrote, chronicled in the 1922 Monthly Weather Review.
Was there some point you were trying to make?
” We can start with a [sic] example close to home away from the Arctic ocean ”
Moving the goalposts
“There is nothing to explain it apparently happened that a few years were warmer and it got colder after ” ….
Not a ‘few years ” at all …You would have been wiser to undertake some more in depth research rather than rely on one anecodotal source . The rapid Greenland / Western Arctic warming lasted two decades and as you can see from the Icelandic and eastern Greenland sea ice indexes enclosed in the appinsys blog article , the temperature increase and melting was prolific and exceeded the rate of sea ice and glacier volume losses of the later 20th century https://appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/RS_Greenland.htm
The problem with your argument is its absence of equivocation and omission of the climatic triggers that spur glacial and sea ice expansion : ” it snows more in warmer times and advancing ice ends the warmer times and causes the little ice ages ” .. There were copious deep snowfalls in the 17th century Maunder Minimum. Furthermore, advancing ice per se is a response to temperature decline ..It is not the catalyst for little ice ages
He is just trying to fill his ric e bowl
He’s been told that the Arctic is melting
. Both NE and NW passages closed by ice 2021/2 first time since 2009
Why is the language on the nsidc website so negative? Lowest since ..,, Arctic warmness….
Could they be AGW agents?
Chinese navy vs NATO in the North Atlantic = a lot of Chinese scrap sitting on the seabed.
Funny how the BBC etc. shout about tropical nights so much during heatwaves, but ignore all the ice days that must have occurred in the current cold spell.
The other interesting note in the following link is that the MO says 40C could be reached by 2080 under RCP 8.5 – the extreme completely unrealistic scenario. Yet it happened supposedly shortly after and was attributed to global warming. Either way the MO is obviously spouting unscientific garbage.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/coldest-day-uk-climate-projections
Loads of places have recorded lowest maximums below 0C.
http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html
Mr.GN, only the maddest Fear-mongers (and the IPCC of course) now use RCP8.5 at all. It amazes me that so many scientists still believe that CO2 is driving the climate, the evidence is only in dubious models. What the models do seem to infer is that the effective RFF might be about 2.5 W.m2, (whatever the cause): it is the belief that this is CO2 driven that is ridiculous. As the earth warms-up we ought to be taking actions as required to deal with the slow effects of these changes rather than destroying our industry base and health based on an unproveable hypothesis.
You wrote: It amazes me that so many scientists still believe that CO2 is driving the climate
The Climate obscene subsidies have increased from billions to trillions now, those people are not scientists, they are counting the money this is making them. Also, a lot of that money is used to control the media and governments and companies and destroy all who promote honest climate science that would destroy their golden geese.
Elon Musk is exposing some of the lies that were being enforced by Twitter, I hope he also reports the Climate Alarmism Lies.
He might not because it might damage the electric car and battery businesses that have helped increase his wealth. Honest Climate Science would destroy the Green Energy Businesses, because not of them are actually Green.
I concur Paul . This smells of political interference and doctrinal obsession . Admiral Sir Tony Radakan , the Royal Navy command and the MoD’s strategic advisers are perfectly aware of Chinas ambitions to establish a chain of PLAN bases along the African continents Atlantic and Indian ocean coastlines that will ensure the periodically ice constricted Arctic ocean route is completely unecessary ..China already has a Red Sea port facility in Djibouti close to the Suez Canal that is probably a first step forward deterrant base .[ Imagine how much damage PLA missile batteries could do to the canal infrastructure and the Saudi oil fields in just 20 minutes ] There are plans afoot to establish another PLAN base at the Equatorial Guinea port of Bata in the north Atlantic much closer to the United Kingdom and the NATO confederation countries …I would imagine that by 2035 – 2040 if the United Kingdom and other European nations continue on this insane path of self induced economic sabotage to address the non existent threat of catastrophic global warming, China will almost certainly have an archipelago of PLA and PLAN facilities stretching from South East Asia to West Africa unopposed by a sclerotic, moribund United Kingdom NATO and the United States ….It is no secret Lord Stern and Stanley Johnson are – to put it mildly – compromised by intimate connections with Chinese Communist Party officials . The same goes for doyens of the British political establishment and their families lucrative renewable energy investments. It may be worthwhile acting on the rumours of “chinese whispers ‘ undertaking investigations into the MoD and the Royal Navy starting at the top ..
There is no doubt that the Chinese have the scientific and technical ability to sail to Europe by the Arctic route for several months in most years.
Why would they bother?
Europe will drop into the Chinese lap like an over-ripe plum; thanks to the Chinese having won the war (by other means) that they have been waging successfully since Xi Jinping took over.
And this highly paid Naval plonker hasn’t even realised! Too busy, no doubt, contemplating his Navel.
I agree with you Martin ….The Chinese Communist Party and the PLA ‘s ” asymmetrical warfare ” magic weapons ” armoury will ensure the PLAN exploiting the Arctic ocean route is the least of NATO’s concerns
In any case, it doesn’t make sense.
How much time did General Galtieri and Admiral Massera spend planning an Argentinian armada to conquer the UK? (OK, we still had an Army, Navy & AirForce then.)
The only time the Chinese navy will visit the UK is to set up a base here, once our treasonous politicians have signed up to the Belt and Road initiative.
Then they might sail around making long bacon, gurning and mooning at any remaining Brits they can see.
I have served with one former CDS and 2 former CASs. Yes-men and not very bright. The more enlightened pilots leave the Service and make a fortune as airline pilots whilst these muppets climb on each other’s backs to get to the ‘top’. Has the present CDS not looked at a map – the Chinese Navy would have to sail through the Bering straight to gain access to the Arctic Sea. Not may would make it. No, they are happy Belt-and-Roading it to extend their reach and resupply to the west coast of Africa.