“Global Warming Causes Cold Weather” Theory Rises From The Dead Again!
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
This pile of fraud comes around every winter:
The data is clear: Rising global temperatures mean winters are getting milder, on average, and the sort of record-setting cold that spanned the country Friday is becoming rarer. But at the same time, global warming may be altering atmospheric patterns and pushing harsh outbreaks of polar air to normally moderate climates, according to scientists who are actively debating the link.
Drastic changes in the Arctic, which is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, are at the center of the discussion. Shifts in Arctic ice and snow cover are triggering atmospheric patterns that allow polar air to spread southward more often, according to recent research.
“We’ve seen the same situation basically the last three years in a row,” said Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts. “Here we go again.”
But understanding any link between planetary warming and extreme cold remains a work in progress. Many climate scientists still emphasize that even if frigid air escapes the Arctic more often, that air will nonetheless become milder over time.
The debate started with a research paper Francis co-authored in 2012. It gets revived whenever an extreme-cold event creates headlines, such as in 2021, when Texas’s energy grid was overwhelmed by a storm that killed 246 people.
Francis’s research hypothesized that Arctic warming was reducing the contrast between polar and tropical temperatures, weakening the jet stream, a band of strong winds in the upper atmosphere that helps guide weather patterns. A weaker jet stream would allow weather systems to more easily swing from the Arctic down into mid-latitude regions that typically have temperate climates.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/23/climate-change-impact-cold-weather/
Jennifer Francis has been peddling this nonsense for years, and has no doubt done very well out of it. But she has never been able to prove that these extreme cold spells are actually becoming more frequent, which is surely the first thing you should do before postulating a theory!
Let’s take the current outbreak of Arctic weather in the US, which is centred on the Upper Mid-West at the moment. According to NOAA, extremely cold winters used to be much more common there. The only one in recent years was in 2013/14:.
Averages of course can hide all sorts of extremes. But NOAA’s US Climate Extremes Index, which is designed to identify and quantify extreme weather, shows a similar picture:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/cei/graph/en/12-02/2
Jennifer Francis’ modus operandi is to wait for the inevitable outbreak of cold weather somewhere in the world, and shout “global warming”! But since there is no evidence that extreme cold outbreaks are becoming more frequent, her theory falls at the first fence.
WORD OF WARNING!
I should point out that all of the above NOAA graphs are not based on actual temperature data, but rather on NOAA’s homogenised estimates. It could therefore be that Jennifer Francis is perfectly correct, in which case NOAA’s temperature trends are fictitious!
Take your pick!
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
This is what happens when so-called “scientists” are allowed to ignore the Scientific Method.
Well I believe Jennifer, averages hide all the extremes we’re going to get from areas of warm sea surface, adding energy to storms and creating meandering jet streams as we keep seeing over America, plus of course the atmospheric rivers, but it’s all karma cos you guys did the most emissions from concrete and cars
If global warming causes both milder winters and colder winters, it would seem that global cooling is impossible.
If global warming causes both milder winters and colder winters, the mildness or coldness of winters cannot be a test of global warming. Therefore winter mildness or coldness is not evidence of global warming.
” Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of of Catch 22 and let out a respectful whistle . ” Thats some catch , that Catch 22 ” he observed “Its the best there is ” Doc Danneka agreed
That passage would have made for a perfect introduction
to your global warming polar vortex necromancy blog
post Paul . Nowadays theres a better Catch 22 and it hails from the voodoo science of Jennifer Francis, Mike Mann and John Holdren – not Joseph Hellers classic novel .
I was reminded when I heard the words “worst in 40 years” where I was 40 years ago: Montana, 1982 and the temperature was -43 degrees F. Everybody there just shrugged and said “typical”. There really is nothing new in this!
‘Scientists say Arctic warming could be to blame for blasts of extreme cold’
Whenever I read ‘scientists say,’ I do it in my best Jeremy Clarkson voice.
They had this sorted a while back:
“The Social Simulation of the Public Perception of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change” Dennis Bray and Simon Shackley, (September 2004. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research).
“We suggest that, in the realm of the public, forces act to maintain or denounce a perceived reality which has already been constructed. That is, an issue introduced by science (or media for that matter) needs continual expression of confirmation if it is to be maintained as an issue.
In this paper, we explore under what conditions belief in global warming or climate change, as identified and defined by experience, science and the media, can be maintained in the public’s perception.
To endorse policy change people must ‘believe’that global warming will become a reality some time in the future. Only the experience of positive temperature anomalies will be registered as indication of change if the issue is framed as global warming.
Both positive and negative temperature anomalies will be registered in experience as indication of change if the issue is framed as climate change.
We propose that in those countries where climate change has become the predominant popular term for the phenomenon, unseasonably cold temperatures, for example, are also interpreted to reflect climate change/global warming.”
Excellent analysis!
To their purposes, they NEVER define climate change.
Perhaps if the WashPost cancelled or Platformed Jennifer Francis the Weather would improve? Is that too much to ask?
“NOAA graphs are not based on actual temperature data, but rather on NOAA’s homogenised estimates. It could therefore be that Jennifer Francis is perfectly correct, in which case NOAA’s temperature trends are fictitious!”
My money says that all the NOAA geniuses and Jennifer Francis are charlatans.
This will be nothing compared to the wholesale sophistry, deceit and fraud that will emanate from these charlatans when the inevitable cool period arrives in the near future.
Agreed. I believe that Net Zero will continue to be pursued even if average global temperature is found to be falling.
Don’t be daft! It will never fall whilst “Climate Scientists [TM]” have control of the data.
Over the last seven years average global temperature has been falling…
Climate at a Glance: Global Land and Ocean:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/all/7/2016-2022?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=2016&endtrendyear=2022
Well it’s always good not to over produce plastic or smog – hey maybe even leave do energy for the future, nothing but upsides to scaling back on carbon consumption and people generally- a few other animals is nice also
The following was written about Antarctica by Alistair Fothergill in his book ‘Life in the Freezer’, published in 1993 before the current climate change hysteria really got a grip:
Beneath your feet at the South pole lie over 3000 metres (about 9800 feet) of ice, 4000 metres (13,123 feet) in parts, which rests not on the sea but on land. Antarctica is a frozen continent larger than Europe, larger even than the United States and Mexico combined. A massive icecap covers 98 percent of that land, swallowing a continent higher than any on Earth. The length of the polar winter night increases with latitude until at the pole itself, the sun sets just once a year. For a while after it disappears, the setting sun provides aglow above the horizon, and then leaves the polar world in complete darkness for half the year.
The warmth the polar regions absorb in the summer is far less than the heat they lose in the winter. Only in November and December, the very height of the Antarctic summer, does the South pole actually gain heat. The Antarctic is much colder than the Arctic. The average winter temperature in the Antarctic is minus 60 degrees Celsius. Even on a good summer’s day it’s minus 30 degrees Celsius, colder than the coldest winter’s night at the North Pole. Antarctica is the highest continent on Earth, three times higher than any other.
There are larger waves, stronger winds, and more powerful currents in the Southern Ocean than anywhere else on the globe. Icebergs are a real threat to shipping. At times they show up on the radar screen as hundreds on tiny white dots, which in reality could be an iceberg which could easily sink the largest vessel. It is absolutely essential to keep a lookout posted around the clock, and many captains prefer to avoid travelling at night whenever there are lots of icebergs about. On land, cold air from the high continental plateau rushes down the gradient to the sea causing katabatic winds. These can reach over 300 kilometres an hour and add terrifying windchill to the already freezing conditions.
If you sail around Antarctica, you will see mainly white ice. Sometimes it towers over you as mighty ice shelves. Elsewhere great glaciers tumble into the ocean, calving off icebergs which make navigation very dangerous.
Fast forward to the present. Greenpeace on its website states that ‘… parts of the Antarctic are warming three times as fast as other parts of our planet. Scientists recently recorded its warmest day ever – a distinctly not-freezing 17.5°C’ and also that ‘Changing ocean temperatures are also important, because they warm the massive Antarctic glaciers from below, making them less stable.’
Quite how changing ocean temperatures are warming the Antarctic glaciers from below given that the Antarctic is a land mass below ten thousand feet or so of ice is not explained – but then, who needs explanations, the scary story is what counts. And where exactly was the claimed temperature of 17.5 degrees measured, and under what circumstances? The British Antarctic survey states; ‘Around the coasts of Antarctica, temperatures are generally close to freezing in the summer (December-February) months, or even slightly positive in the northern part of the Antarctic Peninsula. During winter, monthly mean temperatures at coastal stations are between -10°C and -30°C but temperatures may briefly rise towards freezing when winter storms bring warm air towards the Antarctic coast. Conditions on the high interior plateau are much colder as a result of its higher elevation, higher latitude and greater distance from the ocean. Here, summer temperatures struggle to get above -20°C and monthly means fall below -60°C in winter. Vostok station holds the record for the lowest ever temperature recorded on the surface of the Earth (-89.2°C).
Greenpeace also states that ‘ Glaciers form on the Antarctic landmass as snowfall compresses into ice over time, and they flow under their own weight towards the ocean – like a very slow river. But as these glaciers feel the heat of a warmer ocean underneath them, they speed up their slow march to the coast, causing big chunks of ice to break off into the sea as icebergs at a faster speed. The melting and break down of glaciers into the ocean raises sea levels all around the world. Antarctic glaciers are now losing ice faster than snow is falling to add new ice. The rate at which Antarctic ice sheets melt under increasing temperatures will affect coastal communities globally, whether living in small island states or mega-cities.’
Yet there have clearly always been plenty of icebergs in the Southern Ocean. Greenpeace is yet again telling us fairy stories (to put it politely).
Great essay! Excellent summation of FACTS !!
By fluke I suffered the misery of hearing a BBC World Service programme last night titled The Climate Question. 02.32 – 03.00.
This is what the BBC wrote about it :-
How to speak to a climate denier. From climate sceptic to climate campaigner, Sarah Ott grew up in the US surrounded by doubters, listening to out-right deniers. This is the story of what changed her mind. We also hear people’s questions about climate change from Kenya where there’s major drought and we speak to BBC Disinformation Reporter Marco Silva on dealing with climate misinformation. Producer – Mora Morrison. Series Producer Alex Lewis.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct3kk1?partner=uk.co.bbc&origin=share-mobile
“Drastic changes in the Arctic, which is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, are at the center of the discussion.”
(1) If that is true where are the data for the two hemispheres, which when averaged equal the global average?
(2) If that is true why is the 20th century average for the US 48 states five degrees Fahrenheit colder than the 20th century global average?
The US 48 has better temperature data collection than most other places. Unfortunately it also has a reputation for persistent data adjustments to its own records, which miraculously appear to favour a specific climate theory.
That is certainly true. Before there was NOAA it was called the US Weather Bureau. 1917 was the coldest year on record (and it still is). But four years later 1921 was the warmest year on record. It no longer is. NOAA has lowered all the monthly temperatures going back before 1940 (except a few, like California) which made 2012 the warmest.
The Francis hypothesis is blown out of the water (sic) by research in Australia reported in Cosmos, 7th December. It appears that the cause of the higher storm incidence in the southern hemisphere oceans is down to a much stronger jet stream south of the equator. This is put down to the incidence of mountains and land in the Northern hemisphere weakening the jet stream. Land is a poor reservoir of thermal energy compared with the oceans, as pointed out by Catweasle and others. The high incidence of southern storms might be expected to increase the rate of warming in Antarctica, but alas, it remains stubbornly cold. If ‘scientists’ wish to explain the incidence of Arctic ‘bombs’ they will have to look for a more subtle explanation. It is hypothesised that half the change is due to the north/south change in ocean circulation but a far more likely cause is due to the quadrantal change in particulate pollution as most consumer goods manufacturing is located in the Far East, powered by burning coal in vast quantities. The separation of the Northern and Southern hemispheres by land/ ocean unbalance could be altered so as to add a vectoral unbalance in the atmosphere and the generation of these sudden swings in atmospheric circulation. This would be a highly non-linear effect, not recovereable from the crude, ‘steady-state’ models used by climate modellers. Think of the Great Red Spot on Jupiter…
“They” are trying to fill the void between UN climate conferences so that we have a continuous procession of this kerrapp aren’t they?
https://twitter.com/backtolife_2023/status/1607069257342324737
I don’t like to be taken for a complete idiot. I don’t fly to Davos in a private jet, and I don’t listen to angry uneducated teenagers.
The clue is in the statement that they “are debating ” the issue, not researching it. Not collecting masses of date but just “debating”. So anything goes.
“actively debating”…..is this an euphemism for trying to spin doctor the event?
“three years in a row”….possibly look at the La Nina which has been running for about the last 3 years. This is likely to change when El Nino becomes dominant.
I worry when “Senior Scientists” are unable to analyse and adapt their mantra
December 23rd. Good grief. They were at it even before I predicted that they’d be at it. Just the extreme weather attribution study to come now, either from the Met Office, or World Weather Attribution and then the press will be screaming: “US Winter Storm made 10 Times More Likely By Climate Change”, or something similar.
https://jaimejessop.substack.com/p/as-2000-mile-wide-severe-winter-blizzards
This post is such a coincidence as I was earlier reading a similar post on WUWT about The Great Buffalo Blizzard, and in the comments was one poster saying pretty much the same thing about Antarctica warming. To the extent I started to believe ‘he’ was actually Francis. But he got short shrift.
https://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
Thanks for reminding me Stephen
They actually have it back to front, as it is not a warming Arctic which is creating a meridional jet stream, it is the meridional jet stream which is introducing mild air into the Arctic.
Reduced solar cycle activity (evidenced by less sunspots) has its effects…
When the atmosphere contracts, the jets start to meander. The meandering happens because there is a space problem; the same jet stream is jammed into less volume within a shrunken atmosphere; hence the jet streams kink.
https://www.newscats.org/essay-solar-cycle-wave-frequency-linked-to-jet-stream-changes/
Yes, what happens is that more ozone in the stratosphere over the poles raises the temperature which pushes the tropopause down and forces polar air in the troposphere outwards.
Essentially, variability alters the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles.
Thanks for the link oldbrew. I had read before that the change in the jetstream pattern is due to the atmosphere shrinking.
It is worth noting that the total death toll in Texas in February 2021 was around 700. This figure came from the late Robert of iceagenow who was a Texas resident and includes all those who died because they could not receive hospital treatment due to the grid failure, not just those who froze to death in their homes or were overcome by carbon monoxide in trying to heat their homes. The footage of a frozen fish tank in a home was pretty stark.
This letter is from the President of the Royal Society in London to the British Admiralty, dated November 20th, 1817..
….Enjoy….and absorb, please !!!
Letter to Admiralty. 1817:
NB:
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a
considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have
taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold
that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes
in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years,
greatly abated.
(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and
give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more
accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may
now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but
also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant
nations.”
President of the Royal Society, London,
to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817
Sadly, whenever I see the word “scientist”, I now think “liar”. Everything they utter from “Global Warming” to “Covid 19” is a pack of lies. They spew this bilge to maintain their lucrative university or corporate positions. To sway from these false claims by using REAL DATA would threaten their wallets, but not their integrity. They are contemptible.