Why Are The Seas Warming?
By Paul Homewood
By Justin Rowlatt
BBC News Climate editor
Some of the most intense marine heat increases on Earth have developed in seas around the UK and Ireland, the European Space Agency (Esa) says.
Water temperatures are as much as 3 to 4C above the average for this time of year in some areas, according to analysis by Esa and the Met Office.
The sea is particularly warm off the UK’s east coast from Durham to Aberdeen, and off north-west Ireland.
The Met Office says the reason is partly human-caused climate change.
But other, less-understood natural and man-made factors appear to be driving temperatures up further.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65948544
This is part of a wider phenomena, with global SSTs continuing a decades long rise:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html
As Justin Rowlatt writes, this cannot all be blamed on AGW, and natural factors are at play as well. In fact, the heat content of the oceans is so great, that GHGs can have very little direct impact on sea temperatures.
What does have a major impact is the power of the sun. And according to Prof Ole Humlum, solar irradiance, effectively the amount of energy emitted by the sun, rose steadily through the 20thC,although there is no data since 2014:
When you add in the reduction in cloud cover during the 1990s, you have a very powerful mechanism for ocean warming:
Instead of demonising fossil fuels, we should be trying to understand these natural forces first.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
I sent a message to the BBC regarding this and mentioned that Arctic temperatures were over 2C colder than they were six years ago, and this spring and last were the coldest I could since records began in 1959 This was from the Danish Meteorological Institute. Also Greenland Ice is not melting very fast this year, almost the same as it was back in February. I thought that this would has been more newsworthy. Not had a reply yet.
Try a complaint.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints
Thanks for that, I will.
Don’t expect them to concede anything.
It’s just the sea surface temperature, anyway, you could still get hypothermia! There has been a lack of mixing, calm seas and a lot of sun, owing to prolonged high pressure. It’ll diminish soon enough. The 2m sea temperature anomaly is only moderately raised. You can check both on climate reanalyzer.
Surely atmospheric pressure is regional and localised and a feature of weather systems. So can you simply say there has been a lot of high pressure?
Precisely, the ‘ marine heatwave’ around the UK is exactly that, a localised event, the same shape as the high pressure system that has been sitting over us for weeks.
The sea temperature readings do vary all around the world , with some places being hotter than others .
But everybody should be aware that the measurement system has been changed
. It used to be taken from ships , buckets and then intake readings . But now it is done with bouys .
As these have been reading lower temps than the old system , the figures are adjusted . And you can be sure the adjustments are always higher , because they would not allow the people to know the real facts .
Concerning sea surface temperatures.
Note that in the decades before the advent of the significant coverage of the oceans by the buoy networks, the ocean temperature data was acquired in the main by ship’s engine room water inlet temperature data or by measuring the temperature in buckets thrown over the side on a rope.
Ship’s engine cooling water inlet temperature data is acquired from the engine room cooling inlet temperature gauges by the engineers at their convenience, there is no protocol for the recording of the temperatures.
There is no standard for either the location of the inlets with regard especially to depth below the surface, the position in the pipework of the measuring instruments or the time of day the reading is taken and the position of the temperature sensor may be anywhere between the hull of the ship and the engine cylinder head itself.
The instruments themselves are of industrial quality, their limit of error in °C per DIN EN 13190 is ±2 deg C. for a class 2 instrument or sometimes even ±4 deg. C, as can be seen in the tables here: DS_IN0007_GB_1334.pdf . After installation it is exceptionally unlikely that they are ever checked for calibration.
It is not clear how such readings can be compared with the readings from buoy instruments specified (optimistically IMO) to a limit of error of tenths or even hundreds of a degree C. or why they are considered to have any value whatsoever for the purposes to which they are put, which is to produce historic trends apparently precise to 0.001 deg. C upon which spending of literally trillions of £/$/whatever are decided.
But hey, this is climate “science” we’re discussing so why would a little thing like that matter?
Always worth re-reading this paper when the hot ocean bogeyman is raised again:
“Yes, the Ocean Has Warmed; No, It’s Not Global Warming” by (the late) Dr. Robert E. Stevenson
https://21sci-tech.com/articles/ocean.html
Stevenson describes the “bucket” method from 1st hand experience: “I would guess that any bucket-temperature measurement that was closer to the actual temperature by better than 0.5° was an accident, or a good guess. But then, no one ever knew whether or not it was good or bad.”
Well worth reading.
We’ve had a high pressure parked over the UK for about six weeks or more. The last time wind turbines gave more than 10GW was mid April. Wind has been non-existent on the other hand the Solar PV has been going great guns.
So I’d say six weeks sun and no wind would lead to higher than normal temperatures in the top couple of inches of the sea.
Rowlatt was on at lunchtime with the usual doom and gloom. He claimed scientists did know the reason for the warming.
Higher than average, a figure whose data set must contain figures higher than the average.
OMG! The water in the North Atlantic has turned red!
The North Sea is BLOOD RED due to being 4C higher than average.
BBC, editorializing with the color palette. The Baltic looks like a Google Maps traffic jam.
The most accurate (so far) prediction of global temperature I’m aware of is to be found in Abdussamatov’s 2008 paper, The Sun Defines The Climate, calculated from sunspot cycles…
‘The Sun Defines The Climate’ [November 2008]:
Click to access abduss_nkj_2009.pdf
The well known 11 year sun spot cycle is modulated by longer cycles. This solar activity is a proxy for cyclical variations in the sun’s magnetic flux which varies by over 20%. Other papers hypothesise that changes in the magnetic flux vary the earth’s shielding from cosmic rays which act as a catalyst for cloud formation and consequent albedo – the reflection of solar radiation.
Thanks for the doc link. he is complete agreement with Prof Valentina Zharkova. Its about to get colder.
There should be a good few MW being given off by all those subsea cables…😉
On my blog today, I wrote an article about the likely trigger for nuclear war. Which means the point at which reasonable people would start making our preparations “concrete”. I would be interested in discourse on the subject with anyone with a pragmatic interest.
Likely trigger – the West continuing to push russia into a corner. If Russia starts to suffer badly in Ukraine then Nukes become an option.
Fortunately russia is winning. Just wish they’d hurry up and get it over, but then they have the entire Nato arsenal to destroy first.
Why the West is so keen to provoke a nuclear exchange is beyond me.
Whilst it is important understanding what could trigger a nuclear war, at this stage, I’d rather like to talk to sensible people who want to do some real planning, particularly on the medical side. For example: the boy scout’s first aid badge, for some reason, didn’t include dealing with multiple cases of first degree burns and blunt trauma without any medical assistance.
If Russia is winning, I can’t wait to see what ranks they bring out of storage if they start losing. Not quite why if they are winning they needed to blow up a big dam?
Because Ukraine blew up the dam. Qui bono.
Where is your blog?
Having written significant sections of the Industrial Hardening Manual I am interested.
My blog is Scottish Sceptic (one word) in the .UK domain.
🙂 We know that CO2 can do anything. It simultaneously causes fewer clouds and a more radiant Sun. This combination is necessary for the ocean water between the Tropics to warm. That warm water is mysteriously conveyed to the Baltic Sea giving the map’s appearance of a red and messy “traffic jam”. Then Low Pressure over the North Sea and High Pressure to the east of Latvia, Estonia, and Finland push the red water toward the British Isles. ©
Understanding is the province of the elites. It isn’t for mere mortals
If a bathtub is filled with water which is not warm enough, nobody is daft enough to believe that using space heaters to heat the air in the bathroom will then heat the bath water.
But, without thinking, some people believe that carbon dioxide heated air will make the oceans boil. (some exaggeration)
I heat my water with hot air … it’s called gas heating. And I heat my food in the oven, by heating the air which in turn heats the water. The idea you cannot heat water with air, is totally absurd.
Your analogy does not work! It may be unusual in nature for water to be heated by air, but air temperature still affects water. Sea water is heated by solar IR, (and it can be quite a lot, as I found out once swimming on the coast of Sweden in an enclosed bay, and then diving down a few feet, there was a very distinct change in temperature). And air temperature does affect the water, not by heating it, but by reduced cooling. So, hotter air temperature (at the same humidity) leads to higher ocean temperatures, because there is less cooling.
“Sea water is heated by solar IR”
Sea water is mostly heated by the visible spectrum of Solar output. These wavelengths can go into water many meters until all the energy is transferred to the water or a shallow base. Solar IR is not thought to be the big energy carrier for ocean water.
Sorry to have to say this but you clearly have not got a clue what yo are waffling on about.
Higher water temperatures are good for Britain. Its just like the Gulf Stream
One of the deepest red areas near the shore is here:
https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Lossiemouth/seatemp
It is indeed warm for the time of year, more like what would be expected at the peak in August, no doubt similar to the other ‘hot’ areas.
The BBC expert said these temperatures would be fatal for marine life. What, August temps in June! Really?
And because they are above average? But the average must itself contain temperatures higher than the average!
I get tired of “experts” we are awash with them. Strangely for all of their pontificating is there ONE prediction of woe which came to pass? These experts make Slarty Bardfast and Vroomfondel look credible.
As a child I had several summer holidays in Nairn. I don’t remember the sea being that cold, but going in to more than knee deep seems foolish to me now.
Having once again carefully typed in a possible explanation for sea surface temperatures rising (briefly, oil and surfactant pollution, diatoms being fed with sewage and dissolved silica, smoothing of the surface, lower albedo and less evaporation and fewer salt aerosols) and seeing it vanish…
… could I ask people to check out TCW Defending Freedom bloc post “Are we smoothing the way to global warming?” There’s an image of a smooth covering tens of thousands of square miles.
JF
“seeing it vanish” Use an editor – save – review – copy – paste.
Thanks. I sometimes get complacent and forget to make sure that I’ve jumped through the hoops. It could be worse, Wattsup refuses to let me post anything.
JF
Good old average again. By definition, the average MUST contain numbers higher than the average. So are these temperatures higher than those?
“The time has come,” the Walrus said,
“To talk of many things:
Of shoes–and ships–and sealing-wax–
Of cabbages–and kings–
And why the sea is boiling hot–
And whether pigs have wings.”
certainly the BBC believes pigs can fly
that’s because the BBC live in wonderland
Interesting graph about solar irradiance. It is estimated that the heating potential of a doubling of CO2 is 2 watts/m2. The graph has solar irradiance pegged between 1364 and 1366 watts/m2, right in the zone. Those of us who dismiss 2 watts/m2 as insignificant cannot simultaneously suggest that a shift of 2 watts/m2 solar irradiance is significant. I’m a global warming “denier” all the way, but maybe someone here can clear this up for me.
“…the heating potential of a doubling of CO2 is 2 watts/m2.”
This seems muddled and I rather suspect, in the mental background, there may be confusions between heat and temperature, stocks and flows, temporary and permanent perturbations, the sea and the air…; and difficult questions about the albedo, and day and night, and the seasons…
So it is difficult to help with your seemingly simple request “…clear this up for me.”
The following (largely non-mathematical) books, however, helped me.
They are from an earlier period in Science, and therefore are carefully
written and modest in tone. We are in safe hands with such authors.
First:
https://archive.org/details/heattextbookofph00poynuoft
The first author won the Nobel Prize in Physics (for discovering the electron).
Second:
https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.169267/page/n9/mode/1up
The first author was Vice-President of the Physics Section of the American Association for Advancement of Science.
“The Met Office says the reason is partly human-caused climate change”, Clever people those Met Office Jonnies and Jonniesses. Maybe they would do better at weather prediction if they stuck to that rather than pretending also to be not very good at Oceanography.
Where is the reference to who said that? Where is the fact check BBC? Notice the BBC NEVER fact checks it’s mates singing from the same hymnbook.
Also is it possible that the “Met office” can speak? It is a living person? Is this everyone in the Met office or the fabric of the building(s) it’s self? Maybe it is the janitor or maybe it is just like the rest of the garbage that the activist media and their mates circulate among themselves.
To be clear, for the ever so clever Met Office to be reported as saying so they MUST have statistical empirical data which backs up the claim that man is responsible. Yet the statement is more revealing. It says “partly human caused”? Which part? How many parts? This is where it gets very interesting.
Time to be pedantic.
Something can only be called science if describing a thesis or assertion supported by statistically significant empirical data obtained by a falsifiable methodology. There exists no such data supporting the claim that CO2 liberated and returned to the Carbon Cycle by the actions of man during the last 150 years can in any measurable way be shown to be responsible for all or a measurable part of the current 180 year old warming, the fourth warming in recent human history. If it DID exist then this would be the most famous data in the world so where is it? Oh, no data? So then no science just dogma and no matter how often you and your arts graduate mates in the contaminated media say it, it will never be more than opinion.
SO Mett Office, show the data or retract that unverified statement attributed to you .
” SO Mett Office, show the data or retract that unverified statement attributed to you . ”
I was about to comment on the weasel words from the BBC ” The Met Office says the reason is partly human-caused climate change.” but I’ve nothing to add to PMFB’s post above.
From the BBC article:
“Another factor [of the record heat in the waters around the UK and across the North Atlantic] could be the effects of a reduction in pollution from shipping.
Regulations reducing the sulphur content of fuel burned by ships were brought in by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) in 2020.
This significantly reduces the amount of aerosol particles released into the atmosphere, the IMO says.
But aerosols that pollute the air can also help reflect heat back into space, so removing them may have caused more heat to enter the waters.”
So one ‘solution’ could be to bring more particles into the air. Let’s burn more coal. 🙂
Joe Bastardi has been mentioning that the level of seismic activity in the ring of fire has risen dramatically since the 1980’s. It’s based on another scientists research and we know correlation isn’t causation, but it matches the increase in sea surface temperatures very well.
I think that the real cause of the temperature anomaly around Britain and Ireland is simply the weather pattern. It has been calm and clear for some time. Then yesterday things changed a bit with wet & windy weather arriving. Sea temperatures around the UK rose steadily during the calm period and then fell off a cliff with the change in weather (on 19/06/2023).
To see what I mean, go look at the UK sea temperature records, especially those on the east coast – I choose the Farne Islands as an example:
https://seatemperatures.net/europe/united-kingdom/farne-islands/
My comment about the weather pattern for the UK may also be a cause of the wider elevated sea temperatures in the North Atlantic. There is more than a hint that overall the winds across the sea are lower than normal, which has allowed a build up of heat in the surface layer. Examination of the oceanic heat content (which includes deeper waters below the immediate surface) show that it is not much different to normal for the time of year. i.e. this is a shallow surface effect.
“marine heatwave” is the latest scare story, the media and manipulators who feed them press releases are pushing so many lies, they are tripping over their narratives. The Potsdam institute for climate alarm constantly tells us the Gulf stream is turning off, yet now we have the seas around the British Isles experiencing a “marine heatwave”. They don’t care.
Anyone else notice that when ocean warming is discussed, the units used are not degC/degF which everyone can relate to, but exajoules that very few understand; but when sea surface warming is discussed it’s degC NOT EJs used because in the above local-to-UK example it’d be next to zero?
Not only that but the EJs are always coloured red!