Arctic Ice Refuses To Melt Away
September 27, 2023
By Paul Homewood
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
Arctic sea ice extent has now passed its minimum for this year. According to NSIDC, it dropped to 4.213 million sq km on 17th September:
https://noaadata.apps.nsidc.org/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/
That puts it in the middle of the pack for what we have seen seen since 2007.
I wonder when we’ll get apologies from all of those who predicted it would all be gone years ago?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/09/26/what-happened-to-the-ice-free-arctic/
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
For a long time this spring and summer the ice level was above that in recent years at the same point. It was only quite late that the ice melt overtook a couple of recent years. Weather again, as remnants of Atlantic storms hit Arctic fringes. Followed by a very flat bottom in September.
Lots of coulds and mays in those predictions
Also worth noting is that Arctic temperatures spent much of the spring and summer below the long term climate average.
that’s great, but what of the extremely low antarctic ice levels?
Will they be as low next year? What would you have predicted in 2012 for the Arctic in 2013?
The evidence is clear that Antarctic ice has been corralled by this year’s weather patterns. There is no particular logic to expect that next year won’t go back to more typical patterns that I’m aware of. Perhaps you know of some?
Just like most other lies and propaganda , the claimed Antarctic ice loss is not real . Just a few years ago it was at all time record amounts .
https://notrickszone.com/2023/06/05/scientists-caught-inflating-antarctic-ice-losses-3000-more-than-observations/
Sea ice is a bit lower as the current wind circulation has blown it onshore. When the wind changes it will spread out more. Meanwhile the thickness of ice on Antarctica just keeps increasing by about 12inches a year.
The Antarctic has experiencing a strong northerly air flow which, not surprisingly, has had the effect of pushing is further south. Hence less ice cover but not less ice volume.
Simple, no?
Alternatively it may of experienced more strong Southerly winds that pushed new ice north into warmer waters where it melted. Maybe low ice levels are due to a change in the strength or position of the circumpolar current. Any of these factors could be a brief change, last year also saw low ice area, or they could be a decadal or multidecadal oscillation switching phases which would mean a step change in ice levels from gradual increase to relatively stable or decreasing but at a much lower level. This would be similar to the step change in Arctic ice area which switched from rapid decreases to a pretty flat trend in 2007/08.
What about them? They’ve been at record levels for much of thd last couple of decades – climate change has just suddenly happened there?
@Phoenix44
It’s seasonal change aka Summer.
I wonder when we’ll get apologies from all of those who predicted it would all be gone years ago?
The ‘inevitable’ linear decline of Arctic sea ice predicted by those climate *experts*, supposedly due to a minor trace gas in the atmosphere, is well and truly busted.
Did Wadhams lose his title of ‘expert?’
Press experts are like weather men: you don’t lose your job for being wrong.
So nothing has changed ….climate change is a scam
Nobody even talks about the +1.5degree IPCC target anymore on the news channels …..nobody asks why we doing ‘net-zero’
Climate change is not a scam, Climate has had alternating warmer and colder change for ten thousand years in narrow bounds, climate has had much larger alternating warmer and colder change for a million years and for fifty million years. The scam is saying all that change was caused by only one factor and that a trace gas with increase caused by man. Climate is now in an optimum for life as we know it, temperature regulation is more narrow than any time before the current warm period.
but zealots have hijacked the theme ‘climate change’
Yes, Climate Change is a Natural Change that we did not cause, do not cause and that we never will be able to control for the Climate Systems.
The UNFCC has defined ‘climate change’ as being caused by humans so it is correct to label it a scam.
Their ‘climate change’ is a scam!
Natural “Climate Change” is not a scam!
” The UNFCC has defined ‘climate change’ as being caused by humans ….”
The UNFCC has no proof of this, it is a belief, or possibly an ambition !
Since 2012, September ice has been increasing at about 100,000 sq. km per year.
At this rate, end-of-year ice in the Arctic will weigh so much Earth’s wobble will increase sufficiently to disorient Rudolph the Red-nosed Reindeer and Christmas will have to be canceled.
[“There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.”
― Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi]
Paul
I had the misfortune yesterday afternoon to overhear a programme on R4. where they were baning on as usual about the impending climate disaster/armageddon thing. Mr Manns hocky stick featured prominently in the closing section as if it were the final say on the matter, but of course no solution other that the normal claptrap was forthcoming.
It’s curious how the BBC tries and tries and tries to whitewash the Climategate fraud and Mann’s fraudulent Hockey Stick. A clear example was the BBC TV Programme ‘Climate Change -The Facts’ which tarnished Attenboro by teaming him up with Mann. Subject of formal complaints as every ‘fact’ was fake.
I don’t know about Attenborough being “tarnished” by his association with Mann. He’s managed to do it to himself by becoming, in his old age, a fully fledged eco-zeolot
The Polar Climates are thermostatically controlled by an easy-to-understand process. The Arctic and Antarctic use the same process.
The thermostat setting is the temperature that the sea ice freezes and thaws.
The control is the sea ice that is removed when polar oceans are warm and formed when polar oceans are cold.
Land ice is sequestered more in warm times when polar oceans are open using increased evaporation and snowfall.
Land ice piles up until it flows into the turbulent saltwater chilling the water to cold enough to form sea ice and stop the evaporation and snowfall.
We use salt and ice to freeze homemade ice cream, you need salt and ice and turbulence, the polar regions have that.
Land ice continues to flow into the turbulent saltwater chilling the water to cold enough to form sea ice, this continues until the land ice is depleted, then the polar ocean warms, and the process is repeated.
While the ice is pushed into the currents and cooling the water, in addition to forming sea ice, the cold currents sink and return to the tropics, cooling the rest of the climate system.
It cannot get too hot, out of bounds because there is too much snowfall in warmest times.
It cannot get too cold, out of bounds because there is too little snowfall in coldest times.
In recent years, it appears that the control is in really narrow bounds with very small adjustments.
Ice core records from both polar regions confirm this process is working in both hemispheres.
Modern temperatures are well inside the historic and possible bounds.
Climate cooled over fifty million years as more and more warm tropical currents were diverted into polar oceans by increasing blockage for warm currents near the equator.
As more warm currents were forced into polar regions, that powered the polar ice machines which put more and more cooling ice on land. Ice machines are powered, we use electricity to power ice machines, nature uses solar energy, captured in tropical water and that energy is piped into polar regions to power the polar ice machines.
Over the most recent million years, these alternating warm and cold periods were producing bigger warm periods followed by bigger ice ages, because the bigger warm periods put more ice on land that took longer to thaw.
Suddenly, the recent ten thousand years have been a comparative paradise with much smaller cycles in much more narrow bounds.
Did any of you read Leighton Stewart’s Book, “Fire, Ice and Paradise”
Does any of you ever wonder why the ice ages were getting bigger and bigger and longer and longer and suddenly we have much smaller alternating warm and cold periods?
Ice Ages got bigger because more and more tropical energy was piped into the Arctic to power the Arctic ice machine.
That suddenly stopped after the last major ice age because more water has been sequestered on land as ice, especially on Antarctica, that has not been returned to the oceans. The oceans could not get as deep or as warm, the ice machines now get less power and less water available so there cannot be enough snowfall to initiate another major ice age.
The natural cooling system that nature is using will overpower any other climate forcing, other than the sun, the sun powers all the climate cycles, but the thermostat control of the water in all of its states already counters huge changes in energy into each hemisphere due to the Milankovitch Cycles. Ten thousand years ago the Sun delivered much more energy into the Northern Hemisphere and now it delivers much more energy into the Southern Hemisphere., yet ice core records showed both hemispheres stayed in the same narrow bounds.
The tropics, where there is much water, temperature is regulated in more narrow bounds than polar regions that have alternating summer and winter. In the tropics, warmer results in more cooling tropical precipitation, also powered by the sun.
In dry places, the day and night temperatures can vary greatly.
Some people promote the idea that energy from undersea volcanoes cause significant warming, that may be, but it does not matter, over a longer term to a thermostatically controlled system, it can cause warming but that warming will be countered by more evaporation and precipitation and more snowfall and cooling.
When polar sea ice declines, that is not a time for despair, that is necessary for evaporation and snowfall to replenish the land ice. This is verified by ice core records.
Amazing that a “leading scientist” (how is that decided) can be so wrong so often yet still be considered an expert.
Attention has switched to the Antarctic.
Esoterica.
Arctic sea ice extent is as relevant as Mars polar ice caps. It affects no one I know. It goes up and down every year. Some years more than others.
LESS Arctic sea ice is DESIRABLE. Note similarity to global warming, which is also DESIRABLE.
The Left freaks out because things are getting better.
I am deeply suspicious of the Arctic ice figures. The data comes from the DMI, which I used to trust, but the numbers are a model, they don’t go out and measure. In the 2010s they decided they were over estimating the ice and changed their model. The old numbers seemed to have been unaffected.
In 2019 the Kronprinz Haakon, and new research ship with ice breaking capabilities (class 3) set out to sail to the North Pole, to make a point. They plotted a route that the DMI model said would have no more than 1m thick so within the ships class 3 capabilities. They also took extra equipment (a form of saw) to let them get through ice up to 1.5m.
They failed, they could find no route with ice less than 2m and mostly it was over 2.5m, all in flat contradiction to the DMI model.
Since then the DMI has decided that they were still over estimating the ice and have again adjusted to model to return estimates showing less ice.
They have never commented on the failure of the Haakon or the ice that it found.
Thanks for that about the failure of the Haakon.
Just a thought.
I did suggest that Arctic ice loss was due to Chinese industrial soot.
So the Covid shut-down would lead to an Arctic recovery.
Is this what we are seeing?
R
NSIDC MASIE said it bottomed out at 4,082,566 on Sep 16th. Slightly lower, but still no sign of it disappearing anytime soon.