National Grid’s Claims On Interconnectors Not Credible
By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
More green propaganda from the National Grid:
Interconnectors strengthen security of supply by providing a proven, reliable way for electricity to flow between neighbouring countries. These point-to-point transmission cables are at the heart of the transition to a secure, clean, and affordable energy system for consumers in Great Britain and beyond. Interconnectors are doing what they were built to do – keeping the lights on today and helping to power the nation.
https://www.nationalgrid.com/ventures/interconnected
But just how reliable is this imported supply of electricity?
The National Grid fail to make any mention of the findings of the Panel of Technical Experts, PTE, appointed by the government to advise on electricity capacity each year:
Their findings, which only apply to the years 2026/27 and 2027/28, are damning. Apart from Norway, they advise that we can only rely on getting about two thirds of the theoretical capacity of I/Cs, because of the unreliability of the generation at the other end.
The PTE specifically excludes any assessment of political risk, so simply reflect the availability of generation:
During these years projected, Europe will still be heavily reliant on coal and gas for its electricity – 38% in 2022, for instance. When this starts to be scaled back, and Germany’s nuclear shut down, supply will inevitable become much tighter during periods of stress, so even figures of 60% may not be achievable.
The PTE recommend that the National Grid look much more closely at these risks:
I would have thought that this was absolutely necessary before any our energy supply is mortgaged any further to supplies from Europe.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Todays friends, could be tomorrows enemies! Apart from weakening European generation capabilities over the coming net zero years, if our ex friends were to turn off their interconnectors, in a rather putinesque fashion, then the UK’s national security is greatly undermined and threatened – no nation should be reliant on the goodwill of others, particularly when it has decades worth of indigenous fuels beneath its feet
Ahuh, ONE-WORLD control …..WEF = Western Economic Forum… we have the other (bigger?) half of the world, now with their ( rightly so) own agenda. just saying.
All a bit like building Motorways from nowhere to somewhere with nothing to put on it. Another Cart before the Horse. Back to Wheel barrows – do you Push or Pull them, most easily ? ( Ask a townie )
Russia didn’t stop exporting, some EU nations stopped importing under US State Dept pressure. Then of course ‘someone’ blew up one of the NS pipes. Now Europe is importing LNG at prices treble those of piped NG. A lot from US but incongruously also from Russia. Absolute madness.
Yes, importing Russian oil & gas via India – how very sanctionable
Not correct. Russia cut supply on several pipelines progressively in a bid to influence European policy, This was done to attack the supply of the countries least friendly to Russia first. The Russians had cut supply on Nordstream to zero several weeks before it was blown up. Supply via Poland had been reduced to zero many months previously. Supply to Hungary and Slovakia was maintained, despite the pipes crossing Ukraine, and it still flows.
Russian LNG is transshipped for Asian destinations, some directly ship to ship e.g. off Murmansk, and some via across the dock and reloads ex tankage at Zeebrugge and Montoir. Once the Arctic route reopens much of this will go that way again. The biggest European customer is Spain, with additional quantities sold into Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Portugal.
India has no re-export capacity for gas. So far as oil us concerned, India now imports significant volumes from Russia, freeing up their previous imports of crude and refined products from the Arabian Gulf. In turn, that has fired up diesel and jet to come to Eurooe, while Rotterdam refiners have replaced Ryssian supply with AG crude.
A more recent complucation is that with the Suez route now being unsafe there is much more smuggled transshipped oil oroductbfeeding Rotterdam and Antwerp. This never hoes near India, which is now importing more again from the AG. Also, Russian export product supply has been cut back by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
Ribera: Spain has ‘enormous difficulties with France‘ on cross-border energy links
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/ribera-spain-has-enormous-difficulties-with-france-on-cross-border-energy-links/
See this from Kathryn Porter
https://watt-logic.com/2024/04/28/interconnectors-report-peer-review/
Concise and accurate report.
French end customers are going to soon realise they are paying far more for their electricity when EdF are busily building profits by exporting to UK when the French retail tariff is having a ‘rouge’ day ( ie high prices) when those exports happen. Unsustainable way of providing ‘security of supply’. A few decades ago this sort of thing would literally be illegal as it would contravene national security criteria. Absolute madness.
Putin has a submarine which has a its own mini submarine with some wire/pipe cutters.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-moscow-now-has-free-hand-destroy-enemies-undersea-2023-06-14/
Clearly it’s not reliable when there’s a fishing dispute.
France threatens to cut power to Jersey amid fishing row.
The “Panel of Technical Experts Report on the National Grid ESO Electricity
Capacity Report 2022″ with its de-rating factors for 2025/26 & 2026/27 (Paras #11 & #75) is available here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62d57678e90e071e7f6f71ba/panel-technical-experts-2022-report.pdf
Their 2024/25 version (Paras #11 & #68):
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/60e371138fa8f50abf416f65/panel-technical-experts-report-on-2021-electricity-capacity-report.pdf
Correction: “Their 2021 report covering 2024/25 (Paras #11 & #68) ….
Re: “Panel of Technical Experts Report on the National Grid ESO Electricity Capacity Report 2021”
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/60e371138fa8f50abf416f65/panel-technical-experts-report-on-2021-electricity-capacity-report.pdf
Can anyone explain where the mentioned Interconnector with Germany was supposed beach in Britain?
It gets mentioned by the ‘Technical Experts’ in their tables Paras #11 & #68 as available 2025/26 and was to be de-rated to 61% 🤔
Mention of it in their 2022 & 2023 reports has disappeared.
Next door to BritNed.
https://neuconnect-interconnector.com/neuconnect-continues-strong-construction-progress-as-project-celebrates-6th-anniversary/
I think I foresee more electricity going round in circles, just as with IFA1 and Eleclink.
“Interconnector with Germany …”
Thanks for your link IDAU. 👍
As IDAU states, the Isle of Grain (Kent) alongside BritNed. This website has very accurate global mapping on infrastructure and shows it here.
https://openinframap.org/#8/51.264/0.571
I commented on this on another thread recently. Terrorist attacks at just three substations (Sellindge, Canterbury and Grain) all in Kent could take out 6.4GW of supply from interconnectors alone. This could instantaneously collapse the UK grid.
So as I understand it, we are totally reliant on “others” to sell the UK “spare” capacity, hmmmm, here is a scenario- California produces electrical power, but the power generator is a company we shall call E, this energy is diverted to Nevada and Oregon but California needs its energy, ah ha, E allows its subsidiaries N(E) & O(E) to sell this energy back but at double the price- the public suffer massive price hikes, and the profits flow.
Now imagine that the EU suddenly decided that the UK was not a “friend” and that the IC system was too be used to punish the UK for having the nerve to leave the “Group”, the UK urgently needs power, our wind/solar/tidal/hydro just are not making up the load, what price would YOU pay to keep the lights on- £1,000/kWh, £10,000 or £0- the drive to Smart Meters ties in with the unreliability of “Renewables” and allows price adjustments on a 30min basis, regardless of affordability- the consumers will have one choice, pay it or do without, rationing without end.
We have tied ourselves wholeheartedly to a system that is unsuitable for a modern economy, unless we are prepared for a massive reduction in living standards, including severe energy poverty, we must couple both Fossil and Renewable to ensure the best of both worlds, whilst investing in development of better energy sources.
what are the chances of severe power cuts in 2024/5 winter, very high.
When you say “unsuited to a modern economy”, we need to understand who that “modern economy” is intended to serve.
Is it the citizens, or is it global corporations ? I think we know the answer to that one.
I would argue this system is very suitable for the “modern economy”, but you just need to understand who the system is designed for. And it’s not us.
National Grid ESO confirms Interconnectors cannot be depended upon to deliver dispatchable electricity:
“Interconnectors are generally non-dispatchable, however we do have arrangements that we can deploy if we need them to be dispatchable in the event of a major crisis.”
Indeed: some interconnectors have Capacity Market contracts which oblige them to supply on pain of large penalties if they fail, but only when the Grid declares a capacity emergency. The penalties might turn out not to be large enough when it gets down to arguing about who gets the blackouts or if governments overrule, as the Irish already did during the energy crisis, forbidding electricity exports. Norway also constructed excuses to limit exports.
A few Chinese containerships dragging their anchors and the whole lot can disappear overnight.
Or the MV Dali, of Singapore registry. There are thousands of missiles plying the seas.
secure, clean, and affordable
Secure? One dragged anchor and that is the cable gone and for how long? Clean? The UK has no control at what is attached to the end of the interconnector so it could be a coal fired power station. Affordable? The records have shown that the UK sells cheap and buys expensive. So a NO on all three then.
“One dragged anchor and that is the cable gone and for how long?” Already happened.
https://www.4coffshore.com/news/france-uk-interconnector-severed-due-to-vessel-collision-during-storm-angus-nid7242.html
you would think they would fully understand the risk given it has already happened.
We don’t even have a proper connector between Scotland and England, when it’s blowing a hooley up here we lack the capability to export our surplus power south. I’m currently looking 110MW of wind turbines in the Bay off Aberdeen, stationary in a fairly stiff breeze, even while the UK as a whole is getting almost as much as it is from wind, accordingly to Gridwatch. So we seem to be curtailing wind even when we’re burning gas, but never mind, upgrade the grid (at what cost?) it will work a treat.
Quite right, Paul:
https://cliscep.com/2024/01/20/a-grain-of-truth/
Importing electricity to cope with intermittency and increased demand is one thing, but how then will it be transmitted around the Country to supply an all-electric economy and society?
And… what plans do those exporters have to increase their output by x 3 sufficient to meet their own increased needs and the UK’s?
More incomplete thinking – if there is any thinking.