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Latest global polar bear abundance ‘best guess’ estimate is 39,000 (26,000-58,000)

March 27, 2019

By Paul Homewood


From Dr Susan Crockford:



It’s long past time for polar bear specialists to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate that will never be achieved and determine a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Since they have so far refused to do this, I have done it for them. My extrapolated estimate of 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible.

Polarbear1_wikimedia_Andreas Weith photo Svalbard sm

In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) emailed me to say that their global population size number ‘has never been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand.’

In my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, I contend that this situation will probably never change, so it’s time to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate and generate a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Recent surveys from several critical polar bear subpopulations have given us the information necessary to do this.

These new numbers make it possible to extrapolate from ‘known’ to ‘unknown’ subpopulations within so-called ‘sea ice ecoregions’ (defined in 2007 by polar bear scientists at the US Geological Survey, see Amstrup et al. 2007), as shown below, to update old estimates and generate new ones for never-studied areas.

Population size estimate graph chapter 10


Read the full post here.


It is amazing that the polar bear alarmists, who have been warning about the decline in bear populations, have now turned round and claim that their numbers were just made up all the time!

  1. March 27, 2019 11:42 am

    Rush Limbaugh talked about Susan’s new book on his show yesterday.

  2. A C Osborn permalink
    March 27, 2019 12:10 pm

    Another CAGW Icon bites the dust.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      March 27, 2019 2:23 pm

      Nope, it’s in the list of ‘irrefutable proofs’ now, a zombie fact, like 97%, 40,000 excess deaths…….. they never die.

  3. Gerry, England permalink
    March 27, 2019 1:49 pm

    Given that the alarmists went to the extent of writing an ad hominem report and getting it published is proof that Dr Crockford is correct. When they start screaming you know are hitting the target.

  4. It doesn't add up... permalink
    March 27, 2019 4:12 pm

    I am now in the habit of looking for Susan Crockford’s research findings whenever the issue of polar bears is raised. She is the credible source. It does alarmists no good that they are not.

  5. Joe Public permalink
    March 27, 2019 5:23 pm

  6. March 27, 2019 5:36 pm

    Attenborough’s forthcoming documentary about “Climate Change” was given free publicity on BBC R4 Media Show this afternoon, despite the fact that its to be on Netflix, not on the BBC. The trick employed by R4 is to give publicity to something, in the guise of dealing with something more general, in all cases a favoured person is allowed to broadcast their world view to the nation, with no dissenting voices.

    The producer of this Attenborough thing was asked about politicisation, another BBC trick of appearing to be balanced, but the objective is to dismiss inconvenient arguments. Sure enough the question was dismissed, because the programme will simply be giving “The Facts”, which have been provided by … WWF.

    We can be sure that rapidly declining polar bear numbers will be trotted out as gospel, because WWF says so.

    • March 28, 2019 9:11 am

      Oops, Attenborough “has a series” (actually he just reads the script written by the WWF marketing dept.) called “Our Planet” to be shown on Netflix, … AND a single BBC programme about “Climate Change”, presumably he will just hang on every word from the Climate Consensus Priesthood.

  7. dennisambler permalink
    March 27, 2019 6:43 pm

    But they will still be cashing in on their Polar Bear Tours:


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