Jenny Harries Caught Lying About Heatwave Deaths
By Paul Homewood
We all remember these claims during the summer:
As the UK endured record high temperatures of 40C this summer, there were around 3,000 more deaths in the over-65s than usual in England and Wales – the highest figure since 2004.
Many happened during the hottest days towards the end of July and in early August.
The data comes from a report by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Experts say it shows just how dangerous hot weather can be.
"These estimates show clearly that high temperatures can lead to premature death for those who are vulnerable," said Isabel Oliver, chief scientific officer at the UKHSA.
"A warming climate means we must adapt to living safely with hotter summers in the future."
There were five heat-periods between June and August 2022 – defined as days when the average temperature is greater than 20°C in central England.
During those periods, there were 3,271 excess deaths – 6.2% above the five-year average – out of a total of 56,303 deaths in England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63171417
More recently the claim was repeated by Prof Dame Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, According to the Guardian:
Speaking at the UKHSA’s annual conference in Leeds this week, Harries launched a Centre for Climate and Health Security. She argued that the threat to health should be considered as part of the UK’s broader climate policy, including the commitment to bring greenhouse emissions to net zero by 2050.
This summer, the UK experienced record temperatures of 40.3C and six separate heatwave periods associated with more than 2,800 excess deaths. “If several aeroplanes all exploded and we’d lost that many people it would be front-page news in health protection terms,” Harries said.
Well, we now have the latest data in from the ONS, which shows that Harries was lying, as she must have known at the time when she her speech on Oct 22nd.
According to the ONS, deaths (excl COVID) have been running above the five-year average since April. (The five-year average excludes 2020, in other words 2016-2019, plus 2021)
The chart below focusses in more clearly on this year:
Deaths were well below average in the first three months of the year, but as ONS explain this was because the average was boosted by COVID deaths in early 2021. But since April, excess deaths have been consistently running at between 500 and 1000 a week. During July and August, excess deaths averaged 717/week. In comparison, excess deaths between W/E 29th April, when they started to spike, have averaged 679. During October they hit 906/week.
The excess deaths which Harries was desperate to blame on the heatwave, are clearly part of a much larger problem.
Maybe she should be addressing that problem rather than the imaginary one of heatwaves.
NOTE
The death data is based on date of registration, not actual death. Hence the apparent drop in deaths during W/E 23rd September (Queen’s funeral), and W/E 3rd June (Queen’s Jubilee).
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
‘The excess deaths which Harries was desperate to blame on the heatwave, are clearly part of a much larger problem.’ And on many platforms if you dare to suggest what this might be you get censored and shut down.
‘Maybe she should be addressing that problem rather than the imaginary one of heatwaves.’ Having been at the heart – no pun intended – of creating the problem, she is unlikely to be doing much about addressing it. I wonder if she gets any funding from Bill Gates. I see that the medicines approvals agency is 86% funded by Big Pharma – no conflict of interest there then.
The problem was converting the National Health Service, into the National COVID Service, with people either being unable to access their GPs for assessment & testing, being unable to receive their necessary treatment in hospital or being unwilling to enter a hospital from fear of contracting Covid.
We now have a massive backlog.
7 million awaiting treatment (OK, not having that hip replacement isn’t going to kill them, waiting for cancer treatment might) Nearly 3 million waiting over 18 months for treatment, 300x the pre-pandemic number waiting over a year, only 72% of cancer patients receiving their first assessment within 2 weeks of an urgent GP referal, only 60% receiving their first treatment within 2 months of diagnosis.
There are you reasons.
You forgot to mention the covid vaccines as part of the reason for excess deaths. The yellow card reporting system shows over 2,000 deaths that are believed by medical professionals to be linked to the vaccine. Research carried out before covid came to the conclusion that schemes such as the yellow card or VAERS in the US may only pick up 10% of adverse effects. This would mean that 20,000 people in the UK have been killed by “safe” vaccines. Obviously not all of these happened this year, but vaccine deaths probably account for a significant percentage of excess deaths. Even if probably should be changed to possibly it’s still something that should be investigated but the MSM are as reluctant to question “the science” relating to vaccines as they are to question “the science” relating to climate change.
‘These estimates show clearly’
Heatwaves – a convenient whipping boy on which to lay the blame for the sad state of the NHS for which she and her much decorated colleagues must be held responsible
“The five-year average excludes 2020, in other words 2016-2019, plus 2021”
That’s transparently dishonest. 2021 must include plenty of deaths from Long Lockdown and Long Vaxx. An honest man (or woman) would use 2015-2019.
This summer, the UK experienced record temperatures of 40.3C
No, one small town in Lincolnshire did so, on one day. Other places round the UK varied as usual, some close to that (on that day and the day before), others not so much. Separating the hype from the data is an ongoing battle.
oldbrew
can you confirm which town that was and what day it was and what temperature was claimed.? Thanks.
Coningsby. I was in the local area on the day, max temp as reported 40.3C . This info is easily available to anyone.
As 4 Typhoons took off…
It may be easily available but the one I have got as the record was not one in Lincs, which is why I asked.
Here is the Met Office report
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/record-high-temperatures-verified
They claim it met all the criteria to be accepted but when I did a study of the previous Cambridge record several years ago the site by no means met the standards.
Was the comment about the typhoons a joke or was their plane activity?
Mr Reason, similarly, the long-standing South Carolina state high temperature record was replaced in 2012 with a reading from a ridiculous site. It was a CRN Class 3 at best.
It was transparently a political act. Climate change makes government stupid.
From your Met Office link ” These quality control measures are in accordance with the internationally-agreed World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) standards, which are required to be accepted as official records. ”
In other words we checked the instruments but it does not say we checked the site. There is no way on earth that the site gets even remotely close to an acceptable one.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/53%C2%B005'38.0%22N+0%C2%B010'22.0%22W/@53.0939042,-0.1731158,112m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x5499d9416fcecca0!8m2!3d53.0938889
Could anyone in their right mind think that was an acceptable site?
Ray, I tried to see if I could capture the SC location on google maps; I think I did:
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.9915292,-81.0241547,53m/data=!3m1!1e3!5m1!1e1?hl=en
Note asphalt parking area 20 yards away. Railroad bed 25 yards away. Trees way taller than allowed for CRN station.
You can also see it on Google Earth by searching for “bates house bull street columbia sc.” “Bates house” may be enough.
BWTM: zoom out. This is absolutely an urban location. Preposterous location for state record.
RAF Coningsby is the main fighter base in the UK. They are flying, off a massive concrete runway, all the time.
As has been said, it was recorded at RAF Coningsby. I too was in the area, my car agreed with the 40C plus, as did many of my colleagues around the Nottingham area.
It’s all a bit of a nonsense. Healthy people in the UK do not die of heat or cold (bar exceptional/bizarre circumstances). As the ONS says, it’s mostly just short term mortality displacement, and in that respect cold is worse.
People on their last legs finally expire a few days earlier than they might otherwise. I expect this was posted before, but anyway:-
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessmortalityduringheatperiods/englandandwales1juneto31august2022
As far as I’m aware heat brings death forward by days and weeks possibly months. Cold brings deaths forward months and years. This can be seen in normal years, ones without pandemics and lockdowns, when a peak of vulnerable deaths in a heatwave is followed by a trough in the same group in the following weeks after. The same is not seen after excess.
winter deaths
Whivh is not to say a survivor of winter cold might succumb to a heatwave 6 months later
Thanks for the link. It appears to be complicated.
Excess deaths in UK is occupying an awful lot of main stream media and social media attention.
The greatest statistical minds have now turned their attention to the task of “Can we reliably estimate weekly excess deaths in population statistics ”
Spoiler alert! The answer is a qualified definite maybe, but not in the winter, and you have to define what you mean by “excess deaths”. And only if the “excess ” is above 10%.
UKHSA like modelled data, everything they do is driven by models the whole pandemic response is based on statistical models, they have to use models to forecast outcomes because nothing else exists.
However on occasion UKHSA forget their models are not reality.
I would LOVE to know what “NET ZERO” REALLY means ??? Do they want to reduce CO2 to ZERO ??? or is there another some other meaning ?? As we humans exhale CO2 with every breath they would have to kill us all !!
I believe it means we’ve pushed the problem somewhere else. For example Drax power station doesn’t have to worry about all the CO2 produced to get it’s wood chips delivered.
“When I use a word,”Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”
“And” he didn’t add, “that applies to ‘net-zero’ especially!”
I have queried this many times and the commonest response is that NetZetro is where the rise in CO2 is matched by the reduction in CO2 by whatever means – ie. no movement in the absolute figure.
Thanks – but this still seems to make no sense! Why don’t they say it means NO INCREASE in CO2? which of course would be nonsense as we have no control over farm animals – sheep, cows, horses, etc. and how many animals farmers keep!!
The NetZero explanation that I have received is simply to contra all man-made CO2 . Of course that doesn’t take into account volcanic activity nor outgassing from the oceans. It just shows that NetZero is a theory of religious cranks.
Net Zero refers to the state of the economy. Ask Germany how it is going as in a recent survey 17% of companies had or are considering reducing production, and 8% were looking at relocating production outside Germany – and no doubt the EU as well. In the fabled German car industry it is far worse where as many as 17% are looking to relocate.
Don’t be thick.
It means that any CO2 produced by us burning or making things, is balanced out by the same amount being removed from the atmosphere.
The problem for Harries is that people like Prof Karol Sikora have been proven right.
We need to watch excess deaths carefully as we head into winter proper. More are likely when it gets cold and significant numbers are unable to afford to stay warm enough and well fed enough to stave off conditions they would otherwise survive, yet we will also have the continuing background and its multiple causes: lack of diagnosis and treatment, and new risks that the establishment are unwilling to discuss.
I can think of at least two more reasons for excess deaths, 1. side effects of covid jab and 2. the enormous problems with our third world NHS, which should be renamed as WHS since we treat illegal immigrants better than the oldies who have paid all their lives for the treatment they’ll be lucky to get.
Ms Harries, please provide the death certificates for these 3,000 people.
And, no, virtual death certificates are not acceptable, even though these are virtual deaths.
Everyone with covid dies of covid.
No one with flu dies of flu.
An exaggeration, but you get the idea.
Death certificates aren’t that reliable, they only say what is obvious, known, fashionable, or politically expedient.
“Everyone with covid dies of covid…Death certificates aren’t that reliable…”
Actually, the death certificates are quite discriminating, and the ONS reports them fairly. Thus, for England and Wales, for the week ending October 28, 2022:
“Of the 651 deaths involving Covid-19 in Week 43, 65.7% (428 deaths) had this recorded as the underlying cause of death…”
In other words, 428 died OF covid and 223 merely died WITH covid. With two or three million active cases at any time this autumn, one would expect by the laws of statistics about 3% (300 or 400) of dying people to test positive while in hospital, and this to be an incidental, minor, finding on the death certificate.
On the other 10,594 death certificates, for the week, the doctors seemingly resisted the temptation to be “politically expedient.”
Dave – not so. Death certificates are very unreliable and always have been. There’s plenty of research that shows 50% or more have some sort of error. Doctors tend to attribute death to whatever they “saw” last or whatever has become the default – for a long time invthe UK that was coronary heart disease. The ONS picks a cause from the death certificate – you will see significant increaes in deaths from dementia in recent years because the ONS decided that was the cause it wanted to record. The simple fact is the vast majority of deaths are due to old age yet old age is not even mentioned as a cause by the ONS. It is pretty absurd to record anybody over 80 of dying from something.
I was referring to mentions of Covid-19 on death certificates. And to the fact that Covid-19 seems no longer to be over-used as a cause of death – ever since the U.K. Government decided on a “living with Covid” policy.
In 2013 there were 94,445 autopsies carried out in England by order of Coroners, but only 1,132 hospital autopsies. So, certainly, there does not seem to be an ‘ultimate check’ on the accuracy of death certificates issued in hospital.
To say “always has been” in reference to the unreliableness of death certificates does not seem quite correct when one considers that half a century ago, in the U.S.A. (for example), 60% of deaths were autopsied.
Up here in Scotland it amounted to one really hot day. A puff of hot air from Africa. There wasn’t enough time to die.
Please don’t deny the obvious. People do die in heat waves and the length of the heatwave and night time temperatures matter more to a certain extent than the upper daily temperature. Eventually there’s just no relief.
There were multiple waves of covid deaths this year that lifted the weekly deaths but they didn’t really co-incide with the heat waves. Yes, there will be extra people dying from a lack of early treatment but their conditions would be worsened by heat in their home but also in hospitals that have no air con and nowhere near enough fans. Hospitals are often bad at keeping people hydrated normally but when it’s hot they just don’t spend enough time encouraging the elderly to drink. If people don’t drink enough their blood thickens and it makes them more prone to heart attacks and strokes. Plus they’re more prone to urine infections. Drink plenty and potentially people can be short of things like potassium.
Stick to the reality that heat waves kill in the UK because we aren’t prepared for them (eg air con) but even then the overall numbers of deaths are far lower than annual winter deaths. It’s easier to see patterns using the all cause chart.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2022-to-2023
I spent 10 years living and working in the Lower Gulf. Average daily temperatures during the period May-October were often in the high 40Cs sometimes peaking at 50C. Night time temps rarely dropped below 35C. Humidity during this period is often at 98%. Which in sum makes for a a pretty trying time. Ex-pats and wealthy Arabs were able to avail themselves of aircon. For many poorer residents and immigrant labour all they had was a ceiling fan. If what you claim has the remotest semblance of accuracy then we would have seen people dying in their hundreds every day. Well sorry to disappoint you, but it didn’t happen. Everybody got along just fine.
If you live your life in those conditions the body adapts* but are you telling me you know enough about the patterns of deaths there in the elderly to say whether there are peaks and troughs at different times of the year? Are there differences of average age of death between the rich, with air con and the poor without? Are their hospitals air conditioned and available to the poorest? Especially the immigrant labour? Are those immigrants still there when they reach old age? The baseline in the UK sees over 8000 people dying every week. Do you notice that?
*Similarly the body and society adapts to cold temperatures. Heart attacks and strokes are more common in the winter because blood thickens. This effect can be particularly problematic for people from warmer climates. Another effect seen in colder months is the spread of diseases like flu but closer to the equator sees a different pattern eg some places see outbreaks during the rainy season.
” Please dont deny the obvious ……Stick to the reality that heatwaves kill in the UK because we arent prepared for them “…..
.
What a ridiculous Straw Man .. The United Kingdom – no climatic outlier for heatwaves – experienced heatwaves in 2003 , 1976 , 1921 , 1911[ when London broiled in conditions described as ‘an oven ] and the “Georgian heatwave ” . Temperatures during the 539 – 40 Tudor Droughts ascertained by proxy measurements , almost certainly reached or exceeded 40C There were just no thermometers to record them No one – certainly not Paul – denies human mortality can spike in heatwaves . so your argument is dissembling nonsense The question is one of scale , severity and fidelity to the facts Here in Australia , according to the PERILAUS database , there were more heatwave attributed deaths per decade across the period 1890 – 1939 [ 827 from 1910 – 19 and 803 from 1930 -39 ] when atmospheric CO2 was lower , than any decade afterward. By comparison the accrued national Australian death toll for 2000 – 2009 was 532 coinciding with a larger population ..Australia is a much hotter land than the United Kingdom so who can doubt Dame Jenny Harries has bumped the data and hyperbolized the risk ? This Lysenkoist fudging and deception is not that unusual among public health bureaucrats . Some of them are so ideologically fixated they contradict their own arguments. For example a Victorian Department of Health publication that cited ” the 374 excess estimated deaths ” attributed to the 2009 Victorian heatwave as evidence ” Victoria is experiencing significant impacts from events which are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change ” only to cite a lower heatwave mortality of 167 ‘ estimated deaths ” five years later in 2014 . If heatwave mortality is the preferred measure for a climate crisis and ” more frequent and intense ” extreme weather events how to explain the decrease in Victoria’s recorded heatwave mortality in 2014 compared to 2009 ?…How did that illogical absurdity pass peer review and the editorial standards of the Medical Journal of Australia ? Its all to do with ideology you see . Now turning to your argument that ” the length of the heatwave and night time temperatures matter more to a certain extent than the upper daily temperatures ” how do you reconcile global warming hysteria with the undeniable fact the historical heatwaves of the past were more prolonged and deadly when atmospheric CO2 was below the 360 C threshold ?… Millions perished in the stifling hot weather of 1895 – 1896 , 1921 and 1876 – 78 around the globe Thanks very much for undermining the ‘climate consensus ” Much appreciated . The United Kingdom has not witnessed any heatwaves like the 2003 and 1976 hot spells and Australia has never experienced the weeks long heat of January 1896 that actually extended back to October 1895 or the 1939 heatwaves – nor the mortality figures associated with those heatwaves
It’s not “reality” as it only “appears” in the statistics as excess deaths and as is clearly demonstrated above, there were no excess deaths. And there’s no attempt to show that the supposed excess deaths happened where the supposed heat events happened. I wonder why?
Stop believing what you want to believe and believe reality.
So you didn’t follow the links to the reports that clearly show spikes when the July and August heatwaves happened.
You havent answered the question posed by your own statement TinyCO2 : why were heatwaves so much more protracted and severe decades ago – and heatwave mortalities so much worse – when atmospheric carbon dioxide was lower ?
Curious thing, I know quite a lot of people – me and my wife included – who are over 65 and regularly spend a fair bit of time in places that are considerably warmer than the UK ever is, and I don’t remember a single one of them coming home in a box due to the temperature.
Odd that…
To kick a dead mare . . .
‘This summer, the UK experienced record temperatures of 40.3C and six separate heatwave periods’
This is a STUPID lie. It takes 20 seconds on the internet to learn UK had THREE heatwaves in 2022. It is stupid to lie when anyone can check it in a few seconds.
Too lazy to check? Too confident no one will challenge you? She trusted her source, so no reason to check?
Back in 1983 there was already clear correlation between per-capita energy and life expectancy at birth. Econazis rely on the belief that only Al Gore knows how to read a thermometer.
For once AEP in the DT talks some sense about what is happening at COP27 where lots of rich countries and others are demanding reparation for earlier CO2 emissions. If AEP can see it for what it is I’m sure our politicians can see it as well.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/11/11/cop27-becomes-forum-anti-western-racketeering-deserves-die/
Once upon a time, being caught out lying was career ending and the purveyor shunned from society. The consequences were immense. Now, even when the lie is pointed out, the propaganda arms of the multitude of far left political organisations make sure that if it is reported at all, then it is once only and without opinion.
There are no consequences for lying in the furtherance of the religion. Indeed, it is seen some as virtuous to lie in support of what to assorted useful idiots is an undeniably good cause. “So she lied but it was in a good cause” they will say! This is the infection of our science based institutions by the political left, in this case in support of one of their many anti capitalistic hobbyhorses, Klymytt Sheynsh. There are only positive consequences to come from lying in support of the religion. Salary increases, promotions, likes on F*buk.
The response however could not be more different for those reckless enough to dare to counter the lies with statistically significant empirical data based arguments which challenge the very foundations of the religion. Those are bad people and need to be silenced in the most humiliating ways possible.
It’s been getting warmer with more heatwaves – supposedly – yet longevity has been increasing significantly. The correlation is thus the opposite of what is claimed.
Older persons are more subject to heat stress. One could anticipate then, with the percent of the ageing population increasing through living longer the heat mortality relate would be higher. It is not!
All a person has to do during a heat wave in a modernized country is to lie in the shade with the left arm in a bowl of cool water drawn from the tap and drink regularly but moderately. If anyone is too impatient to do this…
“Only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the noon-day sun.”
Marco Polo described the people of a town in the Arabian Gulf with a source of water in the hills above them. Everyone constructed pools to use the flowing water. They lived and worked so long as temperatures allowed. When it became literally too hot for comfort they would retreat to the pools and sit there with their feet in them. As it got hotter they would slip down lower into the water. As it got cooler they would begin to emerge.
All first-aiders are taught that it is EXTREME ACTIVITY WHILE CLOTHED which is the cause of most ‘heat stroke.’ This can happen even when it is not particularly hot.