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Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply

June 14, 2017
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By Paul Homewood

The latest junk science:

 

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ABSTRACT

We analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period 1961–2013. Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1–3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops—especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world’s key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes— in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation— during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs41885-017-0005-2

  

Meanwhile back in the real world:

 

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http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

Thankfully farmers live in the real world, not a junk scientist’s model.

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16 Comments
  1. Gamecock permalink
    June 14, 2017 1:07 pm

    Another “given global warming, . . . ” study.

    ‘as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models’

    WTF ‘future data?’

    32? Why not one correct one? Averaging junk doesn’t produce good data.

    “I do not believe in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.” – Thomas Carlyle

  2. Dung permalink
    June 14, 2017 1:25 pm

    I believe that this study offers proof of the theory that the world is going to hell in a hand cart.

    • gallopingcamel permalink
      June 15, 2017 6:18 pm

      Maybe it is just McKay’s Madness of Crowds in action.

  3. Curious George permalink
    June 14, 2017 2:16 pm

    “Economics of Disasters and Climate Change”. What a name for a journal. Time is out of joint.

  4. June 14, 2017 2:58 pm

    One of those “Honey I ran the climate model” papers. Not sure how these things get into the journals. A disgrace.

  5. Athelstan permalink
    June 14, 2017 3:01 pm

    “Key words”

    Food supply Climate change Weather extremes Price volatility Staple crops Global

    In my time, it’s been my displeasure to have to read some clutching at complaisant delusion, halfwit meanderings filled with non sequiturs, most of it spewing from the mouths of illiterate children bedazzled and beholden to, the great scam.

    “weather extremes” …………….WTF?

    How, someone please explain to me how mankind can even begin to attempt mitigation of “weather extremes” and I will show you heaven and Bradford city made premier league champions, a champions league double – oh and throw in the FA cup – TRIPLE and no, I don’t support the barmy Bantams, I merely think the impossible…….. and tony blair doing time for war crimes and george soros recants, lightning hits Loch ness monster, the UK labour party have a revelation and support supply side economic reform and small government.

    On the MACRO SCALE……………necessity is allied to, the mothers of survival, Man ‘we’ adapt to nature, not the other way around and besides over the last circa 150 years all due to, a very gently warming atmosphere food grows abundantly and that is beneficial – ain’t it!

  6. eric permalink
    June 14, 2017 6:17 pm

    And the change in productivity has been ??

  7. June 14, 2017 6:43 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  8. nabbiz permalink
    June 14, 2017 9:34 pm

    Where’s the historic plot of CO2 vs time? Methinks it looks a lot like the crop histories.

    • gallopingcamel permalink
      June 15, 2017 6:45 pm

      Now there is a correlation and a causation. Strange that the Media ignore it? Not!

  9. Andy DC permalink
    June 15, 2017 1:05 am

    Meanwhile, looks like another great growing season in the US Cornbelt, with lots of rain and warm temperatures. Not in the bin yet, but at present time, not a hint of drought. There has not been even the slightest trend toward weather related crop reduction, so what is their basis for predicting that? There is none in the real world.

  10. tom0mason permalink
    June 15, 2017 1:08 am

    The major price risk thus far is if the USA’s major wheat, and many other crop, regions do not get a good warm summer soon, the the USA will fall short on exports pushing up world prices.

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