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Arctic Ice Predictions For September

June 30, 2015
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

sio_bargraph_final-700x529

http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2015/june

 

As ever, at this time of year, the Sea Ice Prediction Network have put together a collection of predictions of the minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic this autumn. This year, they have had 32 contributors.

 

The first thing which stands out is the vast range of predictions, particularly the modelled ones. It does not say much for the reliability of climate models if they do not have a clue of what will happen in two months time.

The UK Met Office are forecasting 4.4 million sq km, based on their models. Readers may recall that last year they predicted 4.1 million sq km, well short of the outturn of 5.3 million sq km.

We shall await with bated breath if they get any closer this year!

 

With the ice melt being stubbornly slow, and ice thickness remaining at the highest since 2006, I would be surprised if this year’s extent was not higher than last year.

 

ssmi_ice_ext

http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi_ice_ext.png

 

Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png

 

 

However, most of the multi year ice is still in the western Arctic, so I doubt whether sea ice extent will be as great as in 2006.

 

N_200609_extn

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu//DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_200609_extn.png

 

I’ll therefore predict 5.5 million sq km, which would be the highest since 2006.

 

Finally, I can’t go without mentioning “Professor” Fruit Loop, aka Peter Wadhams, who forecasts that sea ice will shrink to just 0.98 million sq km! Proper scientists will look back in decades to come and wonder how this charlatan got away so long with the rubbish he has been spouting.

 

 

 

And finally, finally competition time!

 

 

 

My wife will draw my the winner’s name out of the hat. The prize of £1000 the middle of a polar mint will be sent to me the winner immediately eventually.

19 Comments
  1. June 30, 2015 2:33 pm

    “….Al Gore said by now,
    The Arctic would have melted;
    Just one of his scare stories
    With which we were pelted.
    No more polar bears either,
    They would soon disappear,
    But the polar bear population
    Is growing year after year…..”
    From: http://rhymeafterrhyme.net/false-predictions/

    • Kartoffel permalink
      July 1, 2015 10:09 am

      Gore the great climatologist debunked, Read L. Casey’s book Dark Winter : How the Sun is Causing a 30 Year cold …

  2. June 30, 2015 3:02 pm

    Thanks, Paul. Good article.
    “With the ice melt being stubbornly slow, and ice thickness remaining at the highest since 2006, I would be surprised if this year’s extent was not higher than last year.”
    And so would I, but, who cares?
    The scare must go on!

  3. June 30, 2015 4:59 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections and commented:
    Sea ice predictions for September 2015.

    A comment about Wadham’s out-of-the-ballpark prediction: In school, when my forecasts were that far afield of the rest, I recall my professors would grill me intensely. Their admonishments included: 1) Never forecast a record, 2) Explain in detail what you see that prompts your result to be so different from the others, and 3) Next class, you’ll be first up to explain why you were wrong.

    So, to Professor Wadham I restate the sage admonishments above. Unfortunately, I have no authority to hold him accountable for his “extra-ordinary” forecast or to give a hot-wash or post-mordem on his failure.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      June 30, 2015 11:46 pm

      Wadham must be thinking of the first 3/4 of the Holocene, not the MSWP we are now in.

  4. June 30, 2015 7:49 pm

    The Arctic Ice Extent game is always fun – but who knows what extent will be since it can be greatly influenced by winds and that is a tough to predict. The big news (besides the woefully inadequate forecasts from the death-spiral crowd) is this year’s thickness. That ice will be tough to blow out of the Arctic.

    Now a question: If Arctic ice minimum lows were to be a harbinger of future woes to Mother Gaia – now that we have plenty of ice; where is the news of the wonderful things that will follow? I’ll wait here.

  5. June 30, 2015 7:58 pm

    The MO was only 25% out – quite good for them.

    • Green Sand permalink
      June 30, 2015 9:16 pm

      Ah, but being the ‘Jewel in the Crown’ they had +/- 24% built in!

      This year they have gone real gung ho with only +/- 20%!

  6. John F. Hultquist permalink
    June 30, 2015 9:31 pm

    The first (left-most) entry is by Wadhams -SIPOG [a low estimate].
    A web page here:
    http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/research/pop/

    … claims the name is now Polar Ocean Physics Group;
    text by Prof Peter Wadhams, 2002.

    See:
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/11/06/ed-hawkins-mocks-peter-wadhams/

  7. Eliza permalink
    June 30, 2015 11:27 pm

    At current rates of melt the minimum this year may well be within normal or even slightly above
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
    You may notice that the melting slope rate this time is significantly less than all previous years. In any case we shall see. BTW even if it went 2std ABOVE at minimum, it would still be a normal event in climate terms

  8. cleanbrass12 permalink
    July 1, 2015 12:50 pm

    I sent Amber Rudd a copy of the “22 Inconvenient Truths” telling her I was worried about the government’s policy as we are predicted to have a VERY HARSH winter this year.

    The reply I received told me that because the article was written on a Blog it would not have been verified by experts and that she was confident that we would keep the lights on this winter.

    First, the blog was Watt’s Up with That, written by one of the most respected physicists in the World and she is talking about, presumably the Diesel Farms which await instructions to start up when the wind drops !!!!! God help us !

  9. July 1, 2015 4:40 pm

    What’s at stake this year? If September average is higher than last year, then it supports the recovery narrative. Slightly lower than 2014 (the consensus prediction) and the generally declining trend is supported. A major fall off in ice extent would be followed by mass media alarm bells.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/07/01/arctic-ice-tipping-point-july-1/

    • AndyG55 permalink
      July 1, 2015 8:26 pm

      “A major fall off in ice extent would be followed by mass media alarm bells.”

      That’s because the manic media have no idea of Arctic sea ice history.

      A major fall off in ice extent would take it back to slightly towards the normality of the first 4/5 of the Holocene, when sea ice was “seasonal” at most, and the Arctic was open for most of the year.

  10. July 1, 2015 8:55 pm

    Anything ‘nutty professor’ Wadhams says about sea ice is guaranteed to be a wild exaggeration, at the very least. ‘Could be gone by 2015’ was only one of his risible claims/forecasts.

  11. July 6, 2015 9:39 am

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see this year match 2006 its been following it very closely…My guess is that we have a 5.75m sq km minimum this year. This is contingent on we don’t get a recurving super typhoon in September like Super Typhoon Nuri a couple years ago driving warm water into the Arctic basin

  12. July 6, 2015 9:42 am

    Reblogged this on kingbum78's Blog and commented:
    Im calling for a 5.75m sq km minimum extent which is slightly lower than 2006 but higher than last year. This is with the caveat that there is no recurving super typhoons in September

  13. Coeur de Lion permalink
    August 4, 2015 1:48 pm

    Surely bloggers must have seen the piece in the Daily Telegraph and Times about Professor Wadhams being nearly pushed off the motorway by an UNMARKED LORRY as he’s an Arctic ice expert and the others of his team have been victims of a wave of assassinations
    – one fell down stairs during a party, one killed by an RTA bicycling to work, one struck by lightning! Very sad. The power of Big Oil.

    • A C Osborn permalink
      August 4, 2015 6:01 pm

      Judging by the lightning strike even Mother Nature is in on the murder conspiracy, which he has since sort of retracted.

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